Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – September 27 to October 3, 2015

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How Did the Disney World Crowd Calendar Do Last Week?
How Did the Disney World Crowd Calendar Do Last Week?

Crowds surged at Walt Disney World last Saturday but we saw below average crowds the rest of last week except for Monday when the resort was one level higher than the Disney World Crowd Calendar predicted. Disney World crowds in September were significantly busier than we have seen in years passed so last week might be an indication that crowds have returned to levels consistent with historical trends. To be clear, the overall trend is still that crowds are up at Disney World.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, September 27, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
3
5

Overall, crowds on Sunday were as predicted by the Disney World Crowd Calendar thanks to Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios flipping levels. Magic Kingdom continues to set records for crowd levels on days when it hosts Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Parties. Historically, guests have avoided the park during the day since park hours are shortened – not so this year.

Epcot
4
3
Hollywood Studios
5
3
Animal Kingdom
6
6

Monday, September 28, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
7

Monday’s crowds were mysterious with low numbers at Epcot and Animal Kingdom but high numbers at Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios. The Studios still suffers from reduced capacity with so many recent closures placing pressure on the remaining attractions. We expect wait times at the Studios to remain above average for the foreseeable future.

Epcot
3
3
Hollywood Studios
5
8
Animal Kingdom
4
4

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
3

Tuesday (and Thursday) had by far, the lowest crowd levels of the week with no park reaching a crowd level above a level ‘4’. Animal Kingdom was particularly uncrowded with average wait times of 11 minutes at Dinosaur and 10 minutes at Kilimanjaro Safaris.

Epcot
4
4
Hollywood Studios
2
3
Animal Kingdom
3
1

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
3
7

Magic Kingdom’s wait times surged on Wednesday with the park staying open until 10pm without a Halloween Party on the schedule. Peter Pan’s Flight average 71 minutes while Pirates of the Caribbean averaged 41.

Epcot
3
3
Hollywood Studios
2
4
Animal Kingdom
3
1

Thursday, October 1, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
2
2

As much as Wednesday’s crowds surged upwards, Thursday’s crowds plummeted back down to levels we normally see in late September and early October. Hollywood Studios saw its lowest wait times in several months with averages like 12 minutes at Star Tours and 51 minutes at Toy Story Midway Mania.

Epcot
2
3
Hollywood Studios
2
1
Animal Kingdom
3
2

Friday, October 2, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
2
4

Wait times stayed below the middle point of our scale again on Friday although each park was more crowded than predicted by the Disney World Crowd Calendar. Surprisingly, Space Mountain was one of the least crowded attractions with an wait time average of 24 minutes.

Epcot
3
4
Hollywood Studios
2
3
Animal Kingdom
3
4

Saturday, October 3, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
8

All four parks hit crowd levels several points higher than predicted, especially at Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom. At those two parks we saw average waits like 44 minutes at Jungle Cruise and 51 at Kilimanjaro Safaris, the highest of the week, by far.

Epcot
3
6
Hollywood Studios
3
7
Animal Kingdom
4
8
What to Expect This Week
October 4 to 10, 2015

September crowds in 2015 were the largest we have seen for that month since we started tracking crowds in 2006. Last week showed some evidence that perhaps crowds, although still up, may be returning to levels closer to what we have seen historically in October.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

One thought on “Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – September 27 to October 3, 2015

  • October 6, 2015 at 10:29 pm
    Permalink

    Fred, if we are indeed seeing a new dynamic for WDW crowds, how long will it take for that to work its way into the calendar, given that we’re not sure what is causing the changes? Seems like we’d have to collect a whole new set of data before the predictions properly reflect whatever it is we’re seeing.

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