The cold front arrives! A little late, but at last, Walt Disney World gets its first real, cool day. The good news? There’s more where that came from. Are we going to get another taste of summer once the cold front clears Florida? And is there something brewing in the Gulf of Mexico for next weekend? Let’s see what’s coming this week in Walt Disney World weather.
Summer Part II
Last week was a weird rehash of summer that we thought we’d left behind in late August. Granted, the temperatures were in the 80s, not the 90s. But there was no discounting the heat of the sun at midday, and those downpours were definitely summer-like! A combination of factors, including a warm front sagging across our area and a persistent onshore flow, gave us a lot more rain than we usually see this time of year.
The heat and humidity brought episodes of heavy thunderstorms all week long, including a memorable late-evening storm, filled with brilliant lightning, which must have washed out a lot of fireworks plans.
The change came Saturday with a soggy cold front sliding down from the northwest. Cold fronts often bring what we call a “shield” of rain—just a ton of rain that lasts for hours, basically—and this one brought a half inch of rain to some parts of Central Florida! Afterwards, the temperature dipped to a chilly (by Floridian standards) 61 degrees.
This week’s weather at Walt Disney World
Seasonal at last! It’s a word we haven’t seen on many forecasts over the past six months, unless it was coupled with the word “above,” as in: “temperatures are expected to be above seasonal averages.” October 2019, in fact, now holds the record for warmest monthly average temperature: 79.3 degrees. The climate records for Orlando go back to 1923. If you’re counting, 1923 was also the year Walt Disney’s Laugh-O-Gram Studio went bust, and he started to think about heading west from Kansas City. It’s been a little bit.
But with any luck, November will cool off enough to keep us out of the record books. The highest temperature recorded in October was 92. Let’s see if we can keep the 90s out of this traditionally cooler month. The average high for November is 78; the average low is 59.
A dry airmass starts the week, with sunshine above and gentle breezes to keep you cool. Look for high temperatures close to 80 degrees by midday through Monday, and chilly lows in the low 60s overnight.
By Tuesday we are prepping for our next cold front, and things will start out pretty hot, with temps pushing back into the mid 80s. Since this isn’t a particularly wet cold front, and it doesn’t have a lot of lift associated with it, we aren’t expecting this hot weather to spark heavy storms like we saw last week. Still, showers will develop Tuesday overnight and last through Wednesday morning before heading off to the south by the afternoon.
The cold front will leave behind much cooler temperatures—lows in the upper 50s are a possibility for the Walt Disney World area! You’re going to see so many Cast Members breaking out their winter gear on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will stay pleasant as the rain departs, with a high in the 70s.
So the early part of the week looks pretty straightforward. Some sun, some showers. It’s Thursday through Saturday that have big question marks around them.
The reason is there’s going to be something in the Gulf of Mexico, and we don’t quite know what it is yet. What the models agree upon is that there’s a surface low in the Gulf that will be approaching the west coast of Florida ahead of a trough of low pressure—that is, a cold front.
What they don’t agree upon is strength, and timing. Sound familiar?
We have the GFS showing this system bringing Florida have rain and storms as the cold front approaches and enhances its energy, making Thursday-Saturday very soggy. The ECMWF model, though, shows the system rather weakly approaching, then merging with the cold front, enhancing the cold front’s rain chances on Friday and Saturday but leaving Thursday dry.
Right now, the National Weather Service meteorologists are settling on a 50% chance of rain on Friday and Saturday, but we’ll have to wait a few days to see how this system in the Gulf of Mexico really does develop.
The temperatures for the end of the week will settle into seasonal highs and lows, with a day temperature reaching the upper 70s and a night low reaching the low to mid 60s.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Despite the potential for the low pressure system in the Gulf later this week, there’s no tropical weather predicted for the next five days. This is the time of year when we start looking north and watching powerful cold fronts for our upcoming weather. Enjoy it!