Disney Data Dump July 9 2025

I don’t want to jinx anything, but I think we just lived through one of the most delightfully weird weeks on record at Walt Disney World. We’re smack in the middle of an already uncrowded summer season, and the parks felt downright … chill. Pirate Pass blockouts helped keep things quiet, storms kept crowds moving, and I personally got to enjoy one of the lowest-wait 4th of Julys I’ve ever experienced, plus say goodbye to my beloved Tom Sawyer Island with very little wait. Let’s dig into the data from July 1st through 7th and see how the rest of you did.

Observed Crowd Levels July 1 – 7

Does it get better than this? I don’t know if it gets better than this. Maybe in late August or early September. These crowd levels are rock-bottom! Even compared to the past two weeks, where crowd levels were hovering in the 3-5 range, this is noticeably nicer. A lot of that is thanks to Pirate Passes being blocked out from July 2nd through 6th. The non-blockout days were our crowd level 3 days. And the 4th got up to a crowd level three mostly thanks to a bunch of afternoon rain forcing wait times up at attractions that were able to stay open.

Look, even I was tempted to visit EPCOT on the 4th. Listen to Voices of Liberty? Watch American Adventure? A distinctly patriotic way to spend the 4th. But I knew lots of people would feel that way, so we spent the morning in Hollywood Studios instead, which was a glorious decision. The mid-morning posted wait at Rise of the Resistance was … wait for it … 15 minutes. I was busy doing Cool Kid Summer things with my little kid (Hollywood Studios has the best offering of CKS activities by far), where we met 16 different characters with a total of maybe 5 minutes of waiting. But my big kid and husband did Rock’n’Roller Coaster three times and Rise of the Resistance twice, all in less than 2 hours, and without early entry. This is the stuff Walt Disney World touring dreams are made of.

July 6th was one of the least-crowded days of the past 12 months. Even cast members at resorts were talking about how empty everything seemed. It was bizarre.

Performance of Crowd Level Predictions

Each week, I give you a very transparent look into how the TouringPlans crowd level predictions performed. Each day at each park is one data point, so each week we have 28 different crowd level predictions to evaluate. Any time a prediction is within one or two crowd levels, things won’t really “feel” much different than what was predicted. Being off by 3 or more crowd levels is where you might feel that difference in wait times throughout the day.

In the past week, Touring Plans predictions were either spot-on or within 1 crowd level 4% of the time. That’s a single park-day, and it was an overprediction by one crowd level. That’s the second-lowest result we’ve ever seen. Just 18% of the time Touring Plans predictions were within 2 crowd levels, so that means we get an F for our predictions in the past week … again. All misses were over-predictions, meaning that crowds came in lower than expected throughout the past week. On average, the crowd level at any park any day of the week was about 3.4 crowd levels below prediction. That means crowds were once again significantly, noticeably, below what was predicted. The biggest miss of the week was an overprediction by 6 crowd levels, which happened at Hollywood Studios on THREE different days – July 3rd, 6th, and 7th. So probably just good to note that HS isn’t going to be hitting the crowd level 8s and 9s predicted on the calendar. Not gonna happen. Don’t plan for it.

Attraction Downtime July 1 – 7

If we average all of the capacity lost due to unexpected downtime over the past week, it comes out to 5% of attractions unexpectedly being down. That’s a bit up from the past couple of weeks, and a lot of it is due to afternoon thunderstorms becoming more consistent. In the past week, Hollywood Studios was the park with the most overall downtime, averaging 6.4% of its capacity lost to downtime throughout the week. Thankfully, all of that downtime didn’t have much impact on wait times in a low-crowd week.

The worst day for attraction downtime in the past week was on July 4th. On that day, 7% of all capacity at WDW was lost due to unexpected downtime. The worst park-day of the week was on July 2nd at Hollywood Studios. On that day, 14% of attraction capacity was lost due to unexpected downtime. Hollywood Studios was open for 12 hours on the 2nd, so 16% downtime is the equivalent of the entire park shutting down for over 100 minutes. Not a great guest experience.

Attraction Downtime Worst Offender

In the past week, Slinky Dog Dash was the WDW attraction with the worst overall downtime. Oof. Everest was unexpectedly down for 24% of the past week. Some of that was weather-related, but not most of it. That’s really poor performance at one of the most popular headliners at WDW. The worst day at Slinky was on July 1st, when the attraction was down for 79% of the day. Ouch ouch ouch. But it was also down 33% of the day on July 7th.

