Crowd Calendar Update for July 2025 – Lighter Crowds, Lower Waits, and Why Crowd Forecasts Are Changing for All Parks
If you’ve been following Becky’s weekly crowd recaps for Disney World, you know the story: this has been one of the calmest Julys in recent memory. We’re calling it the “Starlight Summer Surge” delay — a perfect storm of families holding off for the new parade, locals skipping the heat, and afternoon storms chasing everyone indoors. The result? Wait times have dropped. Significantly. In fact, crowd levels so far in 2025 have been consistently, dramatically lower than anticipated. This isn’t just a forecasting hiccup — it reflects a real shift in how guests are using the parks.
But it’s not just Disney World that has seen consistent changes. That’s why we’ve just published a full crowd calendar update for Walt Disney World, Disneyland, and Universal Orlando, better aligning future crowd levels with current guest behavior and travel trends. These changes will begin to go live in a few hours, and should be completely visible on the site by the afternoon of July 23.
What Happened at Walt Disney World?
Across the board, wait times at WDW have come in lighter than forecast. In the first half of 2025:
- 78% of park-days were overpredicted — actual crowds were lower than expected most of the time.
- On average, crowd levels came in about 2.5 points lower than predicted — especially at Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios, where headliner attractions are seeing historically low waits.
- 40% of predictions were within 1 level — not terrible, but not where we want to be.
This isn’t just a modeling issue — it’s a guest behavior shift. We don’t think it’s a decline in park attendance either. More on that later…
What’s New in This Update?
To bring the crowd calendar back in line with current trends, we’ve made several key changes:
- Recalibrated our clustering thresholds with extra emphasis on spring-to-summer 2025 trends. This is a rescaling exercise which can cause a change in crowd level distribution without representing an actual change in crowd density. Just a realignment to the latest norm.
- Reforecasted all dates through early 2026 using updated data.
- Incorporated recent behavioral signals, including:
- Consistently lower wait times, especially in MK and EPCOT
- High downtime days, such as July 14, which disrupted crowd flow
- Anticipated guest shifts tied to Test Track’s relaunch and the debut of the Starlight Parade
What Else Is Causing the Drop in Attendance?
It’s not just the theme parks — broader travel trends are in play too:
- Fewer Americans are traveling this summer, with 56% planning to reduce vacation spending.
- International visitors remain down year-over-year, particularly from Canada and Europe.
- But Orlando Theme Parks are holding steady according to Len Testa, who recently appeared on Bloomberg News to discuss the latest trends
Hotel occupancy, tax revenue and cruise line attendance are all up or flat this quarter, bucking the national trends. Epic Universe seems to be bringing in enough visitors to offset whatever travel dips are in play. Len attributes the reduced wait times we’ve seen in 2025 to three potential factors
- Reduction in use of Disney’s Disability Access Service (DAS).
- Adjusted Priorities for Lightning Lane and Standby queues.
- Less inflation of posted times relative to the actual time you will wait.
Whatever the reasons, we’re responding with this update. Let’s break it down by park.
Park-by-Park Highlights From This Update
Magic Kingdom
About 75% of Magic Kingdom dates remain within 2 points of their previous crowd level. Most changes are downward, reflecting persistently low waits and guest deferrals ahead of the Starlight Parade debut. A few dates — particularly around Halloween and Christmas — have increased slightly, accounting for the limited full-day options on party nights. While we still expect heavy crowds around December 27–January 1, international traffic may be lower than in past years, muting the traditional peak somewhat.
EPCOT
25% of EPCOT dates were reduced by more than 2 points, with an average overall drop of 1.4 levels. Only 2% of days increased, while most stayed steady. Much of what we’ll see this fall depends on guest response to Test Track’s refurbishment. We now have over 1,000 days of data on Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, which has improved our modeling, and we’ll soon better account for Cosmic Rewind as well.
Hollywood Studios
No park has underperformed vs. historical averages like Hollywood Studios. 41% of dates saw crowd level reductions, with the rest holding steady or nudging slightly upward. Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge remains popular, but standby waits no longer resemble the land’s opening years. That maturity, plus flat Lightning Lane patterns, have driven this update.
Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom saw the least change of the four WDW parks. 88% of dates stayed within 2 points of their previous forecast. Some days around Thanksgiving and Christmas rose slightly to reflect historical patterns, while August and October eased downward in line with lighter travel expectations.
What Happened at Disneyland?
