We are halfway through May, so it is time for our mid-month Crowd Calendar review. Here’s how the calendar did since our last review in mid-April
|Park||Predicted Crowd Level||Observed Crowd Level|
|Magic Kingdom||5.6||4.8 (-0.8)|
|Hollywood Studios||5.6||5.2 (-0.4)|
|Animal Kingdom||6.2||5.7 (-0.5)|
For the second month in a row, crowd levels are trending downward. On average, the Crowd Calendar overpredicted every park in the last 30 days. That is a good sign for guests heading to Disney World in the next few months. I believe it is fair to say that crowds will be lighter than usual between now and mid-August. Now, that does not mean that the parks will be empty–just lighter than usual for this time of year. We still strongly recommend using a touring plan. Notice that the observed crowd levels in the last 30 days were between 4.8 and 5.7 at the four parks, right around the middle point of our scale. Average crowds can still mean an 80-minute wait for Soarin’ and 120-minute wait for Flight of Passage.
May continues to be a a good time to visit the parks. The extreme low crowds of September that we used to see each year are becoming closer to a “normal” low, which means that May is becoming a really good option. Of course with Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge opening this August we may see the busiest September yet.
Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge
Questions about crowds at Galaxy’s Edge are rolling in steadily. Here are the key points to know:
- Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge will be VERY crowded.
- Hollywood Studios will see a significant bump in wait times at its other attractions, although it will still be possible to experience them with minimal wait if you use an optimized touring plan.
- REMINDER: The Disney World Crowd Calendar reflects the average wait time between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. at key attractions. Because it is so new, Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge attractions are not included in the list of key attractions. They will likely be added in winter 2021 after we observe at least 12 months of wait times.
- Hollywood Studios will likely see another surge in wait times when Rise of the Resistance opens (currently, we have no official date for the opening).
Updates In June
The next update to the Crowd Calendar will be in early June. It will include some adjustments related to the following:
- Extra, Extra Magic Hours hours which were recently announced to deal with the opening of Galaxy’s Edge.
- School Calendars for the 2019-2020 school year. Currently we have collected school calendar data for 90% of the top 100 school districts. By June, that should reach 100% and the calendar will reflect the latest school data.
- If our over predicting trend continues for another two weeks our next update might adjust predictions downward slightly for the rest of Spring and into Summer.
Have any questions for the stats gurus? Ask away in the comments!