Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – August 2016

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[Disney World Crowd Calendar Reports are back after a lengthy hiatus to fix an issue with some of our crowd calendar calculations. Here is a report for the month of August with a report for September coming soon.]

How Crowded Was Disney World August 7 - 13, 2016?
How Crowded Was Disney World August 7 – 13, 2016?

Crowds at Walt Disney World in early August lagged behind what we saw during the same period last year, especially in the second half of the week. Animal Kingdom was the most unpredictable park of the week with low wait times dragging the resort wide crowd level down a few points most days. Crowd levels at the other three parks were close to predicted levels almost every day.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day between August 7 and August 13, 2016:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, August 7, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
6

Hollywood Studios hit a crowd level ‘8’ as predicted on Sunday thanks to average wait times like 64 minutes at Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster (predicted 69) and 31 minutes at The Great Movie Ride (predicted 27). Crowds at Magic Kingdom and Epcot were within one of the predicted crowd level. Animal Kingdom saw lower than expected wait times.

Epcot
5
6
Hollywood Studios
8
8
Animal Kingdom
6
3

Monday, August 8, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
8

Monday’s predictions missed only at Epcot and Animal Kingdom with wait times pulling the park crowd level down two points from what the Disney World Crowd Calendar predicted. Magic Kingdom saw average wait times like 39 minutes at Buzz Lightyear (predicted 37), 44 minutes at Jungle Cruise (45), 70 at Peter Pan’s Flight (75) and 79 at Space Mountain (predicted 75).

Epcot
7
5
Hollywood Studios
8
8
Animal Kingdom
6
4

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
8

Tuesday saw equivalent crowds as the day before at Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios but Epcot and Animal Kingdom were much more crowded. Soarin’ averaged 72 minutes (predicted 62), Test Track averaged 78 (72) while Expedition Everest averaged 38 minutes (predicted 35) and Primeval Whirl averaged 19 (16).

Epcot
8
9
Hollywood Studios
9
8
Animal Kingdom
7
7

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
8

Animal Kingdom dropped incredibly from the crowd level ‘7’ on Tuesday to a level ‘2’ on Wednesday, way lower than history would suggest. That means wait times averaged 12 minutes at Kilimanjaro Safaris, 13 at Primeval Whirl and 47 at Kali River Rapids.

Epcot
7
6
Hollywood Studios
8
6
Animal Kingdom
7
2

Thursday, August 11, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
7

All four parks saw crowds below what the Disney World Crowd Calendar predicted on Thursday. The biggest differences were at Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom. Toy Story Midway Mania averaged only 43 minutes while Kilimanjaro Safaris averaged 19.

Epcot
7
6
Hollywood Studios
9
5
Animal Kingdom
7
3

Friday, August 12, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
8

Friday’s crowds were as expected at Magic Kingdom thanks to average waits like 44 minutes at Jungle Cruise (predicted 41) and 62 minutes at Peter Pan’s Flight while Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom pulled the resort wide crowd level lower once again.

Epcot
7
6
Hollywood Studios
9
6
Animal Kingdom
5
3

Saturday, August 13, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
8

All four parks were at a level ‘5’ or higher on Saturday, the first time that happened since Tuesday. Magic Kingdom and Epcot led the way again with the highest average wait times. Animal Kingdom continued to be unpredictable with wait times surging back to a level ‘6’, as predicted.

Epcot
6
7
Hollywood Studios
8
5
Animal Kingdom
6
6
How Crowded Was Disney World August 14 - 20, 2016
How Crowded Was Disney World August 14 – 20, 2016

 

The second week of August also saw wait times lower than expected across the resort with no day hitting a crowd level as high as predicted by the Disney World Crowd Calendar. Once again it was Animal Kingdom that saw wild swings in wait times depending on the day that tended to pull the resort wide crowd level lower than expected.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day between August 14 and August 20, 2016:

 

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, August 14, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
8

Sunday’s wait times matched predicted levels at Magic Kingdom and Epcot while Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom came in two levels lower than expected. Guests at those two parks saw average wait times like 34 minutes at Kali River Rapids and 47 minutes at Toy Story Midway Mania.