Crowd patterns haven’t changed as much at Disneyland. As a park that draws more of its attendance from locals, changes in international travel and overall vacation travel for Americans haven’t had quite the same impact. Accuracy in 2025 has been much better than we saw at Disney World, but we still needed adjustments based on recent patterns.
Park-by-Park Highlights From This Update
Disneyland Park
Disneyland had one of the highest average errors in early 2025 — around 1.8 points — and this update aims to correct that. Interestingly, this is the only park where more dates increased than decreased. Still, 77% of days remain within 2 points of the original forecast. We expect greater accuracy moving forward as post-pandemic travel patterns normalize.
California Adventure
87% of California Adventure dates stayed within 2 points of their prior levels. Changes were evenly split between increases and decreases. Lighter-than-expected summer and fall attendance drove some drops through October, while Spring 2026 — particularly January and April — saw some upward adjustments based on holiday overlap and school breaks.
What Happened at Universal Orlando?
We could expect Epic Universe to bring new crowd patterns and needed adjustments to these parks. But like Disney World, they’re also feeling the effects of both domestic and international travel planning.
Park-by-Park Highlights From This Update
Universal Studios Florida
This park saw the biggest systemic shift: 85% of dates dropped, mostly in August and October, with an average reduction of 1.9 levels. This isn’t just a crowd issue — we also adjusted the threshold definitions for crowd levels at Universal. Without this recalibration, the upper half of our scale was being overused. The new distribution better reflects current guest patterns.
Islands of Adventure
Changes at IOA were more moderate. Most dates stayed within 2 points of previous levels. Like USF, a few days in January and April 2026 increased due to holiday patterns, but the overall curve is now smoother and better calibrated for the months ahead.
Final Thoughts
We know how important accurate crowd forecasts are for planning your vacation — whether you’re choosing park days, setting your alarm for rope drop, or deciding when to splurge on Lightning Lanes. That’s why we update the calendar when the data tells us it’s time. This latest round of changes reflects evolving guest behavior, shifting travel patterns, and our continued commitment to delivering the best possible planning tools for TouringPlans users.
As always, we’ll continue monitoring trends daily and adjust as needed. If you notice something that feels off or want to share your in-park experience, let us know — your feedback helps keep this calendar sharp.
________
P.S. A Crowd Calendar Evolution Is Coming…
This update won’t be the last — and behind the scenes, we’re working on a more foundational refresh. That means revisiting the very structure of the calendar itself:
- Reviewing whether our current 1–10 scale still best serves planners
- Re-examining the basket of attractions that drive each park’s crowd level
- Exploring more flexible clustering techniques to better capture seasonal patterns
We’re testing new ideas now, and you’ll start seeing the results soon. Stay tuned!
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I came back to check the crowd calendar because I was considering purchading LLPP for Magic Kingdom. I was pleasantly surprised to see all the dates of our vacation are down by at least 2! We are doing MK during the day and MNSSHP on the 17th. If our goal is to rope drop & hit every ride and still get a little break before the Halloween party is it even plausible with out LLPP?
Definitely missing the heatmap! Those green squares never failed me. Thanks for taking time to answer questions here. The technical wording was hard to follow. Although my April vacation went up significantly, as a long time User it was obvious CL 3 during school vacation week was unrealistic. Thanks again for all you do
WOW! I was just pricing out lightning lanes etc for our trip starting August 6…I had put together my spreadsheet with crowd calendars before the update. When trying to decide if we wanted to book Premier Pass or Lightning Lanes I decided to check the calendars here…and I’m glad I did. Some days swayed by 3 points down!
I was curious if crowds were lighter because just yesterday, I looked to see if there was availability at the post fireworks dessert party (figuring none…but wanted to investigate if it would be beneficial not only for fireworks but the new night time parade)….and was SHOCKED to see availability for a post fireworks dessert party on the 7th just a couple weeks away.
This was an excellent post Fred, thank you! It has me thinking about our upcoming trip from August 1–9. Would Touring Plans still recommend Lightning Lanes for any of those days? My sense is that LLMP is worth having for MK and HS, and possibly EP now that Test Track is back.
I tend to agree with you Andrew, if budget was at all a concern I’d save the money on Lightning Lanes and enjoy the lighter lines.
