Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – May 24 to 30, 2015

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Crowds at Walt Disney World were well above historical levels last week. In 2014, between the Sunday before and the Saturday after Memorial Day no park hit a crowd level above a ‘9’ on our scale. This year during the same week we saw a ’10’ appear six times, including a sweep of ’10’s at all four parks on Sunday, May 24. The lowest crowd level we saw at any park last year during the same period was a ‘3’, this year a ‘7’. Crowds are up at Disney World, no question.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the Disney World Crowd Calendar Report:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, May 24, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
10

Wow! A clean sweep of crowd level ’10’s at all four parks on Sunday. That is something we usually only see during the busiest times of the year. At Magic Kingdom the only core attractions that didn’t reach a ’10’ out of ’10’ were Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin (42 minute average, a ‘9’) and Peter Pan’s Flight (66 minute average, a ‘7’).

Epcot
10
10
Hollywood Studios
9
10
Animal Kingdom
10
10

Monday, May 25, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
9

Monday’s crowds were near Sunday’s levels but not quite as busy at three of the four parks. Memorial Day ranks well down the list of the busiest holidays historically but this year may change that. The Studios hit the max level ’10’ for the second day in a row.

Epcot
8
9
Hollywood Studios
8
10
Animal Kingdom
9
9

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
9

Tuesday’s wait times were a little more in-line with crowd calendar predictions but still skewing higher across all four parks. We saw average wait times like 56 minutes at Jungle Cruise and 69 minutes at Kali River Rapids.

Epcot
8
9
Hollywood Studios
6
9
Animal Kingdom
8
8

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
8

Wednesday was the first day of the week where we saw no park hit a level above ‘8’. Pirates of the Caribbean averaged 34 minutes (predicted 30), Spaceship Earth 27 minutes (22), Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster 60 (55) and Dinosaur 32 minutes (predicted 25).

Epcot
6
7
Hollywood Studios
5
6
Animal Kingdom
4
8

Thursday, May 28, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
9

Thursday’s crowd numbers continued the trend. We saw higher than expected average waits at most attractions. Pirates of the Caribbean averaged 38 minutes (predicted 29), Spaceship Earth 25 minutes (25), Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster 54 (46) and Dinosaur 27 minutes (predicted 26).

Epcot
6
7
Hollywood Studios
4
8
Animal Kingdom
5
7

Friday, May 29, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
8

Friday we saw average wait times like 40 minutes at Big Thunder Mountain Railroad (predicted 41), 79 at Soarin’ (predicted 66), 104 minutes at Toy Story Mania (76), and 47 minutes at Expedition Everest (predicted 40).

Epcot
6
7
Hollywood Studios
5
9
Animal Kingdom
5
8

Saturday, May 30, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
9

Saturday brought the sixth crowd level ’10’ of the week, this time at Disney Hollywood Studios. There we saw average wait times like 47 minutes at Star Tours (predicted 36), 44 minutes at Great Movie Ride (24), 105 at Tower of Terror (61) and 98 minutes at Toy Story Midway Mania (predicted 80).

Epcot
6
8
Hollywood Studios
7
10
Animal Kingdom
6
9
What to Expect This Week
May 31 to June 6, 2015
How Crowded is Disney World?
How Crowded is Disney World?

Memorial Day weekend is over but soon school districts will approach the end of their respective school years and we will see summer crowds begin. June can be a good time of year to visit if your kids are done school in the middle of the month, the peak of summer crowds will not begin until late June.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

10 thoughts on “Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – May 24 to 30, 2015

  • June 2, 2015 at 9:18 am
    Permalink

    Fred, I was at WDW from May 27-June 1. Just got back last night. One thing I noticed about the crowds was a large presence of British accents. Maybe UK schools were already out and this influenced the numbers.

    Reply
  • June 2, 2015 at 9:25 am
    Permalink

    Fred, I disagree. I think the crowds were less then touring plans predicted. I was there memorial day week the last few years, and I think the crowds were lower this year then in years pasted.

