Crowd BlogWalt Disney World (FL)

Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar Update For May 2024

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Over the past 30 days, crowd levels at Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom have been slightly lower than historical averages. Therefore, we are revising our crowd level predictions for these two Walt Disney World parks.

Animal Kingdom, in particular, has been consistently underperforming our expectations by almost two points during this period. The park has seen lower than predicted crowds on 29 of the last 30 days, indicating a clear downward trend in wait times that we anticipate will continue into the summer months.

However, most of the updates in this revision pertain solely to these two parks, with only a one-point reduction on most days. Crowd levels at EPCOT and Disney Hollywood Studios are expected to remain consistent with our previous predictions.

We anticipate that the opening of the new Tiana attraction at Magic Kingdom may require further adjustments to our predictions. Until then, we will continue to monitor wait time trends and update our forecasts as necessary.

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

9 thoughts on “Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar Update For May 2024

  • I’m confused about why the expectations for MK crowds would go up at the end of May and early June if historical crowd levels have been lower than expected. It’s not much of a jump so not too worried about it but since the blog mostly discusses decreases due to lower crowds, and that is relatively soon, I would have expected either no change or a decrease.

  • That’s difficult to know Valarie, what Disney will do with its schedule is a mystery. Usually these things are solidified about three months.

  • Please can you advise why Animal Kingdoms predicted crowd level has increased for the 2nd of November, when the blog post advises they are being amended downwards?

    • That’s the first official day of Jersey Week, so there would be an uptick in crowds. Don’t overthink one-point changes, though.

    • Andy’s hypothesis is a good one. It is also true that a jump of one point isn’t a significant increase. However, it is also important to note there are a lot of unknowns in how our modelling uses the patterns it observes.

      It is possible for some crowd level estimates to increase even when the general trend is downward. The description in the post was for the general trend and its impact on dates in the near future. Apologies that I didn’t specifically address the increase you noticed. I don’t think it will have a significant impact on your touring though. Also, November is a long time from now, it is also possible that further adjustments to those dates will occur.

  • Do you think they will continue extended hours at Magic Kingdom on Wednesday September 25th or do you think they’ll move them to the Studios, and if so which night?

    • Why wouldn’t they? Wednesday night deluxe hours at Magic Kingdom happened all thru party season last year, no reason to expect that they *wouldn’t* this year. (And if they don’t, nobody would know that yet, as we’re months from seeing posted park hours for September).

      • They did not. They moved them to the studios end of September last year. I am just looking for an educated opinion as this greatly effects my stay and changing that 70 days out when the times get released is going be really tough.

      • Yes, you’re right. Sorry for my wrongness.

        We won’t know what they’re planning this this fall for another couple months.

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