Off and on rain, sunny in-between: it’s been a sultry return to business at Walt Disney World. So far this weekend, some drying factors have stepped in to drop our rain chances, and while we got caught in some heavy storms on Saturday, Sunday so far hasn’t been so wet. Instead, the Atlantic beaches and the areas just to our south, including the Treasure Coast (home to Disney’s Vero Beach Resort) are getting most of the rain at the moment.
What’s causing this extra dry air? Saturday’s rain was amplified by an inverted trough, and we’re caught in a dry patch as it departs the area. The flow for the rest of the week will be influenced by a high pressure ridge north of Florida, which will bring a fresh east southeast breeze, but a drier atmosphere. For our corner of Central Florida, days are going to be hot and afternoon storms are going to be scattered. The highest rain chances each day will stay just to our south, with afternoon storms pushing through the area east to west.
One benefit of east-to-west storms is that we can get a decent amount of shade from leftover clouds in the evening. In Florida, in July, you really take what you can get.
Highs will be in the mid 90s all week, with nighttime lows a little above average as well. And even though the upper levels of the atmosphere might be a bit starved for moisture, humidity at the surface will continue to ramp up heat index levels.
Plan for pool time this week to break up your theme park days.
This week’s weather at Walt Disney World
For the rest of Sunday, hot and fairly dry will sum things up. There is a slight chance of another shower or thunderstorm, then a low of 75 with a breeze from the east-southeast.
On Monday, the slight chance of morning showers gives way to a 30% shot at afternoon storms, with a high of 95 degrees. The heat index in the afternoon will be around 101. We’ll keep that east-southeast breeze, and it could be a bit gusty, although it will die down overnight. The low will be a sultry 78 degrees.
Tuesday the rain chances creep up, with a 50% chance of afternoon storms. Still quite hot, though, with a forecast high of 94 and mostly sunny skies. Tuesday night stays warm and humid, with a low of 77.
Wednesday through Saturday, you can generally look for a high of 93 and a 50% chance of thunderstorms each afternoon. Some days will have more coverage, some days will have less. It’s just a good idea to plan for it, keep weather alerts turned on for the area where you are that day, and head for cover when you hear thunder. Washout afternoons seem pretty unlikely, as there’s enough upper-level flow to keep storms moving, rather than meandering or stalling in one place.
Central Florida Tropical Weather Outlook
One area of interest has been highlighted by the National Hurricane Center. Right now it’s just a tropical wave over Hispaniola, with an expected track taking it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. Once it’s in the warm Gulf by the end of the week, we’ll have a better idea of whether the atmosphere will let it develop into anything more than a cluster of showers and thunderstorms.
Right now, the disturbance has a 20% chance of development into a tropical system in the next five days.
As noted in last week’s update, a newly developing La Niña is expected to produce an enhanced environment for tropical weather development in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. That, along with the coming height of the hurricane season in August and September, could make for a busier storm forecast in future weeks.