Disneyland Crowd Levels are down in 2020 so far, so it is time for a Disneyland Crowd Calendar update. Half of the days since January 1, 2020, saw a crowd level less than ‘3’ on our scale. That goes for Disneyland Park and Disney California Adventure. Compare that to last year when California Adventure had seven days reach a crowd level ’10’ during the same period. Between January 1 and February 14, 2019, the average crowd level between the two parks was above 5; this year it was below 3.2.
This update reflects that trend with most changes being reductions in crowd level. However, as with any update, there are some days that will increase as well. Overall, the changes are not significant. Most days increase or decrease by a single point. Here is a closer look at what to expect over the next few months.
Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge
The recent dips in crowd size is surprising given that Rise of the Resistance has only been open for a month. The new land and new ride are drawing large crowds but they’re not heading to other areas of the resort after experiencing Batuu. We normally observe a 6-12% bump in wait times across the park when a new headliner opens, but it looks like Disneyland will actually show a drop of 5-10% when the wave is over. Last Sunday both parks were a crowd level ‘2’ for example, when normally we would expect to see a ‘5’ or ‘6’. Granted, some of that was caused by light rain across the park. Still, this is new territory for our models. We hear that Smuggler’s Run will be getting FASTPASS soon. We will keep an eye on that to see how it may affect wait times.
As we head into Presidents’ Day, we expect crowds to pick up across both Disneyland Parks. This is usually the busiest week in February. Last year California Adventure hit a crowd level ’10’ many times; this year the crowd calendar predicts it will only hit that peak twice. Disneyland will be very crowded as well although not to the maximum level on our scale. Prepare yourself for long lines and crowded walkways if you plan to visit the parks next week. We predict the Presidents’ Day rush will end on Friday or Saturday. After that, the remainder of February looks pretty good for crowd levels with a few days even predicted to be at a crowd level ‘1’ or ‘2’.
Most updates in March are reductions in crowd level by a point or two in the second half of the month. The calendar predicts that the first week of March will be the best for light crowds while March 9 onward looks really busy. Only one day changes as a result of this update between March 9 and March 19, and it only changes by a single point.
The Disneyland Crowd Calendar tracks the school schedules for the top 100 districts in America. The busiest Spring Break crowds in April will arrive at the resort between April 14 and 21, the week following Easter weekend. This update will see the days after Spring Break go down a point or two for dates until the end of the month. April 27 is the only exception where we see the crowd levels stay flat.
No crowd levels in May change by more than a point as a result of this update. May is expected to be busy for most of the month. There are some days at the end of month when the crowds dip below a level ‘5’. Grad nights at California Adventure are scattered throughout May, with the first one taking place on May 8.
Crowd level estimates for June look pretty stable as well with no major changes to report. June is a good month for avoiding crowds. If you check the Disneyland Crowd Calendar you can find several 3-4 day stretches where the crowd level stays below 5. That makes for comfortable touring around the resort. Grad nights at California Adventure continue throughout June.
Summer and Beyond
We are predicting a pretty typical summer at Disneyland Resort in terms of crowds with the busiest days around July 4th, which falls on a Saturday this year. August looks pretty busy for the first half of the month and then dies down as the kids begin to head back to school on August 18. July and August will see very few crowd levels change by more than a point as a result of this update. However, as we head into the fall we do see some drops in crowd level. In 2019 we overestimated some dates in October and November and our models have detected that in this update.
Do you have Disneyland crowd calendar questions for the stats team? Let us know in the comments.