Disney World Crowd Report – June 29 to July 5, 2014
Last week, with the exception of July 4th at Magic Kingdom, crowds were lower than history would suggest during the first week of July, including a remarkably uncrowded Independence Day at Disney Hollywood Studios. Although Magic Kingdom and Epcot are showing wait times in line with historical averages, The Studios and Animal Kingdom are not. It may be time to discuss the possibility that Universal’s Harry Potter expansion is drawing guests away from the Disney parks. It may be that guests are visiting Magic Kingdom and Epcot at the same historical frequency but their park choices for further days are begin split between Disney and Universal at a more level ratio than usual. This doesn’t seem to be the case however because wait times are down at Universal parks as well, with the exception of the Wizarding World of Harry Potter. So, it appears that the drop in crowds is more likely due to an overall reduction in attendance across Central Florida parks.
Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the Disney World Crowd Report:
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom |
6
|
6
|
Low crowds at the three newer parks started off the week again on Sunday. Magic Kingdom, which hosted Extra Magic Hour morning, was the only park with an above average crowd. Epcot’s attractions hit both extremes with a ’10’ at Spaceship Earth (24 minutes) and a ‘1’ for Mission: Space (Green) (5 minutes). |
| Epcot |
6
|
4
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
6
|
3
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
5
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
7
|
7
|
The last day of June brought a near repeat of the 29th with Magic Kingdom hitting the mark and the other three parks falling short of our predictions. Toy Story Mania averaged 73 minutes (‘4’ out of ’10’), Mission: Space (Orange) 15 minutes (‘1’ out of ’10’) and Expedition Everest 35 minutes (‘5’ out of ’10’). |
| Epcot |
6
|
4
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
7
|
4
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
8
|
6
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
7
|
6
|
Tuesday’s predictions did much better with only The Studios missing by more than one level. Epcot’s Extra Magic Hour morning pushed the park level to one higher than predicted, the first time of the week where our prediction was low. |
| Epcot |
6
|
7
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
6
|
4
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
7
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
7
|
5
|
July 2nd and 3rd are usually the days where we begin to see Independence Day crowds surge to the parks. However Wednesday’s crowds did not quite reach the levels that one would expect. The Magic Kingdom had the lowest crowd, with Space Mountain and Peter Pan’s Flight averaging only 50 minutes. |
| Epcot |
7
|
6
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
9
|
7
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
9
|
8
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
8
|
6
|
Again on Thursday, no park hit higher than a level ‘6’, the lowest July 3rd crowd in 5 years. Those who took our advice and visited the Magic Kingdom on Thursday saw the same Fourth of July Fireworks on a day that reached a level ‘6’ rather July 4th itself when crowds reached a level ’10’. |
| Epcot |
7
|
5
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
8
|
6
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
9
|
6
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
10
|
10
|
The resort-wide ‘6’ on this year’s Independence Day was the lowest since 2010 although the Magic Kingdom did hit a level ’10’ as expected. Shockingly, crowds at The Studios were among the lowest of the year, especially for a holiday. Toy Story Mania averaged 62 minutes while Great Movie Ride averaged only 8 minutes. If you visited the Magic Kingdom on July 3rd and The Studios on July 4th you saw some spectacular fireworks presentations with some the lowest holiday crowds we’ve ever recorded. |
| Epcot |
9
|
9
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
8
|
2
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
6
|
3
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
6
|
4
|
Saturday’s crowds returned to normal except for Animal Kingdom which saw very low wait times including a 24 minute average at Expedition Everest and an 11 minute average at Kilimanjaro Safaris. If we learn one thing from this year’s July 4th holiday it would be to schedule yourself for Magic Kingdom on July 3rd, The Studios for July 4th and Animal Kingdom for July 5th. Perhaps we can all remember that for next year. |
| Epcot |
6
|
5
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
6
|
6
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
3
|
|
| July 6 to 12, 2014 |
|---|
Our crowd predictions continue to be skewing higher than what we observe but we continue to expect summer crowds to remain steadily above average for the rest of July. With a bit of planning however, it appears that this summer may be a great time to visit with lower than expect crowds if July 4th crowds are an indication of what is to come.
To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.
To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.
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Or WORSE than Fourth of July!!!
So now, according to YOUR OWN Crowd Calendar, next April and May are going to have similar crowds to THE FOURTH OF JULY!!!???!!!
The World Cup is an interesting idea, though that doesn’t explain the lower crowds in late May.
Could it be that Disney’s lack of new attractions at DHS and DAK in particular is finally catching up to them? I’m not trying to be negative, but it’s possible that people just don’t think they’re a good value and are choosing to do multiple days at the others.
Another option is that we’re still feeling the impact of a weaker economy. Despite some gains, people just aren’t planning as many family trips. That would explain the drops across Florida.
Potentially driving low 4th July crowds at the Studios could be the Frozen events starting on the 5th, resulting in a lot of families postponing their visit to the studios to the Saturday and Sunday, which were a lot busier.
As a mother of a Frozen fan, I assumed the same thing.
Something to think about is whether everyone who didn’t attend the parks in the past month simply postponed their vacations to the second half of the summer. We might end up paying for these light crowds in a big way in the second half of July and into August, although Diagon Alley should siphon off some of it.
+1 on this being primarily world cup driven. We were in Epcot on the fourth, and it seemed like half the park was waiting to get into the Odyssey to watch the game. I run my own website as well and have noticed a dip in traffic correlating with the World Cup that didn’t exist last year. I think it’s having a pretty big negative short-term impact on the world economy that most people don’t recognize.
I think attendance is down because of the world cup. the groups are staying home to see this in their country.
Now that makes sense. Especially if it’s Brazilian tour groups making a lot of the difference. And the World Cup was last in 2010.
Ok, so if attendance is down across all Orlando theme parks, what’s your best guess as to why? Predicting an 8 and getting a 2 speaks to a massive shift somewhere, yes?