Will Last Saturday’s Surprise Crowd Repeat Tomorrow at Magic Kingdom?

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We don’t think so, but be prepared with a back-up plan just in case.

Our prediction for the crowd level last Saturday, November 15, was among the 1% of all our predictions that missed by more three index levels on our Crowd Calendar. There are a number of possible explanations, so it is difficult to pinpoint the correct one.

We have no days on record other than last Saturday where Magic Kingdom had a three day stretch that went like this:

  • Thursday with a Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party
  • Friday with a Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party
  • Saturday with evening Extra Magic Hours

So, it may be that this specific combination of park hours and schedules drives up attendance on the Saturday. If so, we may see similarly large crowds tomorrow. That contradicts what we normally see on a Saturday in mid-November, which is why our crowd calendar estimate remains at a level ‘2’ for Magic Kingdom tomorrow.

We are cautiously sticking to our prediction for tomorrow until we have sufficient data that suggests a new trend has arrived but we encourage Liners and TouringPlan-ers to have a back up plan just in case. You can make sure to arrive early, be prepared to park-hop, have lunch at a monorail resort, plan a longer mid-day break and use your Lines App to re-optimize your touring plan while in the park.

Remember, a touring plan is the single best way to beat the lines, no matter how crowded it is, and they especially offer great insurance against surprise crowds.

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

11 thoughts on “Will Last Saturday’s Surprise Crowd Repeat Tomorrow at Magic Kingdom?

  • November 21, 2014 at 3:20 pm
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    I am at my last day of Disney, here nov 16-21. These crowds and wait times are nuts! We have gone this time the last 4 years, and I don’t remember it being this busy. The popular really rides have always had 30-40 min waits, but I don’t remember haunted mansion having 40-60 min waits! Elsa & Anna had waits up to 2 1/2 hrs

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  • November 21, 2014 at 3:26 pm
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    Haunted mansion i can understand, since it’s closing Nov 30th, but I’m hoping they die down for early December.

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  • November 21, 2014 at 3:44 pm
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    Nooooo! We purposely left a day early to get one day of low crowds! Hoping it is a 2 tomorrow. B:) but glad to have Lines to help!!!!

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  • November 21, 2014 at 5:19 pm
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    Since October, Saturday crowds have been heavy after two nights of a “party”…

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  • November 21, 2014 at 9:35 pm
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    I was there last Saturday and I felt like an ANT! I am wondering what the crowd level was?

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  • November 22, 2014 at 10:16 am
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    Yesterday(Friday the 21) was definitely not a 2 when we got there. It felt like a 6. We went back to our resort to swim instead. The first few days were cold and wet this week. Thais have been the only lighter days that we’ve seen.

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  • November 23, 2014 at 11:30 am
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    It looks like another ‘7’ happened.

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  • November 24, 2014 at 3:10 pm
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    Looks like this sequence of days (party Thursday, party Friday, EEMH Saturday) will be repeated on December 13th and that is listed as a 2 as well.

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  • November 25, 2014 at 9:07 am
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    Saturday, Nov. 22, more in the 7/8 range. Wait times 50-90 min. Definitely not the 2 predicted.

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  • November 25, 2014 at 9:56 am
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    Yes, I don’t see how ANY Saturday at MK with EMH can be a ‘2’, regardless of surrounding party nights…even during so-called slow periods.

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  • December 2, 2014 at 11:41 am
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    Yeah, just our luck that we were at MK on this very busy day. We were lucky to have Fastpasses for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train midday, and the crowds thinned out late so we got in several rides then. Otherwise, it is the first time I have ever contemplated leaving the park to go do something else since it was so crowded and we had already spent a day in MK plus the Christmas party earlier in the week.

    Reply

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