Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – November 15 to 21, 2015

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How Did the Disney World Crowd Calendar Do Last Week?
How Did the Disney World Crowd Calendar Do Last Week?

Crowds at Walt Disney World looked busier than expected on Sunday and Monday last week but otherwise within a reasonable range of what the Calendar predicted. Magic Kingdom and Epcot had the biggest surprises of the week. Epcot in particular showed some wait times much higher than we have seen recently, partly due to some mechanical issues at Test Track and Soarin’. Again last week we saw some wild swings in wait times depending on the day at Animal Kingdom. That park saw crowd levels of ‘1’, ‘3’, ‘4’, ‘6’ and ‘7’.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, November 15, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
8

Only Animal Kingdom hit its predicted level on Sunday while the other three parks were substantially busier than expected. Magic Kingdom at a level ‘8’ was particularly surprising since it closed at 7:00 pm to guests without tickets for Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party. Usually the short park hours keeps the wait times low during the day.

Epcot
4
6
Hollywood Studios
6
9
Animal Kingdom
6
6

Monday, November 16, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
10

Monday’s crowd at Magic Kingdom was shocking. This was the first time that we have seen a crowd level ’10’ at Magic Kingdom in November outside of Thanksgiving week. Peter Pan’s Flight had the highest average wait at 74 minutes (predicted 60) while Winnie the Pooh averaged a remarkable 48 minutes (predicted 32). Disney Hollywood Studios was the only park to match its predicted crowd level at ‘6’.

Epcot
3
7
Hollywood Studios
6
6
Animal Kingdom
4
3

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
5

Tuesday’s crowds were a real mixed bag with Hollywood Studios at a level ‘2’ and Epcot at five levels higher. Epcot’s crowd level surge was solely due to Mission: SPACE and Soarin’. Average wait times at Test Track (55 minutes, predicted 56), Spaceship Earth (16 minutes, predicted 13) and Living with the Land (13 minutes, predicted 13) were very close to predicted levels.

Epcot
3
7
Hollywood Studios
6
2
Animal Kingdom
4
4

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
8

More wide ranges between parks on Wednesday with Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom seven index levels apart. They averaged out nicely making the resort wide crowd level ‘5’ as predicted. Jungle Cruise averaged 50 minutes while Dinosaur averaged 13.

Epcot
3
4
Hollywood Studios
6
5
Animal Kingdom
3
1

Thursday, November 19, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
3

Thursday was the least crowded day of the week, by far. No park hit a crowd level above ‘4’ on Thursday while every other day last week we saw at least one park above a crowd level ‘6’. Magic Kingdom hosted Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party on Thursday which makes Sunday’s crowd level ‘8’ even more impressive.

Epcot
4
4
Hollywood Studios
5
4
Animal Kingdom
3
3

Friday, November 20, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
8

Animal Kingdom was the best park to visit again on Friday with Magic Kingdom surging to a crowd level ‘8’ again while hosting a Christmas Party. Epcot’s wait times during the second half of the week settled down nicely for guests of that park.

Epcot
3
5
Hollywood Studios
6
6
Animal Kingdom
3
3

Saturday, November 21, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
8

Saturday was the busiest day of last week coming in one level higher than predicted, resort-wide. Pirates of the Caribbean averaged 32 minutes (predicted 15), Mission: Space Orange averaged 45 (17), Toy Story Midway Mania averaged 90 (85) and Kilimanjaro Safaris averaged 53 minutes (predicted 36).

Epcot
5
8
Hollywood Studios
6
8
Animal Kingdom
3
7
What to Expect This Week
November 22 to 28, 2015

Thanksgiving crowds will flood Walt Disney World Resort this week, usually starting on Tuesday and lasting until Sunday. Wait times will be extreme all week so make sure you use a touring plan to navigate the parks.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

10 thoughts on “Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – November 15 to 21, 2015

  • November 24, 2015 at 8:48 am
    Permalink

    This is a good guide to plan your trip. I always wait to go when it’s not the summer time, or when it’s not close to a holiday. Aside from summer, the week of Thanksgiving and Christmas are some of the busiest times to go. We also purchase our tickets from tickets2you.com, which can save you money if you’re buying tickets for multiple days. My family and I will be visiting for a few days the week after Christmas and New Years, right after the crowds die down.

