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Fall Heat Keeps Crowds Moderateby Fred Hazelton October 1, 2014
Splash Mountain, Grizzly River Run and any other attraction that keeps guests wet, cool or indoors will continue to be busy this month. Pair that with Halloween overlays and guests may experience significant bottlenecks if not prepared with a solid touring plan.
Disneyland crowds are hard to predict even for seasoned veterans. Our Disneyland Crowd Calendar is extensively researched by professional statisticians to help you answer "When to go to Disneyland?" This calendar ranks crowds in Disneyland for the next 365 days to help you have the best trip possible. You should use it to:
- Compare two sets of travel dates to see which has the lower crowds.
- See how long the lines will be for your travel dates.
- Decide which Disneyland Touring Plan (if any) to use.
At Disneyland we predicted a crowd level of 6. The actual crowd level was a 6|
At Disney California Adventure we predicted a crowd level of 6. The actual crowd level was a 4
|Our wait times predictions were within 3 minutes for the following attractions: Dumbo the Flying Elephant (-3 min), Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sulley to the Rescue! (-3 min), Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin (-3 min), it's a small world (-3 min), Mr. Toad's Wild Ride (-2 min), Indiana Jones Adventure (-1 min), Jungle Cruise (0 min), Astro Orbitor (+3 min), Mickey's House (+3 min), Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters (+3 min), Autopia (+3 min), The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror (+3 min)|
|We were within 5 minutes: Mickey's Fun Wheel - Swinging (-5 min), Space Mountain (-5 min), California Screamin' (-5 min), Mater's Junkyard Jamboree (-5 min), Peter Pan's Flight (-4 min), Muppet*Vision 3D (+5 min)|
|We were within 7 minutes: Toy Story Midway Mania! (-7 min), Gadget's Go Coaster (-7 min), Grizzly River Run (-7 min), Soarin' Over California (-6 min), Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage (+6 min), Splash Mountain (+7 min), Star Tours: The Adventures Continue (+7 min)|
|We were within 10 minutes: Pirates of the Caribbean (+8 min)|
* The attractions above come from our core group of 25 attractions used in calculating crowd levels. Wait times predictions are the average posted time between 10am and 5pm
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Crowd Levels: Relative Scale, with 1 being least crowded, 10 the most crowded
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The Crowd Calendar Is Based On Wait Times
Our Unofficial Guide researchers have collected wait times in Disneyland Resort for over three years. With this dataset, Fred Hazelton, our professional statistician, updates this calendar every week.
How We Rank Crowds
There are three Crowd Levels listed above, each is based on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being the least crowded conditions and 10 being most crowded. The Resort Crowd Level scale represents the combined wait times at all the standby lines in both Disneyland and Disney California Adventure. The Disneyland and DCA Crowd Levels just predict the relative crowd level for attractions in those parks, respectively.
The Crowd Levels are on a relative scale--an '8' is more crowded than '7' which is more crowded than '6'. The crowd level tells you how each day compares to all other days we have on record. Read more on Crowd Levels.
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