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Disneyland Crowd Calendar Update for August 2019

Fred Hazelton 2 Comments
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The final month have summer has begun and it is time for a Disneyland Crowd Calendar update.

We have two months of wait time observations since the opening of Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge and the picture is clear. The new land is popular but the rest of the resort is quiet. That means there isn’t much to update for Disneyland and Disney California Adventure.

September

Be aware that summer blockout dates for many annual passholders end on September 3. We expect a lot of these guests will flood Disneyland Park to experience Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge for the first time. Normally the week after Labor Day is very quiet but this year we are predicting ‘6’s and ‘7’s for Disneyland. This may be an overestimate if those passholders check out the new land then leave the park (as many people have done since it opened).

October

Not a lot will change in October as a result of this update. Guests should still watch out for large crowds on dates around Columbus Day and on weekends in the second half of the month.

November

Days around Veterans Day on November 11 continue to be more popular in recent years. Since it falls on a Monday this year the effect will be a little greater. This update puts Disneyland Park at a level ‘9’ between Saturday, November 9 and Monday, November 11. Thanksgiving is late this year, on November 28. We expect the usual high crowd levels that week.

December

No major changes to report for December. If you can avoid weekends the crowd levels are fairly low in December as long as your trip is over by the time the Christmas rush arrives. This year we predict that rush to begin on December 21.

January 2020 and beyond

Galaxy’s Edge second attraction, Rise of the Resistance opens at Disneyland Park on January 17, 2020. A lot of the crowd level predictions for dates after that will depend on what we observe once it opens. The attraction (like all new attractions) is not part of the crowd calendar currently. We have to collect about a year’s worth of wait time data before we can include it. That means the crowd level index indicates the expected crowd level at the rest of the park, not at the new attraction. Rise of the Resistance will be very popular and we expect Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge to be very busy when it opens.

Remember that the Crowd Calendar is subject to change at any time. Updates usually come monthly. If you are using the calendar to plan your Disneyland Resort trip we strongly suggest that you use a touring plan and optimize it several times while in the park. That is, by far, your bets way to beat the crowds.

 

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

2 thoughts on “Disneyland Crowd Calendar Update for August 2019”

  • Fred,

    Any plans to do any more DLR crowd calendar updates? The dates I’m hoping to go in May you have as 9s but the same week has been 5s and 6s in past years and I’m curious to see what a more up to date crack at the data will do.

    Reply

  • We just got back from a quick 1 day trip on 10 Aug to DLR. We were going to avoid the entire summer period b/c of the earlier predictions that the parks would be overrun b/c everyone wanting to see SWGE. But after alot of reports that crowds weren’t so high and after seeing the constant TouringPlans prediction for DL 4 of 10 and DCA 5 out of 10 for 10 Aug, we decided to do a one day trip.

    boy….were we surprised by crowd levels. I thought I was going crazy and must have mis-read the TouringPlans calendar. We went straight to SWGE at rope drop and crowds there were light but picked up quickly. After doing the *only* ride and going to Oga’s, my son and I wanted to see the rest of DLR so exited SWGE about 11am. I started trying to make FPs reservations for the “big” rides and found that nothing was available until 5pm or so (warning sign 1). And RSR was already out of FPs for the day (warning sign 2). It became clear that the crowd calendar was off, but not until the we had to bail out of DL for DCA did I realize by how much the calendar was off. And once at DCA I realized the crowds there were off by a long shot as well. We were only able to get FP for Incredicoaster and Guardians but very late in the day/evening. After returning to DL after dark, only later Haunted Mansion was available as all other FPs were exhausted.

    We always do our single day trips on weekends that TouringPlans predicts “low-ish” crowds and we knew going in and concentrating on SWGE that we wouldn’t be able to hit as many rides as normal. But the predictions were way off.

    Viewing the crowd calendar for the 10th today (post trip) it shows that “What we saw” was 10 out of 10 for both parks, which is what I felt like I observed. It was a bit frustrating, but we adjusted and had a great time as always. We just didn’t get to do many rides….actually not many rides at all this trip. Not complaining about your stastistics…but we are just wondering what threw the predictions so far off?

    thanks for the great website and podcasts,

    Reply

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