Trying to predict Crowd Levels has been been a challenge this year. In July it looked like we had turned the corner and things were returning to normal. Disney dropped the mask mandate; more attractions, restaurants, and hotels were opening; and attendance was up. Starting in August we have seen a decrease in wait times and crowd levels. We have been watching the data and it is time again to adjust our Crowd Calendar. It is typical for crowds to decrease as students return to school. Typically we don’t see the decrease until September. The charts below show the observed crowd levels for 2019 and 2021. The black line is the 2-week trend over time.
The Delta variance of COVID-19, rising cases, and the return of masks indoor at Walt Disney World have taken their toll on attendance. Without an end in sight, as cases are still rising in Florida, we do not see high crowds returning to Walt Disney World.
Besides observing lower crowd levels as COVID-19 cases increase, the TouringPlans Travel Agency has seen an increase in cancelations as COVID-19 cases increase. The number of COVID-19 cases is a leading indicator of Walt Disney World attendance. It will take a downturn in COVID-19 cases before we see an increase in crowd levels.
This update is only refreshing August and September 2021 crowd levels. October will see guests visiting Walt Disney World for the 50th anniversary and fall break vacations. If cases are still high at the end of September we will be reducing our crowd level predictions for the rest of 2021.
Have any questions about the latest Crowd Calendar update? Let us know in the comments.