Disney Data Dump July 2 2025

For the first time ever, this week’s Data Dump comes to you from the back porch of Jambo House, with giraffes grazing in the distance and just enough breeze to keep the laptop from overheating. If it sounds dreamy, that’s because it is. And it’s the perfect place to reflect on what continues to be one of the most relaxing summers we’ve seen at Walt Disney World in years. We’re headed into a holiday weekend, which sometimes means crowds—but will they show up? Let’s dive into the data from the past week and find out.

Observed Crowd Levels June 24 – 30

Oh boy, look at those holiday crowds ramping up into the July 4th weekend! (Is joke). This week and last week had the same exact average crowd levels for the resort as a whole. This week is just more steadily on a down trend. I’m jumping ahead a bit to predictions, but Pirate passes are blocked out starting today (if you’re reading on the 2nd) through the 6th, and any time that has happened in the past 12 months, the parks have emptied out. We’ll see if the trend holds.

One interesting note here is that for the first time in a long time, Hollywood Studios is “competing” for most crowded park with Animal Kingdom and EPCOT, which have owned the crowd calendar for much of the past year. Magic Kingdom is still pleasant almost every single day, rarely bumping up above a crowd level 2.

Performance of Crowd Level Predictions

Each week, I give you a very transparent look into how the TouringPlans crowd level predictions performed. Each day at each park is one data point, so each week we have 28 different crowd level predictions to evaluate. Any time a prediction is within one or two crowd levels, things won’t really “feel” much different than what was predicted. Being off by 3 or more crowd levels is where you might feel that difference in wait times throughout the day.

In the past week, Touring Plans predictions were either spot-on or within 1 crowd level 14% of the time. That’s back down from last week, and close to our historic lows. Just 39% of the time Touring Plans predictions were within 2 crowd levels, so that means we get an F for our predictions in the past week again. All misses were over-predictions (and even all of the “Within 1 CL” days were over-predictions by one crowd level), meaning that crowds came in lower than expected throughout the past week. On average, the crowd level at any park any day of the week was about 2.6 crowd levels below prediction. That means crowds were once again significantly, noticeably, below what was predicted. The biggest miss of the week was an overprediction by 5 crowd levels, which happened at Hollywood Studios on June 30th. On that day, the park was predicted to be a crowd level 8, but only ended up being a crowd level 3.

Attraction Downtime June 24 – 30

If we average all of the capacity lost due to unexpected downtime over the past week, it comes out to 4.1% of attractions unexpectedly being down. That’s exactly the same as last week. Consistency! In the past week, Animal Kingdom was the park with the most overall downtime, averaging 7.3% of its capacity lost to downtime throughout the week. That’s also exactly the same as last week. Eerie. I even thought maybe I was using old data files. But no, reader, I went back and double-checked. It’s been a bad couple of weeks at Animal Kingdom.

The worst day for attraction downtime in the past week was on June 29th. On that day, 7% of all capacity at WDW was lost due to unexpected downtime. The worst park-day of the week was on June 29th at Animal Kingdom – another predictable combo of our worst day and worst park. On that day, 16% of attraction capacity was lost due to unexpected downtime. Animal Kingdom was open for 10 hours on the 29th, so 16% downtime is the equivalent of the entire park shutting down for over an hour and a half.

Attraction Downtime Worst Offender

In the past week, Expedition Everest was the WDW attraction with the worst overall downtime. Everest was unexpectedly down for 18% of the past week. Some of that was weather-related, but not most of it. That’s rough at a park with few attractions. The worst day at Expedition Everest was on June 28th, when the attraction was down for 36% of the day. But it was down 20% or more of the day on 4 out of the past 7 days.

Rope Drop Downtime

Here are problematic offenders from the past week, with the percentage of downtime during the first hour of the day in parentheses:

• Magic Kingdom: Space Mountain (28%), Tiana’s Bayou Adventure (28%), Jungle Cruise (17%), Buzz Lightyear (13%)
• EPCOT: Spaceship Earth (21%), Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure (16%), Cosmic Rewind (11%)
• Hollywood Studios: Rise of the Resistance (16%)
• Animal Kingdom: Dinosaur (27%)

There were very few rope drop issues last week, but this week problems were back at all parks. Magic Kingdom had rope drop problems everywhere other than Fantasyland. EPCOT had rope drop issues at 2 out of its 3 best rope drop options. Hollywood Studios did better than usual, but Rise of the Resistance is back on the list after a decent break from appearing here. And Animal Kingdom doesn’t get its gold star this week thanks to Dinosaur not playing nice.

Wait Times June 24 – 30

Attractions with the Highest Average Posted Wait at Each Park

• Magic Kingdom: TRON, average posted wait time of 78 minutes (was 72 minutes last week)
• Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash, average posted wait of 75 minutes (was 69 minutes two weeks ago)
• Animal Kingdom: Flight of Passage, average posted wait time of 74 minutes (was 73 minutes last week)
• EPCOT: Cosmic Rewind, average posted wait of 74 minutes (was 72 minutes last week)

So even with overall average crowd levels staying the same, headliner waits were up across the board. Thankfully they were moderated by lower wait times at “secondary” attractions at all parks.

Parks with the Highest and Lowest Average Wait

These parks likely won’t change week-to-week unless something ridiculous happens, but these data points will give us a high-level view of how wait times are trending from week to week.

• Highest: Animal Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 40 minutes (was 40 minutes last week)
• Lowest: Magic Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 23 minutes (was 23 minutes last week)

Just like last week, we see the impact of a small attraction roster and major downtime issues at Animal Kingdom. It pushes waits up everywhere. Thankfully, there is plenty to do at Animal Kingdom without waiting in a line.

Most Inflated Posted Wait Times

We all know that Disney inflates their posted wait times on purpose. They have many reasons for doing this. Some are totally understandable, and some are potentially more problematic. We can figure out how much posted wait times are being inflated by comparing submitted actual wait times from the Lines App and the posted wait time when the person timing their wait entered the line.

Over the past week, actual wait times in the Lines App averaged 68% of what was posted. Overall, if the posted wait time at a popular attraction was 60 minutes, you could’ve expected to wait 41 minutes instead.

But the worst offender for the past week was Mission: Space Green. At this one attraction, submitted actual wait times were only 37% of posted wait times in the past week. That means that if the attraction had a 25 minute posted wait, you probably would have actually only waited about 9 minutes instead. Almost a third of what was posted. Remember to always check the Lines app for predicted actual waits instead of making decisions based on what is posted.

This Week’s Wait Time Rock Star

Between June 24th and 30th, we had over 900 timed actual waits submitted through the Lines app. The one person who recorded the most actual waits during that time was vdlively, with 52 overall timed waits – 46 standby waits and 6 Lightning Lane waits. Thanks for all of that timing, vdlively! It unfortunately does not compete with the the 97 timed waits in a single week from our current timing champion, preef.

Looking Ahead: July 1 – 7

I write this article on Tuesday evenings so that you all have the very freshest of data on Wednesdays. That means the 1st will already be in the past by the time you’ve read this, welcome to your future!

Like I mentioned at the top of this post, Pirate passes are blocked out from July 2nd through 6th. Over the past year or so, whenever that happens, crowd levels drop. I expect this week to be much of the same. Those blocks, combined with what looks like a lot of rain (at least in the afternoons) should give us a 4th of July weekend with low crowds. But maybe Cool Kid Summer will finally have its intended effect, and crowds will arrive instead? I think it’s unlikely, but the long weekend combined with the deals might lure some families.

Were you in the parks this past week? Or are you headed to Orlando soon? Let me know in the comments below!