Disney Data Dump November 19 2025

Veterans Day week at Walt Disney World came with exactly the kind of whiplash we should expect by now: a busy holiday hangover, a midweek dip, and then another Saturday spike as locals poured back into the parks. Layer on top a whole host of holiday parties, and you get some really weird patterns. Throw in cold weather and one of the roughest rope-drop downtime weeks we’ve seen in a while and a headliner that just can’t seem to pull it together, and there’s a lot to unpack behind the low crowd level numbers. Let’s go over it all together!

Observed Crowd Levels November 11 – 17

No big shocks here for the past week. As expected, the long Veterans Day weekend inspired some people to stick around in Orlando for just a little while longer … and then things emptied out. Until Saturday, that is, when the locals stepped back out to enjoy the weekend. This is a trend that we’ve been seeing for a few weeks. Saturday is popular!

Now this is an interesting week! Ready to play our game of “when were the parties?”
Answer 1: Magic Kingdom hosted MVMCP on the 11th, 13th, 14th, and 16th. That made the 12th an especially bad day since crowds were still elevated from the holiday weekend. But any time you’ve got a non-party day surrounded by 3 party days, it’s going to be pretty ugly compared to everything around it.
Answer 2: Hollywood Studios hosted Jollywood Nights on the 15th and 17th. Interestingly, Jollywood Nights does seem to have an impact on crowd levels … but at other parks. For example, the 16th should’ve theoretically been crowded at Hollywood Studios. It was surrounded by two early closures. But it stayed crowd level 2. Instead, what we see is that on party days, crowd levels at other parks go way up. It’s not just MK, because that could be explained away by non-party day behavior. It’s EPCOT too (and sometimes Animal Kingdom).

Performance of Crowd Level Predictions

Each week, I give you a very transparent look into how the TouringPlans crowd level predictions performed. Each day at each park is one data point, so each week we have 28 different crowd level predictions to evaluate. Any time a prediction is within one or two crowd levels, things won’t really “feel” much different than what was predicted. Being off by 3 or more crowd levels is where you might feel that difference in wait times throughout the day.

In the past week, Touring Plans predictions were either spot-on or within 1 crowd level 54% of the time, which is better than the past month or so. But only 61% of the time Touring Plans predictions were within 2 crowd levels, so that means we get a D= for our predictions in the past week, which is worse than the past month or so. On average, any park you visited this week would’ve been 1.6 crowd levels below what was predicted, which isn’t too noticeable. The biggest miss of the week was an overprediction of 5 crowd levels, which happened twice – at EPCOT on the 12th and Hollywood Studios on the 14th. EPCOT was predicted to be a 6 and ended up being a 1 on the 12th, and Hollywood Studios was predicted to be an 8 on the 14th, and ended up being a 3.

Attraction Downtime November 11 – 17

If we average all of the capacity lost due to unexpected downtime over the past week, it comes out to 5% of attractions unexpectedly being down. That’s back above our historical average. In the past week, Hollywood Studios was the park with the most overall downtime, averaging 6% of its capacity lost to downtime throughout that period. All parks were pretty tightly packed around that WDW-wide average.

The worst day for attraction downtime in the past week was on November 11th. On that day, 10% of all capacity at WDW was lost due to unexpected downtime. It was a cold day in Florida, but not particularly rainy. Still, that temperature may have impacted attraction uptime. And the worst park-day was another bad one. It happened at Animal Kingdom on November 11th. On that day, 19% of AK’s attraction capacity was lost due to unexpected downtime. (If you rewind to last week’s data dump, the 10th had 22% downtime at AK! That’s two REALLY bad days in a row.) Animal Kingdom was open for 11 hours on the 11th, so 19% downtime is the equivalent of the entire park shutting down for over 2 hours that day – almost 130 minutes, to be exact. Just like the 10th, most of that was due to Expedition Everest being down almost all day. With so few attractions open at Animal Kingdom, a high-capacity attraction like that being unavailable has huge impacts throughout the park.

Attraction Downtime Worst Offender

In the past week, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure was the WDW attraction with the worst overall unplanned downtime. This data point is always unplanned downtime, but it feels important to call out here because Remy already had several days of planned downtime this week to take out the 3D elements. But it was unexpectedly down for 23% of the past week. And that’s after the 3D conversion! I was honestly hoping we’d get a more reliable Remy when it converted to 2D, but it seems like that’s not the case. It makes me worry that it’s just trending more and more unreliable. We’ve also been keeping track of downtime at Spaceship Earth (it was 8%, which is the lowest number we’ve seen since reopening) and Test Track (10%, much below its average). Anyway, the worst day at Remy over the last week was on November 14th, when it was down 41% of the day.

Rope Drop Downtime

Prepare yourselves. It’s a rough one!