If the numbers aren’t based on crowds, but rather on wait times, maybe change the name of the metric from Crowd Level to something more representative. Queue Quotient? Line Level? Testa Time?! There’s more where that came from. I am available as a paid consultant. 🙂
Excellent options! You’re right – the crowd calendar is really a wait time index, representing the average posted time between 11am and 5pm for a chosen set of representative attractions. I teased a new evolution for the calendar in the tag of the blog post but this is one thing we’re considering. A stand-alone Crowd Level to indicate historical attendance and a predicted wait time index that is measurable and can be compared to observations. What do you think?
I love the idea of a stand alone crowd level plus wait time index. The former helps me pick trip dates, while the latter helps me plan the content of my trip days. Both are important but would be utilized in different ways.
I love the idea of a separate crowd level index and a separate wait time index. While they are related, I do believe these is confusion (both with guests and other bloggers) when one serves as a proxy for the other.
By the way, I’ll be visiting Orlando from January 15 to February 5, 2026.
Coming from Brazil, this is a very expensive trip, and careful planning becomes not just helpful, but essential — that’s why tools like Touring Plans make such a big difference for international guests like me.
Something I’ve been wondering: based on what I’ve seen from wait time data and even casual reports on TikTok, it seems like fewer people are visiting during the summer months lately. The heat seems to be pushing guests away. Do you think this could signal a long-term shift in crowd patterns, with more guests choosing to visit during the winter, even outside of traditional school breaks, and around long weekends throughout the year?
Here in Brazil, our main school vacation is in January — which is summer for us — so that’s one of the reasons I chose this time of year, in addition to what used to be lower crowds. I’m just trying to understand if that assumption is still valid going forward.
Hi Biessa, I’m not Fred, but I do travel in the summer and am a parent so I can speak to some of this.
Yes, I think there is a shift away from the summer being peak months. This is not just an opinion; I write the articles that break down of ticket prices and hotel prices and you can clearly see that the ticket prices in the summer, especially in late July and August, are priced as though there are lower crowds in those months. And beginning around 2019 (pre-pandemic, so this is not a COVID effect), Disney adjusted the Disney Vacation Club “seasons”, lowering the “prices” to visit during the summer/late summer and making other times of year a bit more expensive.
It’s not just the heat that is driving this. It’s also the case that there is a trend in the US to move to longer school years with more breaks, so not everyone is constrained by needing to visit during the summer months as much as in the past. I think post-pandemic, parents are also more willing to have their kids miss school for a vacation. And, there has been a lot of journalism about how an increasing percentage of Disney World visitors are parties of all-adults; they are not constrained by the school schedule at all.
Fred can probably speak more to January specifically, but my sense of it is that it can be very variable. We have MLK Day, which creates a 3-day weekend, and also at the beginning of the month is New Year’s, and there is the marathon. Depending how those events line up, it can introduce some variability. But if you look at room and ticket prices, they are still very favorable in January – I would say it is a question of needing to be careful which dates you pick, not whether it is a good time to go.
Thank you so much for your thoughtful reply, Jennifer! I really appreciate you taking the time to share your perspective!
I consider myself a WDW nerd, and it’s not often that I have people to talk to about these things. Most Brazilian travelers experience Disney in a very different way than I do, so it’s refreshing to connect with someone who really understands the nuances.
It’s fascinating to hear how these shifts in crowd patterns are reflected not just in guest behavior, but also in pricing strategies and DVC seasons. That definitely helps put things into context. I hadn’t thought much about changes in school calendars, but now that you mention it, we’re seeing something similar here too. School breaks are getting shorter because schools are required to have more instructional days than they used to.
It’s reassuring to know that January can still be a good time to visit, as long as I’m mindful of specific dates and events. I’ll definitely keep an eye on the MLK weekend — in fact, I’m planning to spend those days visiting some friends in the Central Florida area.
Thanks again. this kind of information is absolute gold for international travelers like me who are trying to plan carefully and make the most of every day!
Thanks so much for the reply! That’s exactly what I was wondering.
So does this mean that the expected wait times for each crowd level have been updated within the scale itself? For example, when I look at the chart on the Crowd Calendar (“What does each number mean?”), have the average wait times listed for a level 5 or 7 changed based on this new calibration?
As someone who’s been using Touring Plans for many years, I’ve built a kind of internal reference. I kinda know what a “5” used to feel like. Now I realize I probably need to recalibrate that feeling to match the new model.
It would be super helpful if you could show a direct comparison of how the wait times for each level shifted with this update. That might help longtime users like me better understand what to expect from a 3, 5, or 7 now.
