Yo-yo temperatures and a very dry weather pattern have descended upon Walt Disney World over the past few weeks. If you’ve been here lately, you’ve probably spent some extra time pondering the contents of your suitcase and wondering what on earth to wear for a day and night out in the parks. With daytime highs in the 60s to high 70s, and evening lows quickly sinking into the 50s (or lower!), you’re not alone. No one can figure out how to dress this time of year.
Florida is going to make it a little easier for you over the coming week. While nothing too life-changing is expected for the second week of December, there are some new dips and even some rain chances in the forecast mix.
Winter So Far: Up and Down Temps, Dry Days
November 2019 closed out with below-normal temperatures after a warm start, and below-normal rainfall for the entire month. The forecasters over at the Melbourne branch of the National Weather Service actually used the phrase “reminiscent of weather downwind of the Great Lakes” to describe that awfully cold and wet weekend of the 16th and 17th. Feels like a particularly personal recollection which I have no desire to test out… that weekend was freezing.
But winter temperatures in Florida typically rebound back to normal numbers fairly quickly after a strong cold front. (That cold weekend was actually caused by an extratropical low forming off the Carolina coast, not a cold front.) We had the pleasure of experiencing both a record warm low (71 degrees) and a record cool high (57 degrees) just ten days apart. Now that’s a Floridian weather pattern.
Rainfall for November was quite low, even for the dry season. Orlando received just an inch and a sixteenth, an inch below the normal. With just a few cold fronts sparking showers and no coastal rain events making their way inland, we are looking at brown grass everywhere sprinklers aren’t running full-blast.
That looks like it might change this week, however! A lot of big continental forces are in play and the weather dynamics are pretty interesting…
This Week’s Weather at Walt Disney World
Sunday starts out with a change. A ridge building over the southeast will shift our steady northeast winds to an onshore flow out of the east. If you’ve spent any time here with me this year, you know an onshore flow means humidity and a chance of showers. An inverted trough moving towards the east coast of Florida will help stir up the rain chances beginning Sunday. Since it’s approaching from the southeast, don’t expect cool air to join the rain chances. Temperatures will be a solid five degrees above normal, with a forecast high of 78 degrees.
A fairly mild evening and overnight, with a low around 60 degrees, gives way to a sunny 80-degree Monday. A very large high pressure ridge will take over the east coast of the U.S. (a “monster ridge” according to our forecasters). The resulting winds out of the southwest will bring in a lot of relatively dry air that’s been hanging out over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There’s just enough moisture in there to stir up some showers, but chances are they’ll stay out to sea and we’ll just have a bright, warm day.
Tuesday the south/southwest wind continues to bring us warm Caribbean air. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s. The moisture levels might bump up enough to bring a passing shower. The evening should be lovely and warm, with an overnight low of just 65 degrees.
On Wednesday, the next cold front appears. The front will stall out somewhere over the peninsula, probably south Florida, and then by Friday, models expect it to lift back north along with a low developing in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario plays out, we’ll be looking at scattered rain chances Wednesday through Friday — possibly even thunderstorms on Friday. Clouds might roll in and stick around for a few days, too.
Through it all, the temperatures will stay warm to mild. Expect highs in the mid 70s Wednesday through Friday, with lows close to 60 degrees.
So all in all, Monday and Tuesday are looking like our picture-perfect blue-sky days. But even if the clouds and showers do shadow the second half of the week, the mild days should do a lot to make up for the lack of sunshine. It’s a great week to just pack some shorts and a light hoodie for cool evenings out or a showery afternoon. Looks like you can leave the coat at home this week!
The end of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Well, there were times when we thought it would never end. But the last scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook went out on November 30, and will resume on June 1, 2020. Unless, of course, something extratropical pops up…