Rope Drop Downtime

Here are problematic offenders from the past week, with the percentage of downtime during the first hour of the day in parentheses:

• Magic Kingdom: Space Mountain (13%), Pirates of the Caribbean (13%), Tiana’s Bayou Adventure (12%)
• EPCOT: Frozen Ever After (25%), Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure (23%)
• Hollywood Studios: Rock’n’Roller Coaster (14%), Rise of the Resistance (11%)
• Animal Kingdom: No rope drop downtime issues!

It was a particularly bad week for folks trying to rope drop EPCOT. Especially families. There was a one-in-four chance that Frozen was broken down during the first hour of operation, AND almost a one-in-four chance that Remy wasn’t operating during the first hour. Hopefully things straighten out there.

Wait Times July 1 – 7

Attractions with the Highest Average Posted Wait at Each Park

• Magic Kingdom: TRON, average posted wait time of 67 minutes (was 78 minutes last week)
• EPCOT: Cosmic Rewind, average posted wait of 67 minutes (was 74 minutes last week)
• Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash, average posted wait of 56 minutes (was 75 minutes two weeks ago)
• Animal Kingdom: Flight of Passage, average posted wait time of 56 minutes (was 74 minutes last week)

Take a minute and let those numbers sink in. They mean that in all of Walt Disney World, only two attractions averaged over an hour posted wait for the week. Slinky Dog Dash (with its 24% downtime nonetheless) and Flight of Passage both averaged under an hour. That’s incredibly rare. And actual wait times were even lower!

Parks with the Highest and Lowest Average Wait

These parks likely won’t change week-to-week unless something ridiculous happens, but these data points will give us a high-level view of how wait times are trending from week to week.

• Highest: Animal Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 29.5 minutes (was 40 minutes last week)
• Lowest: Magic Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 18.5 minutes (was 23 minutes last week)

Look at those wait time drops! Every park had an average posted wait of less than 30 minutes for the past week. Again, incredibly rare – especially given that we’re in the heart of summer thunderstorm downtime issues driving up other waits. And Magic Kingdom doesn’t usually dip below 20 minutes unless it’s party season. What a weird week.

Most Inflated Posted Wait Times

We all know that Disney inflates their posted wait times on purpose. They have many reasons for doing this. Some are totally understandable, and some are potentially more problematic. We can figure out how much posted wait times are being inflated by comparing submitted actual wait times from the Lines App and the posted wait time when the person timing their wait entered the line.

Over the past week, actual wait times in the Lines App averaged 64% of what was posted. That’s the lowest number we’ve seen in many many months. Maybe years? And it means that those low posted wait times and low crowd levels were even lower than what the posted waits imply. Overall, if the posted wait time at a popular attraction was 30 minutes, you could’ve expected to wait 19 minutes instead.

But the worst offender for the past week was The Barnstormer. At this one attraction, submitted actual wait times were only 38% of posted wait times in the past week. That means that if the attraction had a 15 minute posted wait, you probably would have actually only waited less than 6 minutes instead. Almost a third of what was posted. Remember to always check the Lines app for predicted actual waits instead of making decisions based on what is posted.

This Week’s Wait Time Rock Star

Between July 1st and 7th, we had over 1000 timed actual waits submitted through the Lines app. The one person who recorded the most actual waits during that time was EriktheRed64, with 25 overall timed waits – in hard mode, which means all standby waits. Even more impressively, all 25 were on one day! July 3rd in the Magic Kingdom. Thanks for that full day of timing, EriktheRed64! It unfortunately does not compete with the the 97 timed waits in a single week from our current timing champion, preef.

Looking Ahead: July 8 – 14

I write this article on Tuesday evenings so that you all have the very freshest of data on Wednesdays. That means the 8th will already be in the past by the time you’ve read this, you’ve gone back to the future!

Not much is changing as we head toward the middle of the July. It’s the calm before the storm … if any storm is coming. Pirate Passes aren’t blocked out, so wait times will edge back up. Test Track AP previews will start toward the end of this week, but that won’t be too noticeable other than locals trying out that one attraction. The big stuff doesn’t start until July 20th, with Starlight’s debut, and then July 22nd with Test Track’s official reopening.

Between now and then, enjoy the chill parks. Be prepared for plenty of pop-up showers and storms.

Bonus Content: Tom Sawyer Island & Liberty Belle Tribute

I was in Magic Kingdom for the last day of Tom Sawyer Island and the Liberty Belle Riverboat. I was on the first raft out to the Island, and my family also rode the Riverboat and took a last full lap (for now) on the Railroad. I get that the parks are always changing. This is just a section that was such a great escape in the middle of the chaos, and I’ll personally miss it a lot. Here are some photos from that last day.

Were you in the parks this past week? Or are you headed to Orlando soon? Let me know in the comments below!