This Week in Walt Disney World Weather — February 16, 2020

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A week without anything too thrilling is on the way, so you’ll have to supply your own thrills. And when you see these temperatures, you might be thinking that the Summit Plummet is the way to go.

After a very warm week and a bit of rain on Valentine’s Day, the above-average temperatures are in no hurry to move on. And if it seems a bit dry, we’re actually right on target for February at the moment in terms of rainfall. The native grass is going to be brown this time of year unless sprinklers are helping it out, and the cypress trees are going to look drab for another month or so. There will be smoke in the air from time to time as prescribed fires and construction burn-piles in the area are lit. In fact, last week the south side of property had falling ash for several hours thanks to a large land-clearing operation for the new village coming to Celebration.

a smoky February sunset at the Walt Disney World Dolphin
Smoke from a nearby construction burn lends a little extra color to sunset at the Walt Disney World Dolphin last week.

Our weather Monday through Wednesday will be warm, much like last week, thanks to a ridge of high pressure that takes over Florida’s weather. A ridge will build north from the Caribbean into south Florida, bringing warm and humid air from the south, before a short-wave trough approaches from the northwest ahead of a cold front on Thursday.

With temperatures for the first half of the week well above normal, and Caribbean winds in control, there will be a chance of sea breeze showers popping up each afternoon when the moist ocean air hits the sun-warmed land. These will be pretty isolated and aren’t expected to bring any thunder, so you might find a quick sprinkle or shower rolling through without any warning, but don’t expect a wash-out.

On Thursday night, our high pressure ridge will sag south, weakened by an approaching small trough of low pressure, with a larger trough trailing by about twenty-four hours in its wake.

The main stories for Thursday-Saturday weather will probably be blustery winds on Thursday through Friday, some decent cooling temperatures beginning late Thursday night into the weekend, and some rain—although not much, according to current models.

This Week’s Weather at Walt Disney World

Sunday continues with passing clouds and sunshine, and a slight chance of an afternoon rain shower. You might even hear a rumble of thunder later this evening as a wave of low pressure crosses the northern Florida peninsula, and there could be a moderate to heavy burst of rain late tonight as the low pressure passes by.

Otherwise, today’s high of 83 will be supplemented by a warm south-southeast wind of about five to ten miles per hour. After the rain threat passes, clouds will remain, keeping things mild overnight despite the wind’s changing to northeast. A low of around 66 degrees means you probably won’t even need to take a jacket with you.

On Monday, our high pressure ridge begins its takeover from the southern peninsula. There will be a slight chance of an afternoon rain shower, but otherwise Presidents’ Day is war, sunny, and calm, with a high around 82 degrees. Overnight, nothing changes but the temperature, which will get down to about 64 degrees.

Tuesday is mostly sunny, with a high around 85 degrees. The calm wind will pick up in the afternoon and become southeast around five to ten miles per hour. This will bring in some marine clouds and the evening will become mostly cloudy, with an overnight low around 64 degrees.

Not much changes for Wednesday, except for a slight chance of a rain shower. The sunny day gets up to 84 degrees before a gentle south-southwest wind ushers in some evening clouds, and the low continues to dip to a mild 64 degrees.

Falling asleep? Wake up! Thursday actually has a slightly different forecast. Our short-wave trough is on the way and the pressure gradient is tightening between the low pressure center and the high pressure center—that means big winds. The day will become mostly cloudy ahead of the trough, with a high of 78 and a 20% chance of showers! Now that’s excitement for you. The wind will pick up in the evening and become a big gusty, up to 20 miles per hour, as the temperature gets down into the 50s. You’ll definitely feel a chill in the air late Thursday.

Friday will be another blustery day, with a high of around 65 degrees after gradual clearing from the leftover cloud cover. The wind will be gusty from the north-northeast, and that will stick around late, making Friday night’s low of 53 feel pretty brisk.

On Saturday, we expect dry air and subsidence behind the front to leave behind a pretty, cool day, with a high near 71 degrees and a steady northeast breeze.

So if you’re here for the week, make your pool and water park plans for early in the week, and be ready for a little bit of a bite to the wind by Thursday night. While it doesn’t look like there will be torrential rainfall with these late-week disturbances, there might be a 40-50% chance of rain. Either way, blustery winds and a damp low in the 50s could make Thursday night and Friday feel pretty raw.

Normal highs for the second half of February trend into the mid-70s, so this week will be above normal by about ten degrees nearly every day. The record highs for these dates are all in the 88-90 degree range, so we might run a few degrees shy of records… or not. Last week Orlando did tie a record high of 88 degrees despite a forecast high of 85. At least we’re far away from the record lows, which are all in the 20s and 30s — unthinkable!

If you love warm, breezy weather, this should be a (mostly) lovely week for you.

Natalie Reinert

One of those Florida locals who can usually tell you if it's going to rain by the sun angle and the feel of the air, I'm an avid weather fan and a certified weather spotter for the National Weather Service's SkyWarn program. I tweet about Central Florida weather at @WeatheratWDW. As I work for Walt Disney World, please note all of my views are my own, and do not represent the views of The Walt Disney Company. All information shared in my posts comes from publicly available sources.

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