Disneyland Crowd Calendar Update for February 2020

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Disneyland Crowd Levels are down in 2020 so far, so it is time for a Disneyland Crowd Calendar update. Half of the days since January 1, 2020, saw a crowd level less than ‘3’ on our scale. That goes for Disneyland Park and Disney California Adventure.  Compare that to last year when California Adventure had seven days reach a crowd level ’10’ during the same period. Between January 1 and February 14, 2019, the average crowd level between the two parks was above 5; this year it was below 3.2.

This update reflects that trend with most changes being reductions in crowd level. However, as with any update, there are some days that will increase as well. Overall, the changes are not significant. Most days increase or decrease by a single point. Here is a closer look at what to expect over the next few months.

Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge

The recent dips in crowd size is surprising given that Rise of the Resistance has only been open for a month. The new land and new ride are drawing large crowds but they’re not heading to other areas of the resort after experiencing Batuu. We normally observe a 6-12% bump in wait times across the park when a new headliner opens, but it looks like Disneyland will actually show a drop of 5-10% when the wave is over. Last Sunday both parks were a crowd level ‘2’ for example, when normally we would expect to see a ‘5’ or ‘6’. Granted, some of that was caused by light rain across the park. Still, this is new territory for our models. We hear that Smuggler’s Run will be getting FASTPASS soon. We will keep an eye on that to see how it may affect wait times.

February

As we head into Presidents’ Day, we expect crowds to pick up across both Disneyland Parks. This is usually the busiest week in February. Last year California Adventure hit a crowd level ’10’ many times; this year the crowd calendar predicts it will only hit that peak twice. Disneyland will be very crowded as well although not to the maximum level on our scale. Prepare yourself for long lines and crowded walkways if you plan to visit the parks next week. We predict the Presidents’ Day rush will end on Friday or Saturday. After that, the remainder of February looks pretty good for crowd levels with a few days even predicted to be at a crowd level ‘1’ or ‘2’.

March

Most updates in March are reductions in crowd level by a point or two in the second half of the month. The calendar predicts that the first week of March will be the best for light crowds while March 9 onward looks really busy. Only one day changes as a result of this update between March 9 and March 19, and it only changes by a single point.

April

The Disneyland Crowd Calendar tracks the school schedules for the top 100 districts in America. The busiest Spring Break crowds in April will arrive at the resort between April 14 and 21, the week following Easter weekend. This update will see the days after Spring Break go down a point or two for dates until the end of the month. April 27 is the only exception where we see the crowd levels stay flat.

May

No crowd levels in May change by more than a point as a result of this update. May is expected to be busy for most of the month. There are some days at the end of month when the crowds dip below a level ‘5’. Grad nights at California Adventure are scattered throughout May, with the first one taking place on May 8.

June

Crowd level estimates for June look pretty stable as well with no major changes to report. June is a good month for avoiding crowds. If you check the Disneyland Crowd Calendar you can find several 3-4 day stretches where the crowd level stays below 5. That makes for comfortable touring around the resort. Grad nights at California Adventure continue throughout June.

Summer and Beyond

We are predicting a pretty typical summer at Disneyland Resort in terms of crowds with the busiest days around July 4th, which falls on a Saturday this year. August looks pretty busy for the first half of the month and then dies down as the kids begin to head back to school on August 18. July and August will see very few crowd levels change by more than a point as a result of this update. However, as we head into the fall we do see some drops in crowd level. In 2019 we overestimated some dates in October and November and our models have detected that in this update.

Do you have Disneyland crowd calendar questions for the stats team? Let us know in the comments.

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

5 thoughts on “Disneyland Crowd Calendar Update for February 2020

  • February 15, 2020 at 4:05 pm
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    Do you predict that the parks will be busier during the Star Wars Convention being held the last week of August at the Anaheim Convention Center?

    Reply
  • February 16, 2020 at 12:14 am
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    How do you think it will be in Sept? I playing my trip than. But need to see when haunted mansion will be down fow the switch to nightmare before Christmas

    Reply
  • February 16, 2020 at 1:45 pm
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    How about in october? Planning a trip for then

    Reply
  • February 16, 2020 at 8:06 pm
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    With prices going up I really don’t see how Disney wants us to wait in line for hours and are only able to do three rides in one day. They make about $1,000 in a family of 4 with snacks in bags. Over the top prices for food.

    Reply
  • March 7, 2020 at 9:16 pm
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    Are the late June 2020 dates being unfairly influenced by the crowd level 1s observed last year in the same time period? Are the annual pass blackouts for that time period accurate based on current data, or are they also reflecting 2019’s anomaly?

    Reply

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