Early October Crowds At The Studios – An Update
This is an update from a previous article. Click here to read the original article.
We have received some great suggestions and some interesting theories about why Toy Story Mania Fastpass is distributing so quickly. Whatever the reason, it would have to be something that didn’t exist before. If it did exist before then our models would pick it up.
For example, attractions at the Studios have been closed before and we didn’t see a spike in Fastpass distribution rates for Toy Story Mania. This makes us think that the closure of Star Tours does not have a significant affect.
Canadian Thanksgiving always occurs on the second Monday of October and altough we have strong evidence that Canadians like Walt Disney World (present company included) historically, the wait times are not affected. The phenomenon seems to be affecting only Toy Story Mania Fastpass so it seems strange that Canadians would specifically be targetting Fastpasses at this attraction.
What makes more sense is a change to the exit system at Toy Story Mania that was implemented in late summer of this year. Check out these comments by our friend Brian, a University of Michigan professor and fellow Disney-nut.
One potential factor: during its most recent refurbishment (in late August of this year), exit gates were added to the attraction. Reportedly, this noticeably increased dispatch interval, which in turn lowers the capacity of the attraction. Once that lower actual capacity is measured, the [Fastpass] system should respond by giving out fewer [Fastpasses] per hour to maintain the Fastpass/Standby mix—so, [Fastpass] would sell out more quickly than it would have pre-refurbishment. I don’t know how long your model has been under-estimating Fastpass times, but if it is tracking roughly to early September, this could be why.
Are the other attractions also being under-estimated? If not, that could lend more weight to the theory that Toy Story, not crowd level, has changed.
Brian Noble
Associate Professor of
Computer Science and Engineering
University of Michigan
It is interesting that Brian’s theory would explain why we have seen this sudden increase in the Fastpass distribution rate for Toy Story Mania. We took a look at other attractions at the Studios and we see that the wait times and Fastpass distribution rates at the other attractions are in-line with our predictions.
Toy Story Mania 2?
The difference in Fastpass distribution rate is significant. Fastpasses have sold out more than 50% faster since mid-September. Since the opening of Toy Story Mania in May 2008, the capacity of the attraction has been lower than expected (about 900 guests per hour). If the changes to the exit system continue as they are now, Toy Story Mania will compete with Dumbo for the slowest turnover rate of all Walt Disney Resort Attractions (about 700 guests per hour).
What should we do if we are touring the Studios this fall?
Since this is only affecting the Fastpass booth for Toy Story Mania it does not mean that crowds are suddenly heavier at the Studios. Crowds are about the same as one would expect for this time of year (less than 6 on the crowd calendar). If you are planning on experiencing Toy Story Mania in the near future however, it will be even more important to arrive early and head straight to the attraction. If you are in the first few dozen people in line, the standby wait should be small. If you prefer to get a Fastpass, make sure you head to the Fastpass booth before 10:30am. Fastpasses will sell out quickly!
You May Also Like...
-
Magic Kingdom is seeing some larger than expected crowds on non-party days in October. The crowds are even more significant when…
-
Today, we're covering an update to the Universal Orlando Crowd Calendar. Crowd Patterns at Universal A consistent crowd pattern seems to…
-
Crowd levels are up at Walt Disney World. On October 12, 2020, Disney's CEO Bob Chapek said in a CNBC interview…
-
This Crowd Calendar update is a full update going through September 2021. To make such a long-range forecast we are making some assumptions:…
Just returned from a trip to WDW and read with interest the articles and comments on the TSM Fastpass situation. We went to HS a Tuesday (November 2). Arrived before the park opened and were at the very front of the opening crowd. Went straight to TSM to get FP’s and were among the first 10 or so folks at the distribution machines. Our FP distribution window was already showing after 9:45 AM and the posted Standby wait time was at 50 minutes, neither of which made sense. After getting our FP’s, we “ignored” the Standby time and went on in. We probably didn’t have to wait any longer than about 10 minutes to get on the ride. To “kill” time, we went back over to RRC and Tower, walked right into both attractions and rode with little Standby wait time, then returned to TSM to use our FP’s. Maybe this is just Disney’s way of trying to spread the crowds out a bit more evenly to the other attractions in other sections of the park. With StarTours closed and the various shows not starting until later in the AM, there really isn’t much to do in that area of the park.
