WDW Crowd Calendar Update: August and September 2021

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Trying to predict Crowd Levels has been been a challenge this year. In July it looked like we had turned the corner and things were returning to normal. Disney dropped the mask mandate; more attractions, restaurants, and hotels were opening; and attendance was up. Starting in August we have seen a decrease in wait times and crowd levels. We have been watching the data and it is time again to adjust our Crowd Calendar. It is typical for crowds to decrease as students return to school. Typically we don’t see the decrease until September. The charts below show the observed crowd levels for 2019 and 2021. The black line is the 2-week trend over time.




The Delta variance of COVID-19, rising cases, and the return of masks indoor at Walt Disney World have taken their toll on attendance. Without an end in sight, as cases are still rising in Florida, we do not see high crowds returning to Walt Disney World.

Blue bars show daily cases. The red line is the sum of cases over the last 7 days, divided by 7. Averages are used to reduce reporting differences. The orange line represents the percentage of Emergency Department (ED) visits with diagnosed COVID-19. Source: CDC.gov

Besides observing lower crowd levels as COVID-19 cases increase, the TouringPlans Travel Agency has seen an increase in cancelations as COVID-19 cases increase. The number of COVID-19 cases is a leading indicator of Walt Disney World attendance. It will take a downturn in COVID-19 cases before we see an increase in crowd levels.

This update is only refreshing August and September 2021 crowd levels. October will see guests visiting Walt Disney World for the 50th anniversary and fall break vacations. If cases are still high at the end of September we will be reducing our crowd level predictions for the rest of 2021.

Have any questions about the latest Crowd Calendar update? Let us know in the comments.

 

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Steve Bloom

By helping TouringPlans.com continue to reach the most accurate crowd level predictions, Steve finally found a way to meld his training in statistical analysis with a lifelong passion for Disney. He first visited the Magic Kingdom in 1972, just a few months after it opened. Now he enjoys frequent trips with his two kids. At age four his son insisted on wearing cowboy boots to reach the height requirement for Test Track, and his daughter believes that a smoked turkey leg and Dole Whip make a perfectly balanced meal. Even though she doesn't quite get it, Steve's wife is supportive of his Disney activities.

5 thoughts on “WDW Crowd Calendar Update: August and September 2021

  • August 12, 2021 at 10:58 pm
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    Is there any indication of COVID cases “in the bubble”? I would guess Disney is no forthcoming with that kind of data.

    Reply
    • August 13, 2021 at 9:20 am
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      Require vaccinations or a negative Covid test to entertain the parks, and there would see an uptick in attendance. My friends and I, a group to totaling about 16, who have big expensive plans for the 50th anniversary kick off, have had people fall off every week. At this point, we are close to cancelling too. But with proactive safety measures, we’d be a definite go.

      Reply
  • August 13, 2021 at 9:38 am
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    We’re supposed to be there next week. But with an unable to be vaccinated 11 year old, we may cancel. The rest of us are vaccinated.

    Reply
    • August 13, 2021 at 9:55 am
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      Right there with you. Planned a trip for my son’s 11th birthday (8/22) about 9 months ago. Figured that things would be *much* better at this point. Now we are facing the oh-so-fun choice of going and feeling terrified and irresponsible (even with filtered masks, N95s, and at home Abbott test kits, oh my!) or pulling the plug and devastating a kid whose childhood has been impacted by this for the past 17 months. Not the vacation I had in mind! Best of luck to you and yours 🙂

      Reply

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