Crowd Calendar Update: Fall 2025 Review and the Changes Coming to Every Park

It’s time for another Crowd Calendar Update. This update for November 2025 will have us looking ahead month by month. We’ll have both a little backward-looking review, and some forward-looking answers to “what changed for my trip and why?”

TL;DR

• We’ve pushed an update that lightly trims many park-day levels (most by just one level) where recent patterns support it.
• Month-by-month guidance below explains what changed and why—so you can quickly interpret differences on your travel dates.
• At Universal Orlando, we’ve added a dedicated note on the Epic Universe effect—new capacity and guest redistribution can shift pressure across the resort.

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Quick Context: What We’ve Seen Since Late Summer

Since early August, crowd patterns have followed a consistent theme: lighter than predicted and far more balanced than the intense spring and early-summer months. As Becky’s October 29 Disney Data Dump highlighted, Walt Disney World crowds ran about two full levels lower than forecasts through much of October, and every miss was on the high side—a clear sign that our models were reading a touch too hot. Her “pause button” week of all-green days captured that perfectly.

This easing trend showed up across nearly every property, with a few possible explanations:

• Weather and heat: Persistent late-summer heat in Florida and California shortened park days for many guests, trimming peak-hour waits and flattening overall attendance.
• Event clustering: Halloween parties at Disney World, after-hours events, and Halloween Horror Nights at Universal spread crowds across partial operating days, creating those dramatic “low-wait” dips on non-event evenings that Becky noted in her report.
• Operational downtime: Headliner refurbishments like Tiana’s Bayou Adventure testing windows and longer maintenance at Spaceship Earth reduced throughput, cooling the posted-wait metrics we use for calibration.
• Travel normalization: Airfare, weather disruptions, and the return of traditional school calendars all nudged late-summer demand back toward pre-2020 norms.

In short, the fall was calmer than forecast—not empty, but better balanced. Becky graded that forecasting stretch a solid C+, and we agree: the data proved our bias was high, not erratic. This November update is the natural correction—bringing the models into alignment with the real, on-the-ground experience guests have been reporting since Labor Day.

So, if your trip dates just dropped a crowd level, that’s not a bug—it’s the system catching up to reality. With that context in mind, here’s what changes going forward and why.

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What Changed in the Calendar — Month by Month

November 2025

• Weekdays: Modest one-level trims on many shoulder weekdays where wait profiles have been consistently softer.
• Event nights and variable hours: Targeted adjustments keep these nights a notch higher than adjacent days, but not as elevated as earlier forecasts implied.
• Thanksgiving corridor: Peak days remain high, with surrounding days tuned so you’ll notice a clearer step-up into the holiday spike.

December 2025

• Early December: Calibrated down a touch on several non-event weekdays—still a great window for low-to-moderate waits before the holiday climb.
• Mid- to late-December: The holiday rise is intact; we’ve focused on shape—steeper lead-in to Christmas week, plus realistic plateaus between major peak days.
• New Year’s Eve week: No surprises—still among the busiest days of the year, with neighboring days reflecting more precise day-to-day gradients.

January–February 2026

• Post-holiday cooldown: Quiet stretches are reinforced with small downward nudges where warranted. You’ll notice a clearer distinction between low-crowd weekdays and busier long-weekend patterns.
• Holiday & race weekends: Calibrations better isolate these bumps so they stand out from otherwise calmer weeks.
• Weather wiggles: As always, winter fronts can help or hinder; our updated baselines leave room for those day-of swings without overshooting the mark.

March–April 2026 (Spring Break Season)

• Spring build: The climb toward spring break is preserved, with trims focused on days that historically sit just below the top peaks.
• Easter adjacency: Expect more realistic “shoulder” days—busy, but not uniformly maxed—so you can plan rope-drop and mid-day breaks with better granularity.

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Spotlight: Universal Orlando & the Epic Universe Effect

Epic Universe brings two big dynamics to Universal Orlando:

1. New capacity at the resort level that can reduce pressure on some dates at Universal Studios Florida (USF) and Islands of Adventure (IOA).
2. New demand as guests plan trips specifically to experience Epic Universe, which can lift overall attendance and shift “which park is hottest today?”

Our latest forecasts account for both. Practically, that means:

• Redistribution: Select USF/IOA dates dip a level where Epic’s draw and capacity help, but not uniformly—weekends, event days, and premier attractions still push up.
• Volatility near milestones: Opening phases and early “must-see” windows can create short-run spikes; we explicitly allow more variability around those periods.
• Trip behavior changes: Some guests will add days to include Epic, spreading demand across the week; others will compress into high-demand windows. Our day-level shape reflects those trade-offs.

Bottom line for Universal guests: If your USF/IOA dates dropped a level, that’s the new-capacity effect peeking through. If they held or rose, you’re likely sitting on an event window, weekend clustering, or a period where new demand outweighs the relief.

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Why Your Day Might Have Shifted

• Smoother shoulders: Shoulder weekdays were running easier—many moved down one level to match observed patterns and schedule realities.
• Holiday shaping: Peaks remain peaks, but neighboring days were tuned so the calendar reads more like a staircase than a plateau.
• Attraction & operations: Sustained downtime or extended hours can nudge a day up or down. Where the data showed consistency, we leaned into it.
• Resort dynamics (Universal): Epic Universe capacity vs. new demand produces nuanced park-by-park changes; that’s intentional.

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What This Means for Your Plans

• Re-run your Touring Plan: A one-level change can alter the ideal first 90 minutes and lunch timing—easy gains if you optimize now.
• Keep event nights in mind: They remain outliers; use our calendar to spot “early close” or “party night” dynamics.
• Watch weekends vs. weekdays: This update increases the contrast so it’s easier to choose the calmer side of your travel window.

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Have Questions About a Specific Date?

Drop a comment with your park and date range. We’ll point to the drivers (events, schedule, Epic Universe dynamics, or recent wait-time shapes) so you can see exactly why your day moved—and how to make the most of it.