Can someone explain the “change” that was made to the ride? Is it harder to get off of? Could Disney “unchange” it due to the smaller amount of people getting through the ride? It just seems the last thing you would want at the most popular ride on property is to slow things down. If it was a safty issue, of course that would be a good reason.
They added safety gates that open up to meet the exit side of the car, and it mostly prevents children from wandering off the ride vehicle and onto the track path. From what I could see, they seem to work pretty efficiently and open up rather quickly. But, apparently, the issue is with closing the gates back and departure of the vehicle. We were there last week and waited in line for over an hour, and I watched the operation a couple of times, but really couldn’t see where the issue was.
It’s just crazy. Seems like somewhere, somebody posted a message on a billboard telling everybody to get a Fastpass for TSM first thing when you get there. Perhaps the solution might be to suspend it for a short time, and see if this makes any difference in the standby wait time.
A couple of other thoughts, but probably not very popular. Close off the front entrance to Pixar place in the mornings for the first hour and require guests to come in the back way. It would probably just irritate guests more than anything, but it would reduce the amount of FPs and riders for the first hour or so. Another idea would be to reduce the number of FP machines to just two or three. Fewer machines equals fewer FPs, right? Or will that just lead to greater guest irritation?
Another thought, and I know this was alluded to, but with Star Tours down, it does have some effect. Perhaps if GMR or one of the other attractions in the park were “better”, it might help to balance out the park.
If it were me, I would love to try Toy Story Mania as the first attraction to use Fastpass exclusively, no standby line. That would be an interesting experiment.
The problem is probably not as visible as you might think. We’re talking about a 5-10% reduction in loading time, enough to make a difference across the whole day.
I thought it seemed starnge that TSM was distributing all of the fastpasses so early in the day for a pretty quiet time of year. The exit changes seem to make sense.
I also noticed this issue at TSM earlier this week. Lines was underestimating wait times by 50% and the FPs were gone much earlier than I’ve ever seen before which was not what I would have expected for October. Standby was 120minutes by mid-afternoon but the crowd wasn’t crazy crowded.
Signed,
A Canadian who went to WDW for Thanksgiving (and loved the French Word of the Day at the Canadian Pavillion – Dinde).
Awesome, eh? 😉
Mais oui! J’aime le dinde!
I think you kinda answered this in your article, but do all attractions give out an equal number of fastpasses? Because I was trying to figure out the other day why, around noon, Tower of Terror was at a 20 minute wait with an FP return time of 7:10, and Rock n’ Roller Coaster, which one could argue is the more popular attraction of the two, had a 60 minute wait but an FP return time of 4:30. I would think, in the same vein of Toy Story Mania, RnRC would turn out FPs more quickly because it is the more popular attraction.
Attractions do NOT give out an equal number of Fastpasses. It all depends on the capacity of the ride. We measure capacity by the number of persons the attraction can process in an hour. Fastpasses are distributed at a pre-determined rate based on capacity.
The time you wait (or the number of fastpasses distributed) depends on two things:
1) The popularity of the attraction
2) The capacity
Unfortunately Toy Story Mania is very popular and has a low capacity. Compare that to Universe of Energy which is less popular but has a much higher capacity.
Visually, the crowds were high at the Studios yesterday (10/14) but it was the typically one side of the park is heavy while the other is light. We did TSMM twice, first time getting off was a wall of people worse than Grand Central Station. Second time Pixar Place was dead. Odd thing when we stepped off the first time, wait time was 110. Stepping off the second time 120.
So I tend to agree that the crowd itself is not dictating the throughput changes, but rather the crowd management (which exit gates do fall into that category).
Also Tower of Terror FPs were gone by 1:30p as well. My guess is people got one there once TSMM was out.