Disneyland Crowd Calendar Report – April 10 to 16, 2016

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Disneyland Crowd Calendar Report
How Crowded Was Disneyland Resort Last Week?

Last week was two weeks after Easter and the first week back to school for most of the major school districts in the Western U.S. Despite it being one of the least crowded weeks historically, Disneyland Park was shockingly packed with every day reaching a crowd level ‘8’ or higher. This continues a string of surprising crowds at Disneyland Resort in 2016. What is most interesting is that the crowds were focussed almost exclusively at Disneyland Park while Disney California Adventure stayed within a point or two of what the Disneyland Crowd Calendar predicted.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the TouringPlans.com Disneyland Crowd Calendar Report:

Disneyland Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, April 10, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Disneyland Park
8
8

Sunday was the only day last week when crowds at the Disneyland Resort were lighter than what the Disneyland Crowd Calendar predicted. At Disney California Adventure we saw average wait times like 39 minutes at Toy Story Midway Mania and 73 minutes at Radiator Springs Racers while at Disneyland Park Indiana Jones Adventure averaged 39 and Splash Mountain averaged 34. Let’s track how those averages fluctuated throughout the week.

Disney California Adventure
9
6

Monday, April 11, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Disneyland Park
4
8

This first Monday after spring break is typically one of the quietest days at Disneyland Park but last week, Monday was very busy. We saw average wait times like 41 minutes at Matterhorn Bobsleds and 58 minutes at Space Mountain. Toy Story Midway Mania averaged 39 (predicted 38), Radiator Springs Racers 59 (57), Indiana Jones Adventure 44 (28) and Splash Mountain 46 (26).

Disney California Adventure
4
5

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Disneyland Park
2
9

Disneyland Park was actually busier on Tuesday compared to what we saw on Monday. On the same day last year Disneyland Park was a level ‘3’ on our scale with average waits like 33 minutes at Indiana Jones Adventure and Splash Mountain. This year, those attractions averaged 40 and 48 minutes respectively while attractions like Astro Orbitor (28 minutes) and Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters (23) both hit level ’10’s on their attraction level scales.

Disney California Adventure
3
4

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Disneyland Park
2
8

Both Disneyland parks saw wait times much higher than history would suggest for a Wednesday in the middle of April. Disney labelled the single-day ticket season as “Value” last week which suggest that the enormous crowds surprised them as well. We simply can’t find any information that would suggest Disneyland would see such large crowds midweek this year. Indiana Jones Adventure was 32 minutes (predicted 21), Splash Mountain 33 (20) while Toy Story Midway Mania averaged 40 (39) and Radiator Springs Racers 64 (54).

Disney California Adventure
2
5

Thursday, April 14, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Disneyland Park
3
8

More of the same on Thursday. Much longer waits at Disneyland Park and moderate crowds at Disney California Adventure. Indiana Jones Adventure hit 39 minutes (24), Splash Mountain 38 (23), Toy Story Midway Mania 36 (34) and Radiator Springs Racers 62 (52).

Disney California Adventure
2
4

Friday, April 15, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Disneyland Park
7
9

Friday’s crowds were busy as well but that is much less of a surprise. The Disneyland Crowd Calendar expects Fridays to be a little busier than what we see during the week. Indiana Jones Adventure averaged 46 minutes (27), Splash Mountain 42 (37), Toy Story Midway Mania 36 (40) and Radiator Springs Racers 64 (69).

Disney California Adventure
7
6

Saturday, April 16, 2016

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Disneyland Park
8
10

Saturday was the busiest day of a very busy week at Disneyland Park. Since we started tracking crowds at Disneyland in 2006 we have not seen a park reach a level ’10’ in April unless it was during Spring Break or Easter. 2016 continues to be a year of ‘firsts’. Indiana Jones averaged 54 (predicted 43), Splash Mountain closed the week with its highest average wait of 72 minutes (predicted 36), Toy Story Midway Mania was 43 (41) and Radiator Springs Racers 71 (78).

