Disney Data Dump July 10 2024
Welcome back, people of Disney Data. Disney data-ers? Disney Data-ians? Fans of Disney Data? What do we call ourselves around here? After many tenacious, repeated requests – the weekly Disney Data Dump is making its long-awaited return. I have to apologize, because I didn’t expect when we last posted in December that we would be taking a 6+ month break. But between a full-time job, blogging here, writing the Unofficial Guide, and a little think like raising two humans … it turns out that devoting a couple of hours to writing this particular piece every Tuesday to post every Wednesday was all a bit much. But your voices have been heard and I’ll be doing my best. I just ask for a little understanding if I miss a week or two when life gets busy 🙂
Enough of the fluffy life stuff – let’s get to the numbers!
Observed Crowd Levels July 2 – 8
Now if this one graph doesn’t emphasize the fact that summer is the new off-season, I don’t know what will. Last July, crowds were up in the yellow range at least. And even those levels made a few of us come up with crazy hypotheses about the Eras Tour taking budget away from Disney family vacations. Now we’re seeing crowd levels in early July that look like they’d be more at home in September. I’m personally very excited to see what September is going to look like, given these numbers.
Keep in mind, these crowd levels span a holiday week/weekend, and the recent opening of a highly anticipated attraction that sells out quickly every day. If those two things aren’t driving crowds, I’m not sure what will. Drops in prices and in high temperatures, probably.
Lots of interesting things to talk about here! Magic Kingdom is practically empty. Regularly. Reliably. Usually crowd level 1s and 2s at the Magic Kingdom only happen on party days during the early party season. Equally as surprising is that EPCOT was the most crowded park on two different days. Unfortunately, with the closure of Test Track, and the sometimes unreliable nature of Frozen Ever After and Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, wait times can spike terribly when anything in the park has significant downtime.
Performance of Crowd Level Predictions
Each week, I plan on giving you a very transparent look into how the TouringPlans crowd level predictions performed. Each day at each park is one data point, so we have 28 different crowd level predictions to evaluate each week. Any time a prediction is within one or two crowd levels, things won’t really “feel” much different than what was predicted. Being off by 3 or more crowd levels is where you might feel that difference in wait times throughout the day.
In the past week, Touring Plans predictions were either spot-on or within 1 crowd level just 18% of the time. I know we’ve had quite a break from this blog, but as a reminder, that is much smaller than normal. 46% of the time Touring Plans predictions were within 2 crowd levels, and that means we achieve a measly F for our predictions the past week. Even more important than this inaccuracy is that it was decidedly skewed in one direction – all misses were over-estimates. Every crowd level was lower than predicted. All of the biggest misses were at EPCOT, which was over-predicted by 5 and 6 crowd levels on different days. But throughout the week, Magic Kingdom was the most “off” – every day was 3 or more crowd levels over-predicted in the past week.
Attraction Downtime July 2 – 8
If we average all of the capacity lost due to unexpected downtime over the past week, it comes out to 3.9% of attractions unexpectedly being down. That’s a rather good number for the middle of summer, mostly thanks to less rain than usual in the past week. EPCOT is unfortunately the park with the most capacity lost throughout the week, averaging out to 4.4%. I expect this to continue to be a problem until Test Track comes back online many months from now – there’s just not enough overall capacity at that park without it.
The worst day for attraction downtime in the past week was on July 8th. On that day, 6% of all capacity at WDW was lost due to unexpected downtime. And the worst park-day was at EPCOT on on July 8th too. On that park day, 10% of the capacity was lost at the park due to unexpected downtime. EPCOT was open for 12 hours on the 8th, so 10% downtime is the equivalent of the whole park being down for 72 minutes.
Attraction Downtime Worst Offenders
The worst offender of the past week was – oddly – Living with the Land, which was unexpectedly down for almost 16% of the past week. A bad week for greenhouse and boat ride fans! The worst day for Living with the Land was easily July 8th, when the ride was down for 78% of the day. It was otherwise rather reliable during the week, other than experiencing 29% downtime on the 6th.
