This Crowd Calendar update is a full update going through September 2021. To make such a long-range forecast we are making some assumptions:
- Demand will stay low for Florida theme park travel
- Disney will keep capacity at low levels
- Capacity will slowly increase starting in November
- The risk of COVID-19 infection stays the same
- All health and safety measures stay in place
On August 26, 2020, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis called theme parks reopening a “success story”, and said “we think that the capacity can be increased.” We believe Disney is operating at a level lower than the government-mandated capacity levels, so there is room to increase park attendance. The day before DeSantis’s positive comments, Disney sent out notices to some Disney World cast members that their furloughs would be extended through November. Disney has also quietly pushed back the reopening of some resorts, suggesting that the demand for more hotel rooms is not there yet. To see all the current information on closures and cancellations due to COVID-19 go to touringplans.com/coronavirus.
Today Disney announced new discounts for travel through December 25, 2020. This is a sign that Disney is trying to attract more people to Walt Disney World. Without Disney calling more cast members to work, the new discounts are intended to fill the currently available hotel rooms.
We expect to see mostly 1s in the next six weeks. Weekends will be slightly busier than weekdays. Holiday times will be slightly higher than normal weekends. With our current assumptions, we do not believe any day in 2020 will have a crowd level above a 3. If conditions improve we expect to see the first 4s and 5s over spring break in 2021.