Disney California Adventure
7
7
What to Expect This Week
April 17 to 23, 2016

The second half of April is typically a great week to visit the Disneyland Resort but it may not be this year. Early indications of the crowd this week show Disneyland Park much more crowded than normal once again. Make sure to re-optimize your Disneyland touring plan while in the park to take advantage of the most up-to-the-minute wait time forecasts.

To see Disneyland Resort Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

3 thoughts on “Disneyland Crowd Calendar Report – April 10 to 16, 2016

  • April 21, 2016 at 1:47 pm
    Permalink

    We were at the parks Saturday, 4/9 through Monday, 4/11 and really feel like Monday, 4/11 was a 10 in terms of sheer numbers of people in the park. It was without question much more packed on Monday than on Saturday. Saturday was busy but we could still move around. On Monday, it was crowded from the 9 am park opening. Fantasyland was as busy at 9 am as it had been on Saturday afternoon. By 11, it was a wall-to-wall crowd of people in Fantasyland, Tomorrowland, and all the way from the hub through Frontierland and New Orleans Square to the Haunted Mansion. Adventureland wasn’t any better. Things got slightly better after 5 pm, but largely remained extremely crowded in everyplace except Bear Country. To be fair, this wasn’t helped by the fact that DL closed the castle entrance by 6 pm and there was only one way through the hub, all while people were already reserving spots for the parade. Leaving Fantasyland meant everyone had to go past Alice or through the Wishing Well path and empty out into the hub, and even then a large portion of the castle front was blocked off so everyone had to move into the street through the hub area to go to the park’s east side. And on top of that, there were tons of ride malfunctions, and neither the Touring Plans app nor the Disneyland app reflected accurate wait times, more often than not. The DL app showed the wait at Alice was only 15 minutes for most of the morning, but the reality is that for most of the morning, the line extended all the way to the Mad Hatter every time we were there.. The only time the line was short was when the ride was closed briefly (again) because it wasn’t working–and that happened multiple times during the three days we were at DLR. In fact, tons of rides, including Haunted Mansion, Alice, Matterhorn, Pirates, Casey Jr, Pinocchio, Peter Pan, and the King Arthur Carousel all closed for short periods for problems and/or stopped while in operation. (I didn’t even know the Carousel could shut down, but when my husband and oldest got in line for what was supposed to be a 10-minute wait, they ended up in line for 25 minutes, which included the point at which the carousel shut down and they had to reboot it.) Peter Pan was closed at park opening for the same reason. Casey Jr stopped while we were on it, and eventually ended up closed for most of the day. When we got in line for Pinocchio, the ride had just gone down and they said it would be about 15 minutes before it started up again. Etc. But much of this wasn’t reflected in wait times on either app, which I think led to an underestimation of actual crowds on Monday, 4/11–and also made using the “optimize” function an exercise in frustration because the app was convinced that there was only a 5-minute wait at attractions that were currently closed, and that wait times at other locations were about a third as long as they actually were. On Saturday, in contrast, the rain meant that a few rides closed (like Alice and the Gadget Go Coaster), and others closed for no apparent reason (i.e., Mickey’s House in Toontown about 15 minutes after Toontown opened; we were in line and they closed the door to go in his house for at least 10 minutes), but the lines were shorter overall, the wait times on both apps were generally more accurate, and it was easier to move around the park to get to a different ride if one was closed. Monday was much more difficult in all regards, and the comments I’ve seen on the DIS boards from others who were in the park on 4/11 reflect those same experiences. As a result, I would love for Touring Plans to reconsider the crowd calendar estimate for Monday, 4/11 to reflect a much more crowded park than Saturday and Sunday had been.

    Reply
  • April 21, 2016 at 8:07 pm
    Permalink

    Have all the StarWars related closure been taken into consideration for the increased wait times in the park? With so many attractions closed, I would think that the other attraction lines would get longer even if the same number of people in the park as in previous years.

    Reply
  • April 27, 2016 at 9:53 am
    Permalink

    You guys need to reevaluate your predictions. Yesterday the crowd calendar predicted a 3 at Disneyland and the actual crowd level was a 9. I would say that is more than a little off. This is of little value to anyone subscribing.

    Reply

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