Rope Drop Downtime
Here are this week’s problematic offenders, with the percentage of downtime during the first hour of the day in parentheses:
- Magic Kingdom: Space Mountain (20%), Winnie the Pooh (19%), it’s a small world (17%), Haunted Mansion (16%), Mad Tea Party (14%), TTA PeopleMover (13%)
- EPCOT: Journey Into Imagination (21%), Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure (20%), Cosmic Rewind (15%), Living with the Land (13%)
- Hollywood Studios: Rock’n’Roller Coaster (34%), Runaway Railway (15%), Slinky Dog Dash (13%), Rise of the Resistance (13%)
- Animal Kingdom: TriceraTop Spin (13%)
Not a great rope drop week. Not at all. At Hollywood Studios, 4 big rope drop contenders all had significant downtime during the first hour of the day. Magic Kingdom also had more struggles than normal – but thankfully the only attraction with big problems that is also a good rope drop selection was Space Mountain.
Wait Times July 2 – 8
Attractions with the Highest Average Posted Wait at each park
- Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash, average posted wait of 65 minutes
- Animal Kingdom: Flight of Passage, average posted wait time of 84 minutes
- EPCOT: Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, average posted wait time of 55 minutes
- Magic Kingdom: Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, average posted wait time of 56 minutes
None of these winners are particularly surprising – although Flight of Passage having an average that’s 20 minutes higher than any of the others is certainly a stand-out. Still, these “high” posted wait times are something more similar to a normal September than a normal July.
Parks with the Highest and Lowest Average Wait
These parks likely won’t change week-to-week unless something ridiculous happens, but these data points will give us a high-level view of how wait times are trending from week to week.
- Highest: Hollywood Studios, average park-wide posted wait of 32 minutes
- Lowest: EPCOT, average park-wide posted wait of 22 minutes (just barely less than Magic Kingdom)
In high season (like Thanksgiving or Spring Break), that Hollywood Studios average is more like an hour. 32 minutes is almost un-heard of!
Most Inflated Posted Wait Times
We all know that Disney inflates their posted wait times on purpose. They have many reasons for doing this. Some are totally understandable, and some are potentially more problematic. We can figure out how much posted wait times are being inflated by comparing submitted actual wait times from the Lines App and the posted wait time when the person timing their wait entered the line.
Over the past week, actual wait times in the Lines App averaged 66% of what was posted. This is slightly above our historical average, which means wait times aren’t inflated quite as much as normal. If the posted wait time was 60 minutes, you could’ve expected to wait under 40 minutes instead.
But the worst offender for the past week is Living with the Land – which I think is a first-time winner of this category! And now I’ve officially mentioned that attraction more times in this one post than I have ever in the history of this article. At Living with the Land, submitted actual wait times were 37% of posted wait times in the past week. That means that if the attraction had a 20 minute posted wait, you probably would’ve waited just over 7 minutes instead. About a third of what was posted. Remember to always check the Lines app for predicted actual waits instead of believing what is posted.
Looking Ahead: July 9 – 15
This coming week doesn’t look particularly exciting. There is the normal slate of After Hours events, and regular park hours. The weather looks like it will stay hot, with the return of afternoon storms rolling through starting on the 11th. If you’re well-prepared to withstand a shower or two, you can enjoy the parks with (even) lower crowds and slightly cooler temps. Just be prepared with an indoor activity or two for while the worst of the rain is coming down. You’ll outlast many other guests who aren’t as well-prepared as you!
Special Extra Bonus
As a reward for faithful readers who have been awaiting the return of the Data Dump (and have read all the way through), and as a celebration of the upcoming release of the 2025 Unofficial Guide to Walt Disney World on August 13th, I’ve got a special giveaway! Leave a comment below for the chance to be rewarded with a copy of the 2025 Guide before it’s even available to the public. Get a bonus “entry” if your comment includes an idea for any future data-driven Disney blog post that you’d like to see in the future. I’ll draw a winner at 11 am on Friday, July 12th and ship you your very own copy this weekend! May the odds be ever in your favor.
Update 7/12: All entries were placed into the giant selector wheel of destiny, and Alana is the winner! Congratulations, and many thanks to everyone who participated. I loved reading all of your notes and I’m working on replying to all of them.
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“…Drops in prices…”
This.^^^ in my estimation.
I could be wrong. Would be interested in some TP theories. It’s demonstrably not weather. Florida has been hot since 1971 and that’s never stopped anyone from going to WDW before, come on now.
There’s a lot of politics going on, but I really believe it’s the prices.
Count me among the many who is really pleased to have the data dump back. As a math geek, I love this stuff. Best to you as you continue to raise your young family.
