We are halfway through July, so it is time for our mid-month Crowd Calendar review. Here’s how the calendar did since our last review in mid-June.
|Park||Predicted Crowd Level||Observed Crowd Level|
|Magic Kingdom||6.0||6.3 (0.3)|
|Hollywood Studios||5.3||5.0 (-0.3)|
|Animal Kingdom||5.3||6.7 (1.4)|
The moderate summer crowds we predicted are holding up. Disney is offering discounts to raise attendance, but it does not seem to be affecting crowds. With nothing new and the heat of summer in full form, attendance is down.
Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge
Disney has finally released the opening date for the Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance attraction. On December 5, 2019, the most immersive and advanced attraction ever imagined in a Disney Park will open.
The Star Wars land will open on August 29, with only one ride, Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run. It will be interesting to observe how many people wait until after December 5 to visit the land. If Disneyland is any sign, many people are waiting until the land is complete with both rides. The typical lull in crowds in early December will be very short this year. Locals will hit the parks between December 5 and 18 before the holiday blockout dates to see the new land and holiday decorations across the resort.
The typical fall discounts had not shown up when we finished this article last night, but they started rolling in this morning including the ever-popular free dining. With Disney starting to offer deals for the fall, this is a sign of lower than expected hotel reservations. Disneyland has learned that Galaxy’s Edge with one attraction is not enough to draw in the crowds. Walt Disney World is not going to want to repeat the pattern in Florida.
Most of the month will continue with moderate summer crowds. At the end of the month once Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, the crowds will increase.
Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will have Passholder previews in August. Disney has not announced specific dates for the previews, but it will likely be the two weeks before the land opens. The longer Disney waits to announce details of the Annual Passholder previews the less impact it will have on crowds. When Disney had Annual Passholder previews for Pandora – The World of Avatar crowd levels increased 2-3 points at the Animal Kingdom.
September historically has the lowest crowds of the year. Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will increase the number of guests going to Walt Disney World, but will still have relatively low crowds compared to other times of year. Even with low crowds overall, Galaxy’s Edge will be crowded.
October and November
Crowds will be moderate as many schools have fall breaks in October. The closer it gets to December 5, the fewer people will be making a special trip to visit Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Thanksgiving week will have high crowds, however.
December 1-4 will have low crowds. December 5-18 will have locals hitting the parks to see the holiday decorations and the complete Star Wars land. December has the highest crowd levels of the year. December 20 will be the last day of school for most students in the U.S. The last 10 days of 2019 will see the highest crowd of 2019.
Low crowds that typically happen in January and February are not going to be seen in 2020. Moderate temperatures, events, and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will keep people going to Walt Disney World.
Have questions for our stats gurus? Let us know in the comments.