Disney Data Dump June 4 2025

Welcome to June, and to the first full week of Cool Kid Summer at Walt Disney World! With new deals in effect and schools starting to let out, we’ve officially stepped into what should be summer vacation time. And yet … you’re going to be shocked … the crowds haven’t descended upon Orlando. This is actually a pretty interesting Data Dump because we’ve got major rope drop problems at one park, major downtime problems at a very popular headliners, and a bunch of shifting around in posted wait times. Let’s dive in!

Observed Crowd Levels May 27 – June 2

Wooo! Look at that Cool Kid Summer! This is our first full week of data when Disney’s summer deals are in effect. And … things haven’t gotten crowded. Yet. Let’s keep in mind that some schools were still in session this week, so things may tick upward. But as of now, crowds are very moderate. In fact, 2024 was the slowest summer on record in the past decade, and crowd levels this week in 2025 are about 1-2 levels lower than they were the same week last year. That’s good news for those with upcoming summer 2025 vacations.

Where are we seeing the biggest difference compared to last week (before Cool Kid Summer started)? Magic Kingdom. It had 5 crowd level one days last week, and none this week. It wasn’t even the least-crowded park one day! That’s a rarity at this point. To me this indicates that Disney’s marketing is working and drawing young families back to Walt Disney World. Otherwise Magic Kingdom would still be in the gutter, and overall crowd levels would probably be even lower than they already are.

Performance of Crowd Level Predictions

Each week, I give you a very transparent look into how the TouringPlans crowd level predictions performed. Each day at each park is one data point, so each week we have 28 different crowd level predictions to evaluate. Any time a prediction is within one or two crowd levels, things won’t really “feel” much different than what was predicted. Being off by 3 or more crowd levels is where you might feel that difference in wait times throughout the day.

In the past week, Touring Plans predictions were either spot-on or within 1 crowd level 29% of the time. That’s pretty similar to last week. And just 58% of the time Touring Plans predictions were within 2 crowd levels, so that means we get an F for our predictions in the past week again. All misses were over-predictions, meaning that crowds came in lower than expected throughout the past week. On average, the crowd level at any park any day of the week was about 2.25 crowd levels below prediction. That means crowds were significantly, noticeably, below what was predicted. The biggest miss of the week was an overprediction by 5 crowd levels, which happened at Hollywood Studios on May 27th. On that day, the park was predicted to be a crowd level 8, but only ended up being a crowd level 3.

Attraction Downtime May 27 – June 2

If we average all of the capacity lost due to unexpected downtime over the past week, it comes out to 3.7% of attractions unexpectedly being down. That’s similar to the past few weeks. In the past week, Animal Kingdom was the park with the most overall downtime, averaging 4.7% of its capacity lost to downtime throughout the week.

The worst day for attraction downtime in the past week was on May 29th. On that day, 5% of all capacity at WDW was lost due to unexpected downtime. The worst park-day of the week was a tie this week, on May 30th at Animal Kingdom and May 27th at Magic Kingdom. On those days, 9% of attraction capacity was lost due to unexpected downtime. Animal Kingdom was open for 11 hours on the 27th, so 9% downtime is the equivalent of the entire park shutting down for almost an hour. And Magic Kingdom was open for 13 hours on the 30th, so 9% downtime there is like the whole park being closed for 70 minutes.

Attraction Downtime Worst Offender

In the past week, Slinky Dog Dash was the WDW attraction with the worst overall downtime. This is the fourth week in a row that Slinky has been the biggest loser for unexpected downtime. No bueno. The ride was unexpectedly down for 20% of the week! The worst day at Slinky was on May 28th, when the attraction was down for 31% of the day. But it was also down for a significant portion of the day on several other days. These are weird, long, sporadic downtimes without any really clear trends, other than overall high downtime.

