We’re more than halfway through March, so let’s take a glance at the Walt Disney World crowds so far this month:
|Park||Predicted Crowd Level||Observed Crowd Level|
|Magic Kingdom||7.8||7.8 (+0.0)|
|Hollywood Studios||7.0||7.8 (+0.8)|
|Animal Kingdom||7.1||8.1 (+1.0)|
Predictions are doing well so far in March. One of our goals in predicting Disney World crowds is to average no more than a point difference and we accomplished that in all parks. There was a fair amount of variation from day to day however, with some days higher than expected and other days lower.
Crowd Calendar Updates in April
If we were to update the calendar today, our wait time models would push Animal Kingdom numbers a point or two higher on many days in 2019. We have blogged a lot about the wait time patterns at Animal Kingdom lately, and it seems like our models are catching up to the pattern. However, since our last post about it, the crowd levels at Animal Kingdom have stabilized, and the patterns have smoothed out to something resembling historical shapes. We will be watching Animal Kingdom closely for the rest of March before deciding how to update predictions at that park.
Disney’s Hollywood Studios may see some dates in April and June go up a point or two when we update in April. Magic Kingdom would see some minor tweaks, and Epcot would not really change at all. We are hearing that a lot of guests are changing (or considering changing) their travel dates in response to the opening dates of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Presumably this means a bump in crowd level between now and the end of August, but there isn’t enough evidence to support that just yet. If we see Disney expand park hours, that would be an indication that bookings are up.
2020 and Beyond
In April we may update forecasts for 2020 as well although it is a little early to know what crowds will look like. A lot depends on how the summer goes. Within three months we will have our first look at Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge crowds (at Disneyland). Once we hear the reviews and observe the flow of crowds we will know a lot more about what 2020 might look like.
Got any questions for the number gurus? Theories about the odd spikes at Animal Kingdom? Let us know in the comments.