Epcot
5
5
Hollywood Studios
8
6
Animal Kingdom
6
4

Monday, August 15, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
9

Monday’s predictions did well, missing by more than one index level only at Animal Kingdom. Magic Kingdom was very crowded with average wait times like 72 minutes at Peter Pan’s Flight and 100 minutes at Space Mountain.

Epcot
7
6
Hollywood Studios
8
8
Animal Kingdom
7
5

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
9

Tuesday’s crowd at Magic Kingdom was near the top of our scale again on Tuesday, continuing a strong trend of peak summer crowds at that park. Meanwhile, Animal Kingdom continues to suffer from extended hours without additional attractions. Wait times there are very low compared to what we have seen in years past.

Epcot
8
8
Hollywood Studios
9
9
Animal Kingdom
7
3

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
9

Another crowd level ‘9’ at Magic Kingdom on Wednesday, and another crowd level ‘3’ at Animal Kingdom. Space Mountain averaged 72 minutes while Kilimanjaro Safaris averaged 17. Meanwhile crowds were moderately crowded at the other two parks.

Epcot
6
6
Hollywood Studios
8
7
Animal Kingdom
7
3

Thursday, August 18, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
7

Thursday saw the most evenly distributed crowds of the week with all four parks at a level ‘6’ or ‘7’. Both Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios saw crowd levels two points lower than the Disney World Crowd Calendar predicted while the other two parks also saw wait times lower than expected.

Epcot
7
6
Hollywood Studios
8
6
Animal Kingdom
8
7

Friday, August 19, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
9
7

Crowds dipped a bit on Friday with Epcot and Hollywood Studios coming in three points lower than predicted. This seems to be the point in the month when we started to see crowds diminish at Walt Disney World relative to historical patterns.

Epcot
7
4
Hollywood Studios
8
5
Animal Kingdom
6
6

Saturday, August 20, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
8

Predictions did well on Saturday with the slight exception of Hollywood Studios which saw average wait times like 48 minutes at Toy Story Midway Mania. Test Track Averaged 71 minutes (predicted 70).

Epcot
6
6
Hollywood Studios
8
6
Animal Kingdom
6
7

 

How Crowded Was Disney World August 21 - 27, 2016?
How Crowded Was Disney World August 21 – 27, 2016?

In 2015, with the early Labor Day many schools were back in session by August 23 whereas this year crowds looked more like summer crowds during the same week since labor day fell later. We did see a strange spike in attendance on Saturday however with Magic Kingdom hitting a crowd level ’10’ for the first time since July 4th.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day between August 21 and August 27, 2016:

 

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, August 21, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

Sunday’s crowds were most significant at Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios although the difference between the four parks was minimal. We saw average wait times like 39 minutes at Jungle Cruise and 57 at Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster. All four parks were within one of predicted levels.

Epcot
6
5
Hollywood Studios
8
7
Animal Kingdom
7
6

Monday, August 22, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
8

Monday’s crowd levels were one level higher than the day before at Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios while the other two parks saw significant drops in wait times. It is rare to see crowd levels so different at the four parks although the Disney World Crowd Calendar did correctly predict that Epcot and Animal Kingdom would be the least crowded parks.

Epcot
5
3
Hollywood Studios
7
8
Animal Kingdom
6
3

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
8

Tuesday’s crowd at Magic Kingdom continued a month long trend of hitting crowds levels at ‘7’ or above for that park. Peter Pan’s Flight averaged 66 minutes (predicted 64). The other three parks were no slouch either, with crowd levels above the middle point of our scale.

Epcot
5
6
Hollywood Studios
7
6
Animal Kingdom
5
7

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
8

Animal Kingdom dipped back down to a level ‘2’ on Wednesday, another significant jump after a busy day. Kali River Rapids was the busiest attraction at Animal Kingdom thanks to an average wait of 37 minutes.

Epcot
4
6
Hollywood Studios
8
5
Animal Kingdom
5
2

Thursday, August 25, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

Predictions for Magic Kingdom and Epcot hit the mark on Thursday while Animal Kingdom ended up one level below expectations but one level higher than the day before. Hollywood Studios saw three of its headliners average wait times 20 minutes lower than usual.

