Crowd Calendar Review for June 2019

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It is mid-month and time to look back on the performance of the Walt Disney Crowd Calendar.  Over the past 31 days, our resort-wide crowd level prediction was within 1 point 23 days. In general, the actual crowd levels have been coming slightly lower than our predictions. The Sunday before Memorial Day we predicted a 10, but the observed was only a 7.

Individual parks follow the same trend as the resort, overall:

Park Predicted Crowd Level Observed Crowd Level
Magic Kingdom 5.7 5.4 (-0.3)
Epcot 6.0 4.9 (-1.1)
Hollywood Studios 6.2 5.0 (-1.2)
Animal Kingdom 5.2 5.5  (0.3)

Besides early July and the Independence Day crowds, we expect the rest of the summer to see low-moderate crowds. Disney is offering hotel and ticket deals to entice people to visit. It looks like many people are holding off their Walt Disney World trips until after Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens on August 29, 2019.

Crowd Calendar Update in July

Gerelyn has been working hard collecting 2019-2020 school calendars for 125 different school districts. The new school calendar data will be included in the next crowd calendar update.

There are no big surprises in the school schedules. Starting August 1, schools are getting back in session. By Labor Day, almost all schools are back. Fall break is spread out, from September to November, with Columbus Day as its peak. Easter is a week earlier in 2020, and that will compress spring break travel.

Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge Effect

We are watching the crowds at Disneyland since Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge has opened in California. To control the initial crowds, through June 23 Disneyland is only allowing guests with a reservation to enter the new land. The reservation system is managing the crowds within the new land, but it also seems to be discouraging people from visiting the resort in general. Walt Disney World is a different beast. Most Disneyland guests drive in for the day, whereas Walt Disney World has people planning months in advance. We are still waiting to learn what Walt Disney World will do to manage its Star Wars crowds in August.

Hagrid’s Motorbike Adventure Breaks Wait Time Record

The new Hagrid’s Magical Creatures Motorbike Adventure ride at Universal’s Islands of Adventure saw posted wait times of 600 minutes on the morning of June 13. That breaks the record of 450 minutes previously held by Universal Studios’ Escape From Gringotts on July 8, 2014. We predicted very high wait times for Hagrid’s Motorbike Adventure but not quite that high. This weekend we have observed several wait times of 480 minutes which would have broken the previous record as well. Harry Potter attractions still seem to bring out fans willing to spend all day in the Florida sun to experience something new from their favorite franchise. The highest wait time we ever observed at Disneyland Resort was 400 minutes for California Screamin’ on New Year’s Eve 2012. At Disney World the record is held by Avatar Flight of Passage at 390 minutes.

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Steve Bloom

By helping continue to reach the most accurate crowd level predictions, Steve finally found a way to meld his training in statistical analysis with a lifelong passion for Disney. He first visited the Magic Kingdom in 1972, just a few months after it opened. Now he enjoys frequent trips with his two kids. At age four his son insisted on wearing cowboy boots to reach the height requirement for Test Track, and his daughter believes that a smoked turkey leg and Dole Whip make a perfectly balanced meal. Even though she doesn't quite get it, Steve's wife is supportive of his Disney activities.

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