Disney Data Dump June 18 2025

Remember how last week I said crowds would probably stay in the 3-5 range? I take it back. I take it all back. Not only did crowd levels stay low—they dropped even further. We’re now looking at one of the slowest Junes on record in the past decade. The only slower June was in 2021 during the pandemic (and, to be fair, in 2020 when the parks were still closed). If this trend holds, we’re going to have to rename Cool Kid Summer to Ghost Town Summer. Sure, it’s hot. But if you can handle the heat and love short waits, it doesn’t get much better than this. Let’s take a look at just how empty things got this past week.

Observed Crowd Levels June 10 – 16

Here I was, thinking that last week’s low June crowds were representative of how the summer was going to go. But then crowds went and got even lower. It’s impressive, really. On average, wait times in the first half of June are roughly half of what they were during the same time in 2017, when WDW summer travel peaked. I know people like to complain about Disney crowds and costs. But costs are back down to 2017-ish levels, and crowds are MUCH lower than they were back then. If you can stand the heat, now is the time to be in Orlando.

What is behind those low crowds? Well, plenty of socio-economic issues. But other than that, it’s very clear that Magic Kingdom is especially empty. People are waiting to visit until the new nighttime parade starts. And “Diet EPCOT” (when no festivals are happening) is driving much lower crowds there too. That trend should continue until Test Track previews and grand opening happen.

Performance of Crowd Level Predictions

Each week, I give you a very transparent look into how the TouringPlans crowd level predictions performed. Each day at each park is one data point, so each week we have 28 different crowd level predictions to evaluate. Any time a prediction is within one or two crowd levels, things won’t really “feel” much different than what was predicted. Being off by 3 or more crowd levels is where you might feel that difference in wait times throughout the day.

In the past week, Touring Plans predictions were either spot-on or within 1 crowd level 0% of the time. That’s the worst performance in this history of this little blog series. Even worse than weeks when hurricanes rolled through and shut things down and cancelled vacations. And just 14% of the time Touring Plans predictions were within 2 crowd levels, so that means we get a really low F for our predictions in the past week again. All misses were over-predictions, meaning that crowds came in lower than expected throughout the past week. On average, the crowd level at any park any day of the week was about 3.6 crowd levels below prediction. That means crowds were once again significantly, noticeably, below what was predicted. The biggest miss of the week was an overprediction by 6 crowd levels, which happened at Hollywood Studios on June 15th. On that day, the park was predicted to be a crowd level 7, but only ended up being a crowd level 1.

Many of you have asked in the comments when crowd calendars will be updated after months of significant overpredictions. The Touring Plan stats team is actively working on a major update.

Attraction Downtime June 10 – 16

If we average all of the capacity lost due to unexpected downtime over the past week, it comes out to 3.7% of attractions unexpectedly being down. That’s about what we would predict for weather-related downtime during the summer, without any other major issues happening. In the past week, Magic Kingdom was the park with the most overall downtime, averaging 4.4% of its capacity lost to downtime throughout the week.

The worst day for attraction downtime in the past week was on June 11th. On that day, 8% of all capacity at WDW was lost due to unexpected downtime. The worst park-day of the week was on June 11th at EPCOT. On that day, 12% of attraction capacity was lost due to unexpected downtime. EPCOT was open for 12 hours on the 11th, so 12% downtime is the equivalent of the entire park shutting down for almost an hour and a half.

Attraction Downtime Worst Offender

In the past week, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train was the WDW attraction with the worst overall downtime. 7DMT was unexpectedly down for 16% of the past week. That’s rough at a LLSP attraction, where any Lightning Lane users that would have arrived during downtime are instead shifted to other parts of the day, flooding the Lightning Lane and slowing down standby waits too. Thankfully, overall low crowds mean that this didn’t turn into a huge traffic jam. The worst day at Seven Dwarfs was on June 11th, when the attraction was down for 62% of the day. It was also down for about a third of the day on the 10th.