Here are problematic offenders from the past week, with the percentage of downtime during the first hour of the day in parentheses:

• Magic Kingdom: Tiana’s Bayou Adventure (43%), Magic Carpets (38%), The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh (35%), Monsters Inc, Laugh Floor (29%), Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (22%), TTA PeopleMover (21%), Haunted Mansion (14%), Under the Sea (10%)
• EPCOT: Test Track (47%), Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure (43%), Spaceship Earth (25%), Frozen Ever After (21%), The Seas with Nemo and Friends (15%)
• Hollywood Studios: Rock’n’Roller Coaster (34%), Runaway Railway (26%), Tower of Terror (18%), Star Tours (13%)
• Animal Kingdom: Expedition Everest (30%)

Not only are those lists much longer than normal, they’re also full of much higher numbers than normal. We’ve got three attractions with over 40% rope drop downtime in the past week! Yikes. Specifically, Magic Kingdom had lots of problems all over. Peter Pan, Space Mountain, Jungle Cruise, and Tron were the reliable early entry and regular rope drop options.

EPCOT was almost a total disaster, thanks to rope drop issues at Test Track, Remy, AND Frozen Ever After. Thankfully, Cosmic Rewind was the reliable option there.

Hollywood Studios is an interesting mix because it had four attractions show up, but Rise of the Resistance and Slinky Dog Dash, which have had a bad few weeks, were actually fine this week. Unpredictably unreliable, those two.

And no gold star for Animal Kingdom, thanks to the woes of Expedition Everest.

Wait Times November 11 – 17

Attractions with the Highest Average Posted Wait at Each Park November 11 – 17

• EPCOT: Test Track, average posted wait of 74 minutes (was 75 minutes at Cosmic Rewind last week)
• Animal Kingdom: Flight of Passage, average posted wait time of 56 minutes (was 54 minutes last week)
• Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash, average posted wait of 55 minutes (was 61 minutes last week)
• Magic Kingdom: TRON, average posted wait time of 54 minutes (was 56 minutes last week)

Continuing a trend from last week, all three of the top three average waits of the past week were at EPCOT! Cosmic Rewind had an average posted wait of 70 minutes, and Remy had an average posted wait of 66 minutes. So there were only three attractions in all of WDW with average posted waits over an hour for the past week, and all three were at EPCOT. Increasingly, EPCOT is the park where you need the best plan to avoid long waits. Thankfully, there are plenty of entertainment options and non-wait things to do at EPCOT too. But be prepared with a good rope drop plan! (And a good backup rope drop plan …)

Parks with the Highest and Lowest Average Wait November 11 – 17

• Highest: Hollywood Studios, average park-wide posted wait of 33 minutes (was 34.5 minutes last week)
• Lowest: Magic Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 22 minutes (was 21 minutes last week)

EPCOT and Hollywood Studios both stayed over the 30 minute average this week, while Animal Kingdom dropped to 29 minutes, and Magic Kingdom ticked up just a little bit thanks to those very crowded non-party days.

Most Inflated Posted Wait Times

We all know that Disney inflates their posted wait times on purpose. They have many reasons for doing this. Some are totally understandable, and some are potentially more problematic. We can figure out how much posted wait times are being inflated by comparing submitted actual wait times from the Lines App and the posted wait time when the person timing their wait entered the line.

Over the past week, actual wait times in the Lines App averaged 71% of what was posted. That’s above our historical average, which means posted wait times were inflated less than normal! Hooray. Overall, if the posted wait time at a popular attraction was 60 minutes, you could’ve expected to wait about 43 minutes instead.

But the worst inflation offender for the past two weeks was Enchanted Tales with Belle. At this one attraction, submitted actual wait times were 30% of posted wait times in the past week. That means that if Enchanted Tales with Belle had a 30 minute posted wait, you probably would have actually only waited 9 minutes instead. Less than a third of what was posted! Remember to always check the Lines app for predicted actual waits instead of making decisions based on what is poste. For Enchanted Tales specifically, line length is very “burst-y” due to the nature of the show. Some portion of your wait solely depends on when you showed up into the line and when the next show starts.

This Week’s Wait Time Rock Star

Between November 11th and 17th, we had just over 1200 timed actual waits submitted through the Lines app. The one person who recorded the most actual waits during that time was Ellis Pope, with 51 overall timed waits – and it was in hard mode, with all standby waits. Thanks for all of that timing, Ellis Pope! Once again, it unfortunately does not compete with the the 97 timed waits in a single week from our current timing champion, preef.

Looking Ahead: November 18 – 25

I write this article on Tuesday evenings so that you all have the very freshest of data on Wednesdays. That means the 18th will already be in the past by the time you’ve read this, so you’re time travelling!

Party dates to consider: Jollywood Nights will be at Hollywood Studios on the 22nd and 24th. Even more importantly, Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party will mean Magic Kingdom closes early to guests on the 18th, 20th, 21st, and 25th. This serves as your official notice that the 19th will likely be especially crowded.

Otherwise, crowd levels should stay in the moderate to slightly-low range at least until the week of Thanksgiving. Nothing crazy going on. Unless John Stamos causes more havoc, I guess 😉

The next week looks like a lot of sun and consistent highs in the mid-80s. Lows are only in the 60s, so we shouldn’t see the big batch of cold-related downtime issues that we saw this week.

Were you in the parks this past week? Or are you headed to Orlando soon? Let me know in the comments below!