Disney World Crowd Calendar Review for July 2019

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We are halfway through July, so it is time for our mid-month Crowd Calendar review. Here’s how the calendar did since our last review in mid-June.

Park Predicted Crowd Level Observed Crowd Level
Magic Kingdom 6.0 6.3 (0.3)
Epcot 5.2 4.2 (-1.0)
Hollywood Studios 5.3 5.0 (-0.3)
Animal Kingdom 5.3 6.7 (1.4)

The moderate summer crowds we predicted are holding up.  Disney is offering discounts to raise attendance, but it does not seem to be affecting crowds. With nothing new and the heat of summer in full form, attendance is down.

Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge

Disney has finally released the opening date for the  Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance attraction. On December 5, 2019, the most immersive and advanced attraction ever imagined in a Disney Park will open.

The Star Wars land will open on August 29, with only one ride,  Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run. It will be interesting to observe how many people wait until after December 5 to visit the land. If Disneyland is any sign, many people are waiting until the land is complete with both rides. The typical lull in crowds in early December will be very short this year. Locals will hit the parks between December 5 and 18 before the holiday blockout dates to see the new land and holiday decorations across the resort.

Fall Discounts

The typical fall discounts had not shown up when we finished this article last night, but they started rolling in this morning including the ever-popular free dining. With Disney starting to offer deals for the fall, this is a sign of lower than expected hotel reservations. Disneyland has learned that Galaxy’s Edge with one attraction is not enough to draw in the crowds. Walt Disney World is not going to want to repeat the pattern in Florida.

August

Most of the month will continue with moderate summer crowds. At the end of the month once Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, the crowds will increase.

Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will have Passholder previews in August. Disney has not announced specific dates for the previews, but it will likely be the two weeks before the land opens. The longer Disney waits to announce details of the Annual Passholder previews the less impact it will have on crowds. When Disney had Annual Passholder previews for Pandora – The World of Avatar crowd levels increased 2-3 points at the Animal Kingdom.

September

September historically has the lowest crowds of the year. Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will increase the number of guests going to Walt Disney World, but will still have relatively low crowds compared to other times of year. Even with low crowds overall, Galaxy’s Edge will be crowded.

October and November

Crowds will be moderate as many schools have fall breaks in October. The closer it gets to December 5, the fewer people will be making a special trip to visit Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Thanksgiving week will have high crowds, however.

December

December 1-4 will have low crowds. December 5-18 will have locals hitting the parks to see the holiday decorations and the complete Star Wars land. December has the highest crowd levels of the year. December 20 will be the last day of school for most students in the U.S. The last 10 days of 2019 will see the highest crowd of 2019.

2020

Low crowds that typically happen in January and February are not going to be seen in 2020. Moderate temperatures, events, and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will keep people going to Walt Disney World.

Have questions for our stats gurus? Let us know in the comments.

Steve Bloom

By helping TouringPlans.com continue to reach the most accurate crowd level predictions, Steve finally found a way to meld his training in statistical analysis with a lifelong passion for Disney. He first visited the Magic Kingdom in 1972, just a few months after it opened. Now he enjoys frequent trips with his two kids. At age four his son insisted on wearing cowboy boots to reach the height requirement for Test Track, and his daughter believes that a smoked turkey leg and Dole Whip make a perfectly balanced meal. Even though she doesn't quite get it, Steve's wife is supportive of his Disney activities.

13 thoughts on “Disney World Crowd Calendar Review for July 2019

  • July 16, 2019 at 10:18 am
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    If December 1-4 is expected to have low crowds, why are those dates excluded from the discounts?

    Reply
    • July 16, 2019 at 10:38 am
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      I do find it interesting that the first week of December does not have free dining. There is a room only discount that covers all dates up to December 24. It is more interesting that there are discounts after the Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance attraction opens.

      Reply
  • July 16, 2019 at 12:01 pm
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    With Galaxy’s Edge opening the last week of August, what do you think the impact of crowds will be on the other 3 parks? I see the calendar has lots of 2s and 3s, so I’m wondering what I could expect then.

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    • July 16, 2019 at 12:19 pm
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      September is still going to have lower crowds than at any time in the next twelve months. Galaxy’s Edge and its one attraction will increase the crowd slightly at other parks. Taking advantage of the Extra, Extra Magic Hours and a good Touring strategy you will not notice the increase in attendance.

      Reply
  • July 16, 2019 at 1:14 pm
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    I understand that February will not have low crowds in 2020, but what is causing the jump to 10s in late February (the week after Princess)?

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    • July 19, 2019 at 9:07 pm
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      Many schools in the Northeast have the week of Presidents Day off. The warmth of Florida is an attractive destination.

      Reply
  • July 16, 2019 at 4:21 pm
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    With the opening of Rise of the Resistance in December, do you think that will affect the room discounts that are usually available in February?

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    • July 19, 2019 at 8:18 pm
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      I would expect Disney to delay releasing discounts for 2020. Just like this fall, if bookings are lite, then they will release discounts.

      Reply
  • July 16, 2019 at 4:56 pm
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    Hope you’re right on Dec. 1-4, as I’ll be there that week. Would love some low crowds and then everyone rushing Hollywood on the 5th, while I’m at MK, Christmas partying it up! 🙂

    Reply
  • July 16, 2019 at 5:11 pm
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    This is looking good for a mid november trip crowds wise. Now if only they would extend the extra, extra magic hours through the end of 2019….

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    • July 19, 2019 at 8:31 pm
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      I’m afraid the Disney is going to regret the 6am and 7am openings in September. Then they will overcorrect and not have the Extra, Extra Magic Hours in December when they will need them. I would bet early November will not have extra early openings. They might bring back the Morning Magic paid events.

      Reply
  • July 19, 2019 at 7:50 pm
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    When looking at Disney onsite resort options, there were only 9 resorts available the dates I choose the 1st week of December and 19 available the week before Thanksgiving. That makes it seem like the 1st week of December will be a lot busier but it’s my girls birthday week. Will the week before Thanksgiving be a lot less crowded than the 1st week of December?

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    • July 20, 2019 at 5:17 pm
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      The week before Thanksgiving will be less crowded than the first week of December. I don’t think it will be “a lot” busier in December. With Rise of the Resistance opening on December 5, people will be making a special trip to get into Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge. Those extra guests will be focusing on Hollywood Studios.

      Using a Touringplan will offset the difference in attendance. Take a look at my blog post about crowd level and touring: https://touringplans.com/blog/2019/07/09/crowd-levels-and-touring/

      I cannot explain Disney’s hotel availability. Checking the availability of the same dates at different times will show different results. It seems some inventory is being withheld for conventions or other reason. Disney keeps a high occupancy rate all year round. Offsite hotels feel the impact of crowd variation more than Disney Hotels.

      Reply

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