Uau, I’m planning to travel from Europe during the last half of August (I’m one of the few who will travel to USA) and I’m really surprised by the updated crowd calendar.. Are you expecting to fine-tune it in the short term? Because whith that crowd levels I think I will skip lighting lanes..
Fine-tune, yes. But no doubt you can expect some really short lines compared to what we’ve seen historically. Enjoy!
Hello
I am not surprised to see some evolution in forecasting after reeding weeks and weeks of how TP over predicted.
However I am extremely surprised by the major jumps displayed.
It does seem weird after reading so many reports about lower attendance.
Of course I am disappointed as my travel dates have significantly worsened. I understand the change in patterns but I agree it was a bit of a blunt delivery.
Apologies for the bluntness — that’s a fair point. We always try to balance consistency with the need to keep our predictions accurate and up to date. In this case, accuracy had to take priority. That said, if you have specific questions about your travel dates, I’d be happy to take a closer look and provide more detail.
Hello – if you offer so kindly !
I will travel from April 15 to 25 2026.
From what I saw it was one of the best weeks previously. Maybe not anymore ?
If you offer, we are going from April 15 to 25 2026.
It used to be the best week from what I saw initially.
It’s great to have updated crowd levels, but some of us don’t quite understand the words you use. The paragraph that starts with “Recalibrated our clustering thresholds” – can you explain that paragraph another way, or give an example? TIA
Good question! When we say “recalibrated our clustering thresholds”, we mean we looked at the latest wait time data and adjusted what counts as a crowd level 3, 5, 10, etc. Ride patterns change over time — what used to be a “5” day might now feel like a “7.” We update the cutoffs so the crowd levels stay consistent with how busy the park feels now. Example: If a 45-minute wait used to happen on level 5 days but now shows up on lighter days, we shift things so 45 minutes maps to a lower level. Make sense?
Just asking – If rides that used to be a 45-minute wait on a “Level 5” day are now 45 minutes on lighter days, doesn’t that mean that there are now higher waits on what used to be lower level days (ie level 2) so that levels now have lost all meaning?.
Daily crowd heatmap need to come back, it’s the only way to see true how to plan your day with park hopper. By exemple on sunday night even if HS is at 8 it’s a good choice because many leave for the night.
Ah yes – I miss those too! I will add it to my list to see if we can get something similar in our next redesign.
I second this request for a return to the daily heatmap by hour! I miss this so much and it helped us decide when to hop from one park to another even on high-crowd days. PLEASE bring it back!
Like many of the commenters above, I am curious about the updates for 2026. Specifically, I’m wondering about the Tuesday after Easter… it jumped up to a crowd level 9 for some reason. I would have thought that crowds would be tailing off after Easter, but somehow that is showing the highest crowd day in Jan-April… higher than MLK, Presidents‘ Day, Spring Break… I’d love to hear why I should avoid that day! Thank you!
Easter can be a tricky one.
Next year (2026), Easter is early (April 5), and our data shows that the Tuesday after Easter tends to stay very busy — especially when schools are still out and many guests extend their trips.
In 2024 (the best recent match, since Easter also fell in early April), that Tuesday had some of the longest waits of the spring — even more than Spring Break or the Monday holidays. Our forecast for 2026 reflects that pattern: not just Easter Sunday, but the few days after are part of the peak.
Other years don’t line up as cleanly (like 2025, when that same Tuesday fell before Easter), so we weight comparisons like 2024 more heavily.
So while it might feel like Easter crowds should drop fast, our wait time data shows a “linger effect” into mid-week, especially at Magic Kingdom.
Hope that helps
Thanks for the reply. One other question- does your crowd prediction take into account AP blackouts? Becky has mentioned in some recent posts that pirate pass blackout dates can be indicators of low crowds and I see pirate pass is still blacked out that week… wondering if that info changes your thoughts on that day being a 9. Thanks again!
I’ve been a Touring Plans user and advocate for over 10 years, and I truly appreciate the value this tool has brought to my Disney and Universal trips. But I have to admit that this latest update left me feeling a bit unsure.
The recalibration of the crowd levels and the removal of predictions for Epic Universe caught me by surprise. I understand that models need to evolve and reflect current behavior, but as someone actively planning a trip based on this data, the sudden shifts have made it harder to feel confident in the calendar.
