Making the Best Lightning Lane Advance Picks at Disney World

Back in the summer of 2024, Lightning Lane Multi-Pass made its debut, replacing Genie+. At that time, we used a bunch of historical data to model out when you might expect attractions to sell out based on FastPass+ and Genie+ data, and our initial recommendations about which attractions to book based on predicted time savings and predicted sell-out times.

But now we’re in a whole new year, and there is plenty of actual data to help us make better recommendations and help you make better decisions. So let’s look at actual sell-out times, actual time savings, and where you might be able to find same-day “refills”. All of this can help inform which Lightning Lanes you choose in advance. This article assumes you’re already familiar with how Lightning Lane Multi Pass works. If not, head over to How to Use Lightning Lane Multi Pass at Disney World and come back here when you’re done.

Behind the Math

What should factor into your strategy for advance selections with LLMP? Three things:

1. Availability – When are advance selections likely to “sell out”?
2. Refills – Combined with the above, if something sells out, are you likely to be able to scoop up a day-of reservation, or are you out of luck?
3. Time Savings – How much time will you save by using the Lightning Lane instead of standby?

We’ll work through each of these sections separately to give you all of the data. Each of the sets of data reflects the past 6 months, as of early February 2025. So it includes plenty of examples of low, medium, and high-crowd days.

If you want to skip all of the data, go straight to the end of this article, where I’ve got a handy-dandy table that summarizes everything in one place!

Lightning Lane Multi Pass Availability

The tables below show the average sell-out times for each Tier One and Tier Two attraction at each park. I define a sell-out time as the time when all return times for the attraction are initially gone, regardless of any refills throughout the rest of the day. I split out the sell-out times by low-crowd days (crowd levels 1-4), medium-crowd days (crowd levels 4-7), and high-crowd days (crowd levels 8-10).

Magic Kingdom

On low and medium-crowd days, only Tiana’s Bayou Adventure regularly sells out before the park opens. But on high-crowd days, availability is significantly worse. On those days, four different attractions sell out before the park opens, and another four sell out by noon.

EPCOT

Low-crowd days are pretty easy to navigate at EPCOT, other than the one-two punch at Frozen and Remy’s. But on high-crowd days, things really break down with three attractions all selling out multiple days early.

Hollywood Studios

The problem at Hollywood Studios is that many Tier Two options are shows, where you will save very little (if any) time by using Lightning Lane Multi Pass. Of the 8 attractions that offer LLMP, one sells out before park open even on low-crowd days. And on medium-crowd days, 3 attractions sell out before the park opens. On high-crowd days, everything worthwhile is sold out by 2:30 pm. and almost every attraction is sold out before noon.

Animal Kingdom

Only 5 attractions at Animal Kingdom offer Lightning Lane Multi Pass. All other options are shows. Thankfully, on low and medium-crowd days, it’s easy to get reservations at every attraction. But on high-crowd days, three out of those five attractions are sold out by noon.

Refills

As you look through the tables above, one thing becomes very clear – return time availability throughout the day stinks when compared to Genie+. That makes sense. Instead of everyone booking throughout the day, all of those same people are booking three attractions in advance, which uses up a big portion of availability.

The good news? Even if attractions totally sell out, you can grab return times during “refills” – regular, reliable drops of additional availability throughout the day.

Data in this section comes via thrill-data.com, where you can search any attraction and see a heat map of return times. Any vertical lines in these charts represent reliable refills. Any times cited below were accurate as of early February 2025, but may change due to Disney changing its operations or strategy. To look up and confirm refill times yourself, visit Thrill-Data and look up the attraction you’re interested in.

Magic Kingdom

Tiana’s Bayou Adventure has refills at 45 minutes past the hour, every hour, if it’s running smoothly. This starts at 9:45 am.

No other LLMP attractions have identifiable, reliable refills.

EPCOT

If Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure is running smoothly and crowds are low, it may have a refill at 1:45 pm. But this doesn’t happen every day.

No other LLMP attractions have identifiable, reliable refills.

Hollywood Studios

Millennium Falcon typically has twice-daily refills at 10:45 a.m. and 3:45 p.m.

Tower of Terror and Toy Story Mania have twice-daily refills at 1:15 p.m. and 3:45 p.m.

Slinky Dog Dash may have a refill at 3:45 p.m., but typically only on lower-crowd days that haven’t had any operational issues.

No other LLMP attractions have identifiable, reliable refills.

Animal Kingdom

Expedition Everest typically has twice-daily refills at 8:45 a.m. and 12:45 p.m.

Kali River Rapids typically has a daily refill at 1:45 p.m.

On low crowd days, Na’vi River Journey may have a refill at 1:45 p.m.

No other LLMP attractions have identifiable, reliable refills.

Lightning Lane Multi Pass Time Savings

Time savings compared to standby vary wildly by not only crowd level, but also time of day. So for this article’s purposes, I’m going to present overall average time savings per attraction. These savings will be higher during peak hours (11 am to 5 pm) and lower in the early morning and evening. They’ll be higher on high-crowd days and lower on low-crowd days.

But what’s important here is how the time savings relate to one another, not the exact numbers. Because no matter how you tweak time of day or crowd level, the time savings relative to other attractions stays roughly the same. Attractions with the highest time savings will always have the highest time savings.

Magic Kingdom

EPCOT

Hollywood Studios

Animal Kingdom

Lightning Lane Multi Pass Advance Selection Data Summary

So what does this mean for your advance selections? You’ll want to prioritize attractions with good time savings, poor availability, and that don’t have reliable refills. And of course, they also need to be things you want to experience.

Magic Kingdom

EPCOT

Hollywood Studios

Animal Kingdom

What Does This Mean For You?

1. Even by reading through this data, you’re way ahead of most people who purchase Lightning Lane Multi Pass and make advance selections on a whim.
2. Look for reservations that allow you to save time, and that get you access to attractions that sell out early and don’t have reliable refills.
3. In addition to the above, remember that overall LLMP time savings throughout the day benefit from you getting and using as many reservations as possible. That means using at least one reservation early in the day so that you can “unlock” more reservations.

Do you have any questions about LLMP advance selections? Or tips for other visitors? Let us know below!