Epcot
5
5
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
5
4

Friday, August 26, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

We saw a crowd level ‘1’ for the first time in a while on Friday, even though it was at Animal Kingdom. Perhaps this is a sign that summer crowds are making way for the back-to-school lull that we typically see in late August – or perhaps the rain kept crowds at bay.

Epcot
4
5
Hollywood Studios
8
5
Animal Kingdom
2
1

Saturday, August 27, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
10

So much for the back-to-school lull! Magic Kingdom saw a major bounce-back day on Saturday reaching the top level on our scale. Surprisingly, it was only Magic Kingdom that saw the big spike. Hollywood Studios was as crowded as predicted and Animal Kingdom was slightly less crowded than predicted.

Epcot
2
6
Hollywood Studios
4
4
Animal Kingdom
4
3

 

How Crowded Was Disney World August 28 to September 3, 2016?
How Crowded Was Disney World August 28 to September 3, 2016?

We can see that by the time August 28 arrived, crowds at Disney World had entered the slow fall season as many school boards began a new year. Although, for the second week in a row, Saturday’s crowds surged well above what we saw other days of the week. It will be interesting to see if September crowds mirror what we have seen historically or will we see the large crowds we saw last year.

But first, let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day between August 28 and September 3, 2016:

 

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, August 28, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
5

For the first time in a long time, Sunday saw no park hit a crowd level higher than a ‘5’ on our scale – a sure sign that Fall crowds have arrived. All four parks stayed within one index level of what the Disney World Crowd Calendar predicted.

Epcot
2
3
Hollywood Studios
4
3
Animal Kingdom
2
2

Monday, August 29, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
3
7

Magic Kingdom surged back up to a level ‘7’ on Monday which was surprising considering that last year on the equivalent day that park hit a crowd level ‘3’. The other three parks were near empty though, with wait times in the lowest third of what we see over the year.

Epcot
2
2
Hollywood Studios
3
3
Animal Kingdom
2
1

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
4

Tuesday’s crowd was a level ‘4’ at Magic Kingdom as predicted with average wait times like 33 minutes at Splash Mountain and 13 minutes at Pirates of the Caribbean. Meanwhile, wait times at Epcot and Animal Kingdom were nearly walk-ons all day.

Epcot
2
1
Hollywood Studios
3
3
Animal Kingdom
2
1

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
2
4

More low wait times for Epcot and Animal Kingdom on Wednesday and low to moderate waits at the other two parks. Certainly, light Fall crowds have arrived.

Epcot
1
1
Hollywood Studios
1
2
Animal Kingdom
2
1

Thursday, September 1, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
3
2

Thursday’s crowd levels represent the least crowded day we have seen at Walt Disney World in a very long time, it doesn’t get better than this for crowd averse guests. The highest average wait time was 48 minutes at Peter Pan’s Flight.

Epcot
1
1
Hollywood Studios
1
1
Animal Kingdom
2
1

Friday, September 2, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
1
1

More rock bottom crowd levels on Friday thanks to average wait times like 12 minutes at Jungle Cruise, 11 minutes at Mission Space, 18 at Star Tours and 8 minutes at Expedition Everest! That means Everest was basically a walk-on all day.

Epcot
2
1
Hollywood Studios
3
2
Animal Kingdom
2
1

Saturday, September 3, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
10

One day later we saw a completely different picture, with Magic Kingdom surging from a ‘1’ on Friday to a ’10’ on Saturday. In fact, all four parks saw a large increase in wait times from a day before.

Epcot
2
6
Hollywood Studios
4
4
Animal Kingdom
3
5

 

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

4 thoughts on “Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – August 2016

  • October 5, 2016 at 8:03 am
    Permalink

    Glad to see the calendars back!!

    Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 8:26 am
    Permalink

    Will you be posting DL as well? Eager!

    Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 3:13 pm
    Permalink

    Will your updates to crowd calendar calculations affect currently predicted crowd levels for upcoming months? Specifically end of November-early December? Thanks!

    Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 10:48 pm
    Permalink

    We were in WDW from August 22 to 26 which happened to be when the cast of black-ish was filming. The cast was in MK most of the day on Monday and we left AK for Epcot on Wednesday morning because Everest was on a delayed opening due to filming. It might not have impacted overall waits but it might explain some of the jumps.

    Reply

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