Disneyland Crowd Calendar Update for November 2021

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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! Well, almost. We are anxiously waiting to see how many people head to Disneyland Resort for the holiday. Historically, crowd levels will hit the upper end of our scale starting on Wednesday, but there are always exceptions. Here are the crowd levels that we observed at Disneyland Park during Thanksgiving week in 2018:

Monday, November 19, 2018 – 10

Tuesday, November 20, 2018 – 8

Wednesday, November 21, 2018 – 4

Thursday, November 22, 2018 – 9

Friday, November 23, 2018 – 8

Saturday, November 24, 2018 – 6

Sunday, November 25, 2018 – 1

The ’10’ on Monday and the ‘4’ on Wednesday were anomalies in 2018. Comparing with 2019 isn’t very helpful because the parks were flooded with rain most of the week, and 2020 was…well…2020. This update predicts that Thanksgiving week in 2021 will see both parks hit ‘7’s and ‘8’s most days. That is more in line with historical trends.

The bigger question for Disneyland Resort however is when will it get a launch date for Genie. We are well into our analysis of how Genie is affecting wait times and crowd levels at Walt Disney World Resort but its impact on Disneyland may be a little different given that guests are already well versed with MaxPass. Will guests that used MaxPass get onboard with Genie in similar numbers or will we see a new paradigm altogether?

The update we are posting today has mostly minor changes to the calendar, up or down a point or two, on average. Many days don’t change at all. It has been a while since we updated the Disneyland Crowd Calendar and we have a lot of wait time data this fall to get a sense of how crowds are flowing through the parks since the summer.

As always, we welcome your questions and comments about the Disneyland Crowd Calendar. Leave us a message below.

 

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

4 thoughts on “Disneyland Crowd Calendar Update for November 2021

  • November 19, 2021 at 3:55 pm
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    Have to say, wish this update had dropped sooner. We planned a trip in December months ago, strategically picking our days and parks based on the crowd calendar. We kept checking back as we made reservations to make sure the crowd levels were still decent. Now, one of the days in Disneyland jumped from a 5 to an 8! Yikes. With having to make park reservations/restaurant reservations/hotel reservations well in advance, is there a reason this took so long to update? The crowd calendar is one of the main reasons we have a touring plan subscription.

    Also, on a related note, just how crazy is an “8” at Disneyland? We’ve always tried to avoid crowded park days in the past, so not sure what we’re in for.

    Reply
  • November 19, 2021 at 4:25 pm
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    Agree!!!!!! We are on our way and now I’m less than thrilled.

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  • November 20, 2021 at 1:13 pm
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    Agree with other comments. “The update we are posting today has mostly minor changes to the calendar, up or down a point or two” is far from the truth. Very disappointed in Touring to go from a 2/3 to a 7/7 with less than a week’s notice. “This update predicts that Thanksgiving week in 2021 will see both parks hit ‘7’s and ‘8’s most days. That is more in line with historical trends.” If it is based on historical data, why did it take so long to adjust? We had been watching the crowd calendar regularly in order to adjust our trip to less crowded times if needed, but at this point it is too late. Will definitely be rethinking my subscription.

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  • November 20, 2021 at 2:28 pm
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    Thanks for the feedback everyone, and we understand the frustration. We track Disneyland wait times everyday but it would be impractical to update the calendar that often. Instead, we re-forecast our models every few days and update the Crowd Calendar about every month. This creates the inevitable reality that we have to make what look like abrupt changes to the forecasts but they’re not. It isn’t as though we knew six weeks ago that Thanksgiving would go up in our calendar – it is only after watching what happened on Columbus Day and Veterans day (and every other day in between, in fact) that our models adjusted these numbers upward.

    Our philosophy is to provide you the most accurate crowd level prediction based on the most current information that we have rather than to keep our predictions the same for the sake of consistency. We hope that if you know crowd levels will be larger than previously expected you can prepare better with re-optimized touring plans. Also, these are just predictions. It may be that our models are overreacting to recent trends and Thanksgiving crowds will be manageable. Let’s hope that is the case but prepare a good plan in case it isn’t.

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