Disney World Crowd Report – May 11 to 17, 2014

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Only three of our predictions last week missed by more than one index level. That’s 91% within one on our scale, a success rate above our goal of 90%. Crowds were moderate all week with only a few exceptions. We saw a crowd level ‘7’ only three times and all on the weekend. Star Wars Weekends began at The Studios on Friday and crowds were significant on both Friday and Saturday but wait times at the attractions remained moderate.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, May 11,2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
5

Sunday’s crowds turned out to be almost exactly as we expected with only our prediction at Animal Kingdom proving to be one level higher than predicted. Test Track at Epcot only averaged 50 minutes between 10:00am and 5:00pm, which represents a ‘3’ on our scale.

Epcot
4
4
Hollywood Studios
2
2
Animal Kingdom
5
6

Monday, May 12, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
5

Magic Kingdom, Epcot and Animal Kingdom had wait times slightly higher than expected on Monday but not enough to push the crowd level more than one level higher than predicted. Disney Hollywood Studios witnessed crowds among the lowest of the year. Toy Story Mania, with an average posted time of 65 minutes, was the only Studios attraction that didn’t stay at a level ‘1’ on Sunday. Tower of Terror averaged 19 minutes.

Epcot
2
3
Hollywood Studios
2
1
Animal Kingdom
4
5

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
5

Tuesday was a resort-wide ‘3’ as predicted including the ‘5’ at Magic Kingdom. Our attraction level predictions did very well with no estimates missing by more than a few minutes.

Epcot
3
2
Hollywood Studios
1
2
Animal Kingdom
3
3

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
3
4

Wednesday brought the week’s first surprise with Epcot reaching a level ‘5’ thanks to higher than expected wait times at Soarin’ (64 minutes, we predicted 58) Spaceship Earth (21 minutes, we predicted 16) and Test Track (67 minutes, we predicted 54). The Studios during the week continues to be a great choice most days as many guests will reserve their visit until the weekend to experience the Star Wars special events. If Star Wars Weekends aren’t you’re thing, any weekday is a good choice.

Epcot
2
5
Hollywood Studios
1
1
Animal Kingdom
4
3

Thursday, May 15, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
3
4

Another resort-wide ‘3’ on Thursday and another day of low wait times at The Studios. Magic Kingdom and Epcot had the largest crowds but they only reached a level ‘4’ while wait times at Animal Kingdom were low.

Epcot
2
4
Hollywood Studios
2
1
Animal Kingdom
5
3

Friday, May 16, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

Friday was the first day of the week where we saw crowds reach above average. Resort-wide we observed a level ‘6’ including ‘6’s at both Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom. Although Star Wars fans did flock to the Studios to partake in the first Star Wars Weekend events of 2014, wait times actually ended up lower than predicted. Star Wars Weekends should be avoided unless you are there for the festivities however you can tour the park effectively with a good touring plan if you do choose to go.

Epcot
4
5
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
5
6

Saturday, May 17, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

Star Wars Weekends continued on Saturday with large crowds but moderate wait times at Disney Hollywood Studios. We saw crowd level ‘7’s at Animal Kingdom and Epcot. Epcot’s crowds were a little elevated thanks to local guests taking advantage of the final weekend of the Flower and Garden Festival.

Epcot
5
7
Hollywood Studios
6
5
Animal Kingdom
6
7
What to Expect This Week
May 18 to May 24, 2014
The Crowd Report

As Epcot’s Flower and Garden Festival concludes and Disney Hollywood Studios’ Star Wars Weekends begin we prepare for moderate crowds to build higher as we approach Memorial Day. Magic Kingdom’s 24-hour Rock Your Disney Side event on Friday (and Saturday morning) may bring huge crowds to the Magic Kingdom although we don’t expect wait times to be prohibitive until the late evening.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

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