Crowd BlogWalt Disney World (FL)

Changes To Crowd Level Prediction Model

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We’ve made some recent changes to the model that we use for predicting crowd levels and calculating best day / worst day park recommendations.

It should give us a little more precise estimation of the ups and downs of crowd levels within a given time frame. Of course, with updating the way we do things it also gives rise to a few glitches along the way so you may see updates more regularly than normal. Your patience, as always, is appreciated.

What if you’ve made plans based on the crowd calendar and now the crowd calendar has changed?A couple notes of interest:

We have posted dates for Pirate and Princess Parties during 2009 although nothing official has appeared on Disney’s website yet. Our sources tell us these dates are pretty solid so we choose to believe them with the stipulation that if they’re wrong we get to blame them for all the angry emails that we receive. If we hear any news we’ll post it here.

We have increased our predictions for crowds during Superbowl weekend in Tampa since our experience tells us that overflow of hotel bookings in Tampa could increase crowds at Disney that weekend.

Happy touring!

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

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