    Reply
  • November 24, 2015 at 10:37 am
    Permalink

    I was in MK on Monday and Studios and Epcot on Tuesday and I can attest to the large crowds at both parks that day. MK on Monday was very busy. They extended the park close an hour. But they should have been open even later with so many Christmas parties closing the parks down early every other day.

    Reply
  • November 24, 2015 at 11:22 am
    Permalink

    Thursday they forecast rain starting a little after noon. It didn’t start until 5:30 or so, and even then it stopped raining for an hour or two at around 6:30. I wonder if a lot of people made this their “break” day. We left Epcot early because of it.

    Reply
    • December 1, 2015 at 12:07 am
      Permalink

      Yeah, I’d think that weather forecast would figure into most people’s plans. Sorry you left early.

      Reply
  • November 24, 2015 at 12:21 pm
    Permalink

    I was at MK on Monday and I survived the 10! It didn’t feel as bad as it could have been, because early on 90% of the people were in 2 lines (Mine Train and Anna & Elsa). Thursday was by far the best day of the week and I’m glad we changed our plans and went to MK that day as well. Early on nobody was there, and again those that were, 90% in the same 2 lines. We were able to ride rides like Dumbo, Buzz, etc. 3-6 times in a row. Dumbo they just let us stay in the same elephant and asked if we wanted to go again.

    Reply
    • November 24, 2015 at 3:02 pm
      Permalink

      Stuart, did you use a touring plan from this site? Curious as to how a rope-drop style touring plan from here combats a level 10 crowd.

      On my last trip (in the middle of July), I used a standard turning plan from the Unofficial Guide Book, and never felt like I was in a line for very long at all. Never waiting more than 15 minutes for any attraction except for shows when I was at the mercy of the show schedule, and I visited all four gates. I don’t know what the crowd level was for that week, though.

      Reply
  • November 24, 2015 at 1:58 pm
    Permalink

    We have been here since the 18th and go home Thanksgiving Day. Crowds were very manageable til Saturday. Ever since crowds have been very comparable to Christmas weeks. Today, the 24th was forecast a 5 at MK and it has been every bit of a 10. 5 e-ticket rides have been over 100 min most of the day.

    Reply
  • November 25, 2015 at 7:46 am
    Permalink

    We were in the MK on Monday and Tuesday and like Stuart said, I don’t think Monday felt as bad as I would expect for a 10. Tuesday the crowds were noticeably less. That said, we arrived at opening and left the park at around 2:30 Mon (3:30 Tues) and used a customized touring plan which seemed to really help.

    Reply
  • November 25, 2015 at 10:36 am
    Permalink

    On Tuesday Epcot was the only park open past 7pm and it had magic hours. HS closed at 4pm for a private function, MK had a xmas party and AK closed early per usual. Based on this info alone, I would expect Epcot to be very busy, HS to be very light and the others somewhere in between (since people want to get their money’s worth and stay at the park the whole day). Even with this, I went to dinner at Epcot on Tuesday and the crowds of people (not the lines) was very manageable.

    I was at MK on the Tuesday and it felt less crowded than a 5. I found lots of external factors playing with wait times that were not related to crowds. A dropped resort mug on the mermaid track caused waits to spike to 20 mins early in the morning (it took them 10 mins to get the tool needed to pick up the mug). ETWB had technical problems and shut for a bit. Haunted Mansion had loading issues while I was on the ride, etc.

    Reply
    • November 28, 2015 at 2:48 pm
      Permalink

      Tuesday was our first day ever at Epcot. We hopped from MK around 4. I was surprised to see it was a 7. I think the walkways are bigger there so it can handle bigger crowds better. AK at an 8 on Saturday the 14th was awful, but it has skinner walkways. Could that actually be a factor or am I just an overwhelmed first-timer without a clue? 🙂

      Reply

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