It is great to have you back, Becky! Thanks for providing us with the weekly numbers. I always enjoyed the recognition provided to the weekly wait time submission winner. I look forward to your next post.
Good call out James! Not to worry, that section will definitely be back starting next week. It just usually takes the longest because I almost always have to do some manual cleaning out of cheaters 😉 Shhh, don’t tell anyone.
Terrific article. I am another unapologetic data junkie.
Data driven request: would love to see TP with early magic hours / extended evening magic hours, with/without multi pass/single pass.
Also wondering if you plan to adjust projected crowd levels for august 2024 based upon these new data driven insights?
Much obliged!
Will follow up with the stats team re: calendar adjustments – I don’t know the answer 🙂
And I’m going to need a lot of volunteers for simultaneous testing!
So happy to see this data dump is back since we’re planning a trip later this year. Thanks! Also very interested to see what impact the new LL’s have on wait times. Your predictions will help me determine whether we purchase the multi option and for which parks.
After a few weeks of data come in, I’ll be updating the existing “Genie+ priority” posts to cover LLMP instead!
Love the data. Keep it coming. Can’t wait to see the analysis of the changes for the new LL.
I wonder if the Living with the Land bump in estimated vs actual wait times was because the Disney Algorithm for wait times bumps them up if an attraction has down time to accommodate for Genie + Lightning Lane returns for those who had scheduled a ride during down time.
It’s certainly possible. But then they definitely overestimated how many LL users there were going to be!
Hi & thanks for bringing Data Dump back to us.
I would love to see what outliers/ statistical anomalies crop up most frequently when surveying fans within age groupings— for instance, pre-teens who prefer live entertainment over thrill rides; “mature” guests who rope-drop Mad Tea Party; etc.
Keep up the great work!
Ha! This idea is so much fun. Outliers are definitely more difficult to pull than “the norm”, but it would be interesting to try.
Is the new DAS influencing LL wait times?
(yes). Ha. Don’t want to post any official numbers or anything, but after controlling for crowd levels etc etc etc, LL waits are down compared to before “the change”.
Happy to see these posts return, thanks Becky! My suggestion would be some insight into how the over and under predictions affect future predictions!
Will pass this along to the stats team guys for some insight!
Wow, great data dump, and a great giveaway!
A far as data ideas, is there any way to measure where crowds actually are during the day? If you’re among a crowd, your day could feel like an 8 when it’s actually a 3. Is there any way to translate wait time opportunities real time and break out of a crowd? And yes, wait times can be an iffy data point to hang a hat on. Are there any reliable metrics as to which rides or “lands” are busy or empty that can positively impact an individual’s touring plan and can help them recompute their day?
Many thanks for your work!
What a great idea for real-time recommendations! Having a touring plan and re-optimizing is certainly one way to address this because it’ll direct you away from the crowds, but looking at some trends across lands would be cool.
Thanks for the data info and contestant entry. We always use your calendar to pick specific parks on specific days for our trips and it hasn’t failed us yet!
I’d be interested if touring plans has measured confidence intervals in your wait time predictions or which rides have the highest variance. For example, if TP predicts BTMRR for 20 min actual with a 40 min posted, what are the odds that it will be a 40 min or higher wait? I’d imagine some rides are more predictable here, and some are more risky, and that this would probably fluctuate throughout the day
Now that’s some nerdy stats that I can appreciate. Making a note to look into exactly this!
I love these, glad they are back.
I don’t have a suggestion because I know you will be covering the new lightening lanes when they start up later this month.
Thrilled to see the return of the data dumps! Some data that I would be interested in seeing is a comparison of rope drop wait times.
Ooh haven’t done this on the blog recently. If you head over to my Instagram (@raisingminniemes), I do have rope drop and “shut it down” posts recently.
Thanks for the data dump Becky! Great to see the return!
My data request is this exact thing but for DisneyLAND. I know most people are here for WDW but throwing it out there…
Maybe a monthly review of Universal and Disneyland? Or something like that? Will see if I can work it in.
I like reading this and seeing that my thoughts on what I’ve been seeing in the app are actually happening in the park. I’m hoping these low waits will still be occurring during our visit in 30 days.
I’m looking forward to your data regarding wait times and how the new lightening lanes work.
Interesting data discussion!
I’m looking forward to the limping data analysis when the new system starts!