    Reply
  • June 3, 2015 at 12:34 am
    Permalink

    We were at the Magic Kingdom on Sunday the 30th and kept saying to each other “no way is this a 6”. We thought maybe a 9 but I feel even better knowing it was a 10. We got so little done after lunch as we are not “10” crowd people and I refuse to wait in 60 minute lines. We ended up leaving early.

    Reply
    • June 3, 2015 at 12:35 am
      Permalink

      Oops, we were there on the 24th!

      Reply
  • June 3, 2015 at 3:59 pm
    Permalink

    We were there 5/23-5/30 and I kept saying “Wow, if this is a (insert predicted level), I don’t want to be here on a more crowded day!” That explains a lot. It took us 3 days in MK to get everything done. I feel a lot better knowing the levels were higher than predicted.

    Reply
  • June 4, 2015 at 12:02 pm
    Permalink

    Fred,

    You guys just plain blew it last week. I lost all faith in your Lines App and in your crowd-estimating methodology after my experience at DHS on Friday 5/29. The Rock & Roller Coaster was down THE ENTIRE DAY, and yet the Lines App continued to display both “posted” and “expected” wait times which varied throughout the day. (This despite a continuous stream of user-posted submissions–visible within the app–reporting that the ride was “offline”!) The official Disney app correctly showed the ride was closed.

    If you look at the detail graphs for DHS on 5/29 on this web site, you’ll see that all the other rides show wait times much longer than your predicted waits, while the RnR Coaster does not. This should also tell you that your data is bogus. Likewise, what conclusion should you draw from the fact that all of the other ride times were up significantly. Is this because there were lots more people in the park than expected? Or because the relatively few major attractions in DHS had to absorb all the crowds that would ordinarily have been in line for the Coaster? If you can’t tell when a ride is down, how would you know the difference?

    The bottom line: Given that your crowd calendar is based on peak wait times, and that you apparently can’t tell when a headliner ride is offline, I don’t understand how I can have any faith in your predictions.

    Neil

    Reply
    • June 4, 2015 at 12:42 pm
      Permalink

      Neil, thanks for the feedback.

      I think this blog post and the data within it clearly shows that you are absolutely right, we blew it last week. However, the predictions missed the mark because last week’s wait times were significantly higher than every equivalent week since 2009, and not just at The Studios.

      I can’t be certain why the app on your device failed to reflect that Rock ‘n’ Coaster was down but I will ask my tech team to take a look. What I do know is that whenever a ride goes down we continue to calculate an internal estimate for the wait times in preparation for the ride’s return. Whenever a park has multiple technical issues like The Studios did last week the wait times can go a little haywire.

      We aim to get every prediction exactly right every day but we understand that there will be times when we are off. It is unfortunate that your experience with the app was during one of these times and we certainly understand your frustration. We accept these misses are inevitable but we also take pride that they don’t happen very often. We have been predicting wait times since 2006 and we do it better than anyone.

      Reply
      • June 6, 2015 at 7:41 pm
        Permalink

        I experienced the same problem on Saturday. RnR was down, and so was ToT for awhile in the morning. I reported both in Lines, which initially showed up as “reported down.” A short time later both appeared to be up and running on the app, but were not in actuality.

        Reply
  • June 4, 2015 at 1:38 pm
    Permalink

    We were in at least one park every day from May 26-June 1. Neither my husband nor I had been to WDW in many years, and it was the first visit for DDs 11 & 15. For all we knew at the time, the crowds we were seeing were in the predicted ranges—we never felt we were completely immobile, and we picked our dates because we HATE crowds. Since our kids were old enough to let us skip character meet-and-greets and the slow-load rides like Dumbo, we cruised through the parks with the personalized TPs.

    The only time we waited in any line for more than 15 minutes was for TGMR, which made us miss a FP+ window for Star Tours because TGMR had a technical problem while we were in the preshow area, but we were able to reschedule the FP+ and move on with the plan. (We were at HS on Thursday, so we didn’t get the major breakdowns.)

    I’ll echo the comment about there being a LOT of UK visitors. Is there a half-term holiday in late May over there?

    Seeing all this info about higher-than-normal crowds means I’m even more impressed with how much sanity the TPs helped me keep!

    Reply
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