We did our first blog post on FastPass+ availability back in September 2014. Since then, we started showing FastPass+ availability for the current day and the near future at http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/fastpass-availability. Now that we have more than a year’s worth of data, we have sufficient information to dig a bit further into the analysis. The tables below show when same-day FastPass+ reservations run out based on crowd level.
The times listed are the average time when all FastPass+ reservations ran out for each attraction and crowd level. Before this time it may be difficult to get your preferred return time or the quantity you need. If your group size is limiting your options, try breaking your group into smaller sizes and getting FastPass+ reservations that overlap.
A reasonable assumption would be that as crowds increase, the time when FastPass+ reservations run out would decrease. This holds up for the headliner attractions, but not so much for the lower tiered attractions. For the lower tiered attractions, the FastPass+ depletion time is more a function of when the park closes than the crowd level. The data also support the theory that Disney holds back some FastPass+ reservations for day-of guests: even if you see no availability in advance, you may find that availability once you’re in the park.
This analysis suggests that you can be somewhat spontaneous and make changes at the last moment. My last trip was over Presidents’ Day week, the crowds were high, and I was able to make FastPass+ changes every morning.
What has been your experience with using day-of reservations? Did you make changes? Were you able to get additional FastPasses after your initial 3?