Thank you for using the appropriate terminology 😉
So glad Data Dump is back!! Nerds unite!
An idea for a data driven post:
A side by side cost-benefit analysis for the new multipass. Same park, same day, same set of attractions, but two groups. Group A just uses a touringplan. Group B uses a touringplan AND the multipass (first reservations made 3 days beforehand). I’d like to see how much benefit (reduced wait time) is realized for the cost of the multipass.
Gotta start recruiting for people who want to simultaneously live-test 😉
Amazing numbers for early July.
Do you have any data-driven information about how crowded it was for the July 3-4 fireworks, compared with previous years?
Unfortunately, no. Since there aren’t wait times associated with fireworks, we don’t have a good way to calculate it.
Data driven request: I would like to see how a good touring plan can compare with the new lightning lane multi-pass. For instance: Is the multi-pass a must have or can a good touring plan work just as well. It would be nice to compare low-crowd to high crowd times to see if that makes a difference. Thank you for all of the information you present for us fans. It is truly awesome!!
Thank you so much for bringing this back! I love watching Disney through the numbers from afar!
I’m interested to see if Standby times are affected by the recent changes made to DAS
Great data information! Can’t wait to read 2025 edition of the Unofficial Guide to WDW.
I’m disappointed the late day stacking of Genie+ will be gone, it was a great way to get on a lot of rides, on a short trip to the park. Will be interested in the data analysis on that with the new system
My data-driven article request for the contest: The most efficient touring plan for the Halloween party, with rides and shows only (no character greetings, parade, fireworks, dance parties, or trick-or-treating).
Glad to see the weekly report returning!
I’d love to see some similar statistics reports from Universal, especially knowing that Universal parks is about to get a big bump in attendance next year. I know there is less data coming from Universal park goers, so perhaps it can be a monthly report.
Love the data dump! Thank you for bringing it back. Would love to understand how VQ wait times change throughout the day. It seems like a low boarding group means lower waits. Later in the day, the VQs get longer. Is this because they allow guests in the queue past their return time.
Contest entry. I have never visited Disney World and I am planning a vacation for late next year. I am listening to ALL the podcasts and reading ALL the books/blogs, and yours are my favorite. So helpful and at times very funny. I am an Engineer, so having a plan based on data is essential. Will you please write an article about dietary options during the Holidays (I am gluten/dairy/peanut free)? I keep reading about different Christmas parties and fun food booths, but while a few mention options, the information tends to be ambiguous…like dietary options are provided (but for all restrictions or some???). I am not sure if any of the expensive Christmas parties are worth it if I can barely eat anything. If you have already written on this, I apologize and would appreciate the link. Thank you.
Data-driven article request for contest entry: The most efficient touring plan for the Halloween party, rides and shows only (no character greetings, parade, fireworks, or trick or treating).
Glad to see this back! Hope this trend continues into September! I’m still not sure how you manage to do so much each week, goals!
Love seeing these posts. In terms of data ideas, I’d be curious if there are any crowd level predictions or even just general rules of thumb about crowd trends at the 2 water parks, especially now that they are no longer both open at the same time. It would seem like that would have pushed wait times higher if only 1 is open, but perhaps attendance at the water parks has dropped so much that it hasn’t mattered??
Also, I’d be curious if you have any theories about why certain rides are not part of Genie/LLMP, like Gran Fiesta Tour at Epcot. You could say there’s never a line for it, but there’s also never a line for Pixar film festival and I would think they’d want to list as many things as possible to try to make LLMP look more worthwhile, esp at Epcot where it’s value is more questionable.
I think another factor affecting capacity at Epcot is that the current wisdom is to only buy Genie+ at the Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios. If fewer people are buying Genie+ at Epcot, that puts even more pressure on the standby lines than at other parks. Is there any way you can get data on the rates at which people are purchasing Genie+ at each park? I’m also interested to see if there are shifts in attendance or pay-to-skip-the-line services when Genie+ disappears later this month.
Love that Data Dumps are back!
I know you are not a fan of the Dining plan, BUT what are the numbers, if you get a “free” dining plan offer? Maybe a post comparing common offers that Disney puts offers. (For instance this summer they offered “free” quick service plans if you had non-discounted tickets/hotel at value and moderate resorts. )
Nice comeback!! Eager to read your upcoming weekly data dumps!!
I would like some post about LLMP, when does reservations run out, if there are drops, when and how many… Thanks!!