Rope Drop Downtime

Here are problematic offenders from the past week, with the percentage of downtime during the first hour of the day in parentheses:

• Magic Kingdom: TTA PeopleMover (25%), Pirates of the Caribbean (22%), Tiana’s Bayou Adventure (13%), Space Mountain (10%)
• EPCOT: Gran Fiesta Tour (25%), Journey Into Imagination (16%)
• Hollywood Studios: Rock’n’Roller Coaster (14%), Runaway Railway (12%)
• Animal Kingdom: No rope drop downtime issues!

Not a terrible week, as far as rope drops go. Space Mountain is back on the list for the first time in many months, but 10% downtime isn’t terrible.

Gold star for the week goes to Animal Kingdom! Staying strong, even in summer weather.

Wait Times June 10 – 16

Attractions with the Highest Average Posted Wait at Each Park

• Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash, average posted wait of 67 minutes (was 71 minutes two weeks ago)
• EPCOT: Cosmic Rewind, average posted wait of 64 minutes (was 83 minutes last week)
• Magic Kingdom: TRON, average posted wait time of 58 minutes (was 72 minutes last week)
• Animal Kingdom: Flight of Passage, average posted wait time of 55 minutes (was 64 minutes last week)

Holy wait time drops, Batman! The headliners at each park all saw significant drops in their average wait compared to an already-slow beginning of June. When there are only two attractions in all of WDW that average a posted wait of over an hour, that’s a rare and lovely week. And these are posted waits! Actual waits are only about two-thirds of what is posted.

Parks with the Highest and Lowest Average Wait

These parks likely won’t change week-to-week unless something ridiculous happens, but these data points will give us a high-level view of how wait times are trending from week to week.

• Highest: Animal Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 32.5 minutes (was 36 minutes last week)
• Lowest: Magic Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 19 minutes (was 22 minutes last week)

Animal Kingdom had an average posted wait of 36 minutes for four weeks straight, and it’s finally dropped. And every other park at WDW had average posted waits under 30 minutes this week! That’s something that we typically only see happen in September! Can’t emphasize enough the weirdness of all of this. MK under 20 and Hollywood Studios under 30 is super super super rare, other than in early Halloween party season.

Most Inflated Posted Wait Times

We all know that Disney inflates their posted wait times on purpose. They have many reasons for doing this. Some are totally understandable, and some are potentially more problematic. We can figure out how much posted wait times are being inflated by comparing submitted actual wait times from the Lines App and the posted wait time when the person timing their wait entered the line.

Over the past week, actual wait times in the Lines App averaged 69% of what was posted. Overall, if the posted wait time at a popular attraction was 60 minutes, you could’ve expected to wait less than 42 minutes instead.

But the worst offender for the past week was Na’vi River Journey. At this one attraction, submitted actual wait times were only 43% of posted wait times in the past week. That means that if the attraction had a 45 minute posted wait, you probably would have actually only waited 19 minutes instead. Less than half of what was posted. Remember to always check the Lines app for predicted actual waits instead of making decisions based on what is posted.

This Week’s Wait Time Rock Star

Between June 10th and 16th, we had almost 1,100 timed actual waits submitted through the Lines app. The one person who recorded the most actual waits during that time was lmille40, with 45 overall timed waits – 24 standby waits and 21 Lightning Lane waits. Thanks for all of that timing, lmille40! It unfortunately does not compete with the the 97 timed waits in a single week from our current timing champion, preef.

Looking Ahead: June 17 – 22

I write this article on Tuesday evenings so that you all have the very freshest of data on Wednesdays. That means the 17th will already be in the past by the time you’ve read this, so we’re back to the future!

Let’s be clear. Summer is not going to get crowded. Could things head back to “moderate” range instead of “low” crowds? Sure. Maybe. But they’re not going to get crazy, at least until mid July. With Starlight debuting on July 20 and Test Track reopening on July 22, Disney is clearly trying to capitalize on late summer trips. Until then, enjoy the quiet parks.

If you are taking advantage of this slow summer, be prepared for the weather. Please! Temperatures are high and you need to stay hydrated and plan plenty of indoor time throughout your day. Or take a break in the afternoon for some pool time – with low waits, you’ll have time in your day to step away from the parks and still get lots of attractions done.

Were you in the parks this past week? Or are you headed to Orlando soon? Let me know in the comments below!