It also feels a bit counterintuitive. The blog mentions that parks are unusually calm this July, yet the crowd levels suddenly increased on many of my travel dates. I’m sure there’s a solid explanation, I just haven’t been able to fully understand it as a user.
I’m still a big fan of your work and very grateful for all the tools you provide.
Thank you so much for being a long-time supporter — that really means a lot to us. And you’re absolutely right: the latest update was a big one, and we know it can be a little jarring when the numbers shift unexpectedly.
To clarify a few things:
The July “calm” refers to overall park conditions this year, which have been unusually manageable — fewer long lines, more availability. But when we updated the models, we also recalibrated how we define each crowd level (1–10), based on current patterns rather than past assumptions. So yes, some days that used to be labeled lower now show up as 7s, 8s, or 9s — not because the parks got busier, but because we’re grading on a stricter scale. This refreshing exercise was long overdue.
As for Epic Universe, you should see those figures back now – that was my mistake. Not including them in the update wiped them out temporarily.
We hear you — it’s our job to make this tool trustworthy and easy to understand, and we’ll keep working to improve both the transparency and stability of our forecasts. We’re grateful you spoke up.
I noticed there used to be ratings for Epic Universe, but now they’re gone. Is that permanent?
Ah thanks for that! Not including Epic Universe in the update seems to have caused them to disappear – I added them back in and they should return shortly.
Thanks 🙂
In your text you talk about MK dropping lightly, for the date of my trip (march 3rd to 9th) it has come from a 4 to 10! Is this an error? All the week the other park are at 4-5-6 and MK 8-10.
I dug into the data for March 9, 2026 and compared it to past years for the same week.
While 2025 had unusually low average wait times at Magic Kingdom (about 26 minutes across headliners), nearly every other year from 2016–2024 shows significantly higher crowds — with observed averages ranging from 44 to 53 minutes.
Our models flagged 2025 as a historical outlier and leaned more heavily on prior seasonal patterns, where this week consistently falls within peak Spring Break travel. That’s why the forecasted wait for 2026 is back up around 37 minutes — which aligns more closely with historical expectations, although still lower than most years.
So while 2025 was calm, the broader trend supports a busy day — which is why March 9, 2026 received a crowd level 10.
But march 3 to 7 is’nt the spring break week, why do we see MK at 8 while the other are at 4-5? Should I focus doing EP, HS and MK at the begening of the week and keep AK for Saturday while the crowd will be high (8)? I’m surprise that AK get a 8 on that sature day and HS a 5? Everything I know or read is broken haha! I don’t know where to go on what day anymore
Having been reading the blog posts I was expecting this update but to my surprise all my days in Feb 2026 have experience increases in crowd levels! A few days Epcot has reduced but all 8 days MK has increased including by 3 crowd levels on several days and AK has experienced increases on 7 days also by up to 3 levels. What’s going on in February that’s changed?
This!
I’ll be visiting in late January and early February. I chose those dates hoping for moderate crowds and cooler weather — but it looks like I might only get one of those!
Thanks for digging into the updates — and great question. The crowd level increases you’re seeing for February 2026 aren’t due to a single event or change, but rather the result of two things happening together:
Recalibrated crowd level definitions – Our scale (1–10) now reflects the current reality of how busy a park feels relative to recent patterns. That means the same wait times that used to be a “6” might now qualify as an “8” if guests have generally been seeing shorter lines in recent months.
Refreshed forecasts using updated data – February is a month when we think guests are planning to visit instead of summer, especially around Presidents’ Day, runDisney events, and some school breaks that shift year to year. The model picked up on those changes and adjusted 2026 accordingly.
The big takeaway: the underlying wait time predictions may not have jumped as dramatically — it’s the interpretation on the 1–10 scale that’s changed. We’ll share more detail on that in future posts!
Good stuff, and transparent as always. I think Becky has been fielding questions weekly about when the crowd calendar was going to be updated since it’s been so far off this spring and summer (but at least overestimates, so off in a good way).
I do like the 1-10 scale used on the calendar with 1 & 10 being used to represent just a few low and high crowd days per year even if it doesn’t lend itself perfectly to a normal distribution. Maybe use a 0-10 scale with one decimal place? Or potentially a percentile scale 1-99?
Please continue updating! I definitely make travel decisions based on the calendar. the 1-10 system works, so I’d like that to stay. As a DLR guest, I’d especially like you to be sure to check on levels throughout the day. I find the evening CLs to be challenging and would appreciate more info there. Thanks for staying on this!