Disney World Crowd Calendar Update – Up To July 1

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Our crowd level predictions for Disney World parks have been a little high lately. As Disney attractions start returning to normal (Pre-COVID) operations and as the attendance limitations begin to lift, the accuracy of our predictions comes down to timing. Given the recent announcements about fireworks starting up again, it appears that these higher levels we predicted may not arrive until next month.

So, we are pushing a small update to Magic Kingdom, Disney Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom between now and July 1. These three parks have not hit a crowd level above a ‘2’ in the past several days and we think that will continue through the end of the month. Epcot looks ok as is.

 

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

6 thoughts on “Disney World Crowd Calendar Update – Up To July 1

  • June 21, 2021 at 9:41 pm
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    Will the crowd calendars for Disneyland be updated soon as well? I made a touring plan for July and noticed several returned attractions aren’t yet back.

    Reply
  • June 22, 2021 at 10:06 am
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    Are you sure about this change? I made a touring plan for today just as a mock vacation day and the times that you list for right now seem way way off from what Disney is posting. My touring plan said I could get on almost any ride with about a 3 minute wait. Right now at 10:00 am Disney is posting 45 for HM, 55 for Jungle Cruise, 35 for Splash, 30 for Thunder, 40 for Peter Pan, 70 for SDMT, 40 for Space. And it is like this in every open park! 75 for FOP, 45 for Navi River, 45 for Safari, 110 for Slinky!, 55 for Alien Swirling Saucers, 65 for Millennium Falcon, 50 for Toy Story Mania, 50 for Tower, 55 for RR.

    What is going on? Your prediction of low wait times and low crowds is not right! You listed Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom as a 2 out of 10 on the crowd calendar for today!

    Reply
  • June 22, 2021 at 10:17 am
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    Thanks for the feedback Donald, you raise a good point. Check out the wait time curve for Big Thunder Mountain Railroad yesterday. https://touringplans.com/blog/fireworks-returning-to-walt-disney-world-theme-parks/

    Wait times in the morning (before 11:00 a.m.) were in the 20 – 35 range but after that they stayed very low. Furthermore, if you look at the Actual times that people are waiting line, it is much less than what Disney is posting.

    The Crowd Calendar is a representation of the average wait times between 11:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. for key attractions. Clearly, our recent predictions for the crowd level have been too high.

    However, our wait time curves are actually doing well, especially in the morning.

    Reply
  • June 22, 2021 at 10:45 am
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    Thanks for the quick reply. I understand that Disney is overestimating wait times but it still doesn’t seem right when almost every somewhat popular ride is posting as high as mentioned. I have a touring plan for June 26th at MK. It has a wait time of 4 minutes for Thunder at 8:42 and 3 minutes for Splash at 8:55. It seems like the posted wait times are off by an order of magnitude. Do you think I can actually expect to basically walk on Splash an hour after MK opens? Thanks for the help.

    Reply
    • June 22, 2021 at 10:57 am
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      Surprisingly yes. We didn’t believe it either, so we verified. It is happening more often than not.

      Reply
  • June 22, 2021 at 9:02 pm
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    Thanks for all the great work as always! What do u think the effect of the park pass system will be in the future? Do you think we will see less 10s and 9s?

    Reply

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