I enjoy the data.
Idea: I’d like to see a comparison of data between Genie+ and the new Lightning Lane system.
Love the series! Great info. Would love to see info added on when MP LL’s sell out after the new system is released on the 24th.
As a numbers guy, I do really enjoy the data dumps, so happy to see they are back! Hopefully it’s not too much of a burden for you!
I love all of this data! Getting our plans and strategies together for our upcoming October trip so this will be a great resource!
I would love to see more data on character dining and how often they have alternates sub in for the scheduled ones.
So excited this posted again. Leaving Sunday. We know it will be hot and are fully prepared for rain!
Here’s 2 ideas for data studies:
1. Does Disney inflate posted wait times more when G+ is available than when it isn’t? You’d probably have to compare actual wait times to posted wait times (a) when G+ is available for an attraction to (b) (i) when G+ is sold out for the attraction for the day or (ii) during parties when G+ isn’t sold–though you may not have a very big sample size for (b).
2. Can you use your restaurant reservation availability data to fine-tune your crowd level predictions? E.g., if 30 days out (or a week or whatever) there are 8 Crystal Palace reservations available between 10am and 4 pm, and if that’s more typical of a crowd level 3 day, then bump the level 5 prediction down a notch.
Hi hizouse, I’ll weigh in on your second suggestion here. It’s an interesting idea but unfortunately the data that goes into our “hardest reservation to get” etc. articles is collected by hand. So that’s a significant barrier to what you are suggesting, even if a correlation could be assumed.
Ah, thanks for the response! I will note that MouseDining has apparently figured out how to automate that data, I wonder if you could borrow it from them.
We missed ya, thank you for bringing this very informative piece back!
Also lol at ME, so excited to post my little Rock n Roller Coaster observation, that I did so BEFORE scrolling back up to finish the blog post and seeing the contest. (:
yay welcome back!! i hope this series is fun for you to write amidst your busy life – know we disney data-ians really appreciate it, at least.
also lol rock n roller coaster. two big refurbs that ended early …. only it for it to resume downtime issues immediately.
I’m excited the blog series is back – and congrats on the book!
My blog post suggestion is around the Genie+/LLMP changes coming up. I’m curious to see if trends change after the new system goes live, or if there will be any data for the pre-selections.
I’m honestly shocked how slow the parks are recently. We last visited in July 2022 and it was busier than we expected, but I think we were still dealing with “post-Covid” revenge travel.
Sorry, didn’t mean to post this twice!
Love seeing this data and using it to help plan out our future trip. Thanking so much for breaking it all down into something that is easily digestible.
I’m excited to have the data dumps back – and congrats on the new book! My blog post suggestion is around the Genie+/LLMP changes coming up – I’m curious to see if patterns will change once the new system is up and running, and if there will be any data around pre-selections.
I’m honestly shocked at how slow the parks are recently. We went in July 2022 and it was busier than we expected but I’m assuming we were still on the coattails of “post-Covid” revenge travel.
Contest entry!
As someone who loves data and LOVES Disney, your posts on Instagram are my favorite. That’s for being such a wealth of knowledge! I would love for data on single rider lines and the new Genie+ system
Happy to see this piece return. Thank you!
I’m just waiting to see how the new Multipass system affects things, as our trip is only a month away!
Hi!
Great articles. Love your Instagram too.
My family visited WDW two weeks ago for our first summer time visit and crowds were not scary at all!
I wonder if folks are waiting and saving up for a trip in 2025 to take advantage of water parks and being on property ($$$) for LLMP etc. ?
Live data, even better if it’s Disney data. I wonder does Disney inflate ride times more at night or mid morning-late afternoon? I think it would be interesting to see if lines are made to look longer by not fully loading cars, etc to try and move crowds to resorts at certain times of the day or if it is just a consistent inflation rate so to speak.
I’m happy to see this back just in time to start researching for our July 2025 trip. We went the third week of August 2023 & enjoyed the low crowds. Due to a scheduling conflict, we are looking at an end of July through early August for next year. Thanks for your hard work!
Yay!!! The data dump is back!!! My Wednesdays now have meaning again!!! 😛
You seem to visit WDW a lot – how about a post on how you use the data to plan your own trips and whether you truly stick to the plan, or how often you audible (with two yung uns I would presume that would be often).
Glad this is back!!!
