Disney World Crowd Report – June 1 to 7, 2014
Early June crowds at Walt Disney World have been surprisingly light. History tells us that this time of year brings above average crowds in the range of ‘6’ to ‘9’ on our scale. Instead, this past week we saw crowds at or below average levels. In some cases, well below average. In particular, attractions at Disney Hollywood Studios, Animal Kingdom and Epcot (in that order) have shown wait times significantly lower than expected.
Our theory is that some school districts have pushed back the last day of school to account for days lost due to weather, and that families have postponed or cancelled their visits to the parks as a result. Magic Kingdom, the park most likely to attract families with pre-school children is inherently less affected. It is just a theory but seems to be the most likely explanation.
What it means for visitors is that the greater the number of school days lost to weather between September and May, the lower the expected crowds will be in early June. If your child’s school board does not have to extend the school year, early June may make a great chance to plan a trip with lower crowds.
Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom |
7
|
6
|
Sunday was the first of many days last week when wait times came in lower than expected. Wait times at Disney Hollywood Studios hit a level ‘5’ on our scale despite hosting Star Wars Weekend. Magic Kingdom’s Extra Magic Hour evening kept the park open until 3:00am for resort guests but that didn’t push wait times higher than a level ‘6’ for most rides. Normally, a closing time of 1:00am would indicate large crowds but even Space Mountain only averaged 47 minutes (predicted 72). |
| Epcot |
5
|
4
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
7
|
5
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
6
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
7
|
6
|
Monday was the only day of the week when our resort-wide estimates hit the mark. All parks were within one index level and Hollywood Studios had the lowest crowd level again. Epcot’s Mission: Space (Orange) had an average wait time of 49 minutes between 10:00am and 5:00pm, a ’10’ on our scale and much higher than a normal day (we predicted 29 minutes). Wait times at other Epcot attractions were close to our predictions. |
| Epcot |
6
|
6
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
5
|
4
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
6
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
8
|
6
|
Both Disney Hollywood Studios and Magic Kingdom had wait times below predictions while Animal Kingdom missed by one and Epcot hit the mark. The Studios continues to host underwhelming crowds on weekdays, a trend that began in mid-may. Tuesday’s wait times at Star Tours and Great Movie Ride were basically non-existent all day (14 minute average) while Toy Story Mania averaged a measly 60 minutes. |
| Epcot |
7
|
7
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
6
|
3
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
6
|
7
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
7
|
6
|
Wednesday’s crowd at the Studios was even more surprising. History would tell us that because almost half of the largest U.S. school districts are finished school, crowds should be large. Instead, Disney Hollywood Studios saw some of the lowest wait times of the week on Wednesday. It is strange that the low crowds are focussed at The Studios. We see that although crowds at the other three parks are lower than expected, they are much more in-line with predictions. This may be because the Studios attractions appeal to older youth and those older youth may be less likely to miss school if the last day of school was pushed later into June. |
| Epcot |
5
|
4
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
8
|
3
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
5
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
7
|
6
|
Thursday’s crowds were similar, with all parks coming in lower than our predictions although we missed by a much smaller margin. Jungle Cruise averaged 39 minutes (predicted 41), Spaceship Earth 21 (predicted 22), Great Movie Ride 14 (predicted 15) and Kali River Rapids averaged 31 minutes (predicted 29). |
| Epcot |
5
|
4
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
5
|
3
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
6
|
4
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
6
|
5
|
Our resort-wide predictions rarely miss by more than two levels (less than 1% of the time) but Friday’s wait times were low enough across the board to pull the resort-wide crowd level to a ‘4’, three down from the ‘7’ we predicted. Good news for those of you in the parks, bad news for the statisticians. Even Disney Hollywood Studios which hosted Star Wars Weekends on Friday only reached a level ‘3’ on our scale, including an average wait time of only 18 minutes at Star Tours. This is the lowest crowd level recorded during Star Wars Weekends since 2009. |
| Epcot |
6
|
3
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
8
|
3
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
5
|
|
| WHAT WE THOUGHT |
WHAT WE SAW |
ANALYSIS | |
| Magic Kingdom |
5
|
5
|
The Studios wait times were even lower on Saturday. Perhaps the special Star Wars events were popular enough to (a) draw guests away from the attractions and/or (b) keep non-fans away from the park. Mark Hamill attended the festival this weekend for the first time in the event’s 18-year history so that surely had something to do with it. Regardless, we can’t remember ever having a day at the Studios during Star Wars Weekends with wait times that low. |
| Epcot |
5
|
3
|
|
| Hollywood Studios |
7
|
2
|
|
| Animal Kingdom |
7
|
5
|
|
| June 8 to 14, 2014 |
|---|
Disney Hollywood Studios continues to be a great choice during the week. Just as we have seen a dip in attendance while schools push ahead the last day of school we might see a bump in attendance when the majority of schools complete the school year. By the end of June, nearly 100% of the major school districts will be out of session and many of them will be on vacation.
To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.
To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.
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I’m in Indiana, and schools in my community were originally going to be out on June 1. Because of snow days, the last day here was June 5. I’m sure that has affected vacation plans for a little bit, but I’m sure later in June it will be back to nomral
What impact does a new ride opening have on overall crowd levels. My thinking here is that overall wait times are lower as there is more stuff to do. Since the index is not a reflection of actual crowd size but rather wait times, I guess that it should have some impact.
Similarly, what is the effect of the A&E M&G? Given its huge wait times, there might be quite a few people standing in line for it rather than doing other park attractions, resulting in shorter lines for them.
For the Anna and Elsa M&G, it really doesn’t take many people in line to make the wait hours-long. Like 300 people in line could make it a few hours. And that many people could be through something like the Little Mermaid ride in a short period of time