Rope Drop Downtime

Here are problematic offenders from the past week, with the percentage of downtime during the first hour of the day in parentheses:

• Magic Kingdom: Tiana’s Bayou Adventure (59%) OUCH, Winnie the Pooh (38%), Pirates of the Caribbean (18%), Barnstormer (16%), TTA PeopleMover (14%), Magic Carpets (14%), it’s a small world (14%), Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (11%)
• EPCOT: No rope drop downtime issues!
• Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash (28%), Runaway Railway (13%)
• Animal Kingdom: Expedition Everest (32%)

MAGIC. KINGDOM. Real talk, this is not okay. What a nightmare week for navigating rope drop! Almost every headliner other than Space Mountain and Tron had early morning trouble.

Gold star for the week goes to EPCOT! Stolen away from Animal Kingdom for the first time in a month.

Wait Times May 27 – June 2

Attractions with the Highest Average Posted Wait at Each Park

• EPCOT: Cosmic Rewind, average posted wait of 85 minutes (was 75 minutes last week)
• Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash, average posted wait of 75 minutes (was 57 minutes two weeks ago)
• Magic Kingdom: TRON, average posted wait time of 72 minutes (was 61 minutes last week)
• Animal Kingdom: Flight of Passage, average posted wait time of 63 minutes (was 62 minutes last week)

This was a weird week for the headliners. It’s pretty rare for Flight of Passage to have the lowest posted wait of the headliners in each park. Slinky’s downtime had a HUGE effect on its posted waits when it was open, and Cosmic Rewind and Tron each saw mild increases in their posted wait times too.

Parks with the Highest and Lowest Average Wait

These parks likely won’t change week-to-week unless something ridiculous happens, but these data points will give us a high-level view of how wait times are trending from week to week.

• Highest: Animal Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 36 minutes (was 36 minutes last week)
• Lowest: Magic Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 23 minutes (was 19.5 minutes last week)

Animal Kingdom, thy name is consistency. The average posted wait at AK has been 36 minutes for three weeks straight! But Magic Kingdom is seeing some increased waits as we head into summer.

Most Inflated Posted Wait Times

We all know that Disney inflates their posted wait times on purpose. They have many reasons for doing this. Some are totally understandable, and some are potentially more problematic. We can figure out how much posted wait times are being inflated by comparing submitted actual wait times from the Lines App and the posted wait time when the person timing their wait entered the line.

Over the past week, actual wait times in the Lines App averaged 70% of what was posted. Overall, if the posted wait time at a popular attraction was 60 minutes, you could’ve expected to wait just 42 minutes instead.

But the worst offender for the past week was Gran Fiesta Tour. At this one attraction, submitted actual wait times were only 43% of posted wait times in the past week. That means that if the attraction had a 20 minute posted wait, you probably would have actually only waited 8.5 minutes instead. Less than half of what was posted. Remember to always check the Lines app for predicted actual waits instead of making decisions based on what is posted.

This Week’s Wait Time Rock Star

Between May 7th and June 2nd, we had over 1,300 timed actual waits submitted through the Lines app. The one person who recorded the most actual waits during that time was danthemanjordan, with 37 overall timed waits – 18 standby waits and 19 Lightning Lane waits. Thanks for all of that timing, danthemanjordan! It unfortunately does not compete with the the 97 timed waits in a single week from our current timing champion, preef.

Looking Ahead: June 3 – 9

I write this article on Tuesday evenings so that you all have the very freshest of data on Wednesdays. That means the 3rd will already be in the past by the time you’ve read this, so we’ve conquered time travel.

Based on operating hours, Disney’s not expecting any big crowds in the upcoming week, and I’m not either. Could we see a bunch of crowds in the level 5 range? Sure. Should they pop much above that? Not unless we see a lot of downtime that boosts waits at other attractions.

Speaking of downtime at attractions … there seem to be quite a few summer storms heading for Orlando over the coming week. Have your indoor plans ready, as well as your rain gear! On days when it doesn’t storm, the parks will be HOT. Break up your day with indoor queues and shows or character meets.

Were you in the parks this past week? Or are you headed to Orlando soon? Let me know in the comments below!