Looking forward to the book! Data idea to track how much average wait time of other rides in the parknare affected when a main ride is down.
Nothing makes my heart happier than Disney data!!!
Would love to see some comparisons on crowd levels now compared to pre-COVID!
Congrats Alana!! The giant selector wheel of destiny chose you to receive the advance copy of the 2025 Unofficial Guide! I’ll be emailing you at the address associated with this comment to get your physical address for sending the book. Thanks for reading 🙂
I love following all of your data analysis of the parks! I am hoping the low crowd trend stays, I will be there in 14days!
Welcome back. We nerds missed you.
Congrats on the upcoming book release, Becky! Saw your post on LinkedIn about 100 of the pages already outdated due to the Genie+ overhaul.
As far as data projects go, I know Len had previously mentioned working on bus/transportation times between parks and hotels. Any chance you could whet my whistle with some data surrounding those sort of logistics? There’s been a lot of anecdotal evidence for bus wait times, but would love to read something more concrete.
Cheers!
I’d be interested to see if there’s a correlation between park attendance and when a WDW resort opens a new area like with Poly. Thanks Becky! Congrats on the release of Unofficial Guide 2025.
After reading this blog I took a look at Disney’s stock price. It seems that there is a direct correlation with their over projection of park attendance and the stock decreases in value for that particular day i.e July 2nd. Is this why there is such a big push by Disney’s to build more DVC rooms? Get more people on site. Perhaps a bounce back with the new DVC buildings coming online?
I’m looking forward to September too especially since I have two separate Disney trips planned. Hoping for low crowds.
Data dump idea: compare crowd levels on Halloween Party days vs non party days for regular operating hours.
Sorry If I posted twice, it appeared as if my first comment didn’t stick.
Contest entry sounds great, but not as good as summer being the new “off season.” As the wife of a public school teacher, that sounds wonderful to me! We like our longer trips during summer, and smaller crowds make those high, humid temps more tolerable!
I too am excited for September since I’ll be visiting twice that month Hopefully crowds will be down then too. As for a data dump recommendation, when MNSSHP starts could you compare normal park hours with and without a party in the evening. Not exactly apples to apples, but may be interesting.
Entry to get the newest copy of the unofficial guide!
We are traveling to Disney next month and would love to see some data on how the Peter Pan closure will affect early entry rope drop at Magic Kingdom. Will SDMT see a much bigger crowd or will the overall low-crowd not seem to affect it too much? Or… will the smaller attractions absorb the Peter Pan crowd?
If Epcot is currently a problem with crowd because of test track closure why not opening stand by queue for Guardian of the galaxy to compensate?
I forgot how much I absolutely LOVE reading these! It was certainly something I had been missing, and we are all so appreciative of all the work you put in to these articles! Something I have been thinking about a lot as people talk about the increased heat, lack of rain (ie: closure of the boats due to low water levels), and increased hurricane season, is if there is anyway to compare the changes in our global climate to the transition to summer being the “new off season.” Did this just start happening last year with the Eras tour? or has it been slowly progressing as temps rise over the past decade? And if so, what does Disney summers look like in the future? This may be absolutely too crazy of an idea for a future blog post, but it’s something I have been thinking about a lot recently.
So happy to have the data dump back, always so fascinating to me. My only regret is that you didn’t start back with the most recent week we were in WDW (June 16-22), as I always love to see how our use of the pre-planning crowds levels and lines app stood up to actual levels each vacation! For example, we based our travel day to MCO to make sure we were lined up for MK on 6/16, since the Crowd Calendar said MK would be a 4, and we love a low crowd day in MK!
Contest entry
First thanks for doing the data reports. These are always really interesting. A report on how the crowds have shifted based on the time of year would be great or similarly how the touring plans crowd calculator algorithms might have to change
Thanks
Contest entry!
I’d be interested in knowing how wait time data might be used to infer changes in attendance over time (or if you use some kind of attendance-tracking as an input to the models). I’m really curious whether the slow summer reflects a shift in seasonality, or an actual drop in attendance relative to the ‘revenge travel’ years (or even relative to the last few pre-Covid years, e.g. 2017-2019).
Broadly, I have a sense that Disney pushed so aggressive with simultaneous cut-backs and price increases that they’ve materially pushed down demand, but I don’t know if that’s wishful thinking or if it’s actually validated by the data.