July 2019 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar Updates
Summer is officially here and July’s Crowd Calendar update is now live.
If you are tracking the crowd levels on your travel dates you most likely will not see a change as a result of this update. The number of days changing is lower than average. If you do see a change it is most likely a small one. This update only includes 15 changes greater than 2 points.
Magic Kingdom
Our Crowd Calendar at Magic Kingdom has done very well since Easter. The average error in that time period is 1 point which is our target error. When you consider that a 10% loss of capacity at two or more attractions can cause a 2-point swing, that is not bad. Inclement weather can lead to a 2-point miss as well and we have seen plenty of rainy days this spring. This update brings changes at Magic Kingdom that are small, infrequent, and downward on average. This is all good news for guests of the Magic Kingdom for the rest of 2019. We have overpredicted more than underpredicted in recent months, which is why we are seeing some small downward adjustments.
Epcot
Crowd levels at Epcot have been more unpredictable than Magic Kingdom since Easter. When we missed at Epcot it was usually an overprediction, which means that crowds are down on average. This update reflects that trend. You will see crowd levels unchanged or down slightly on most days as result of July’s update. There isn’t a lot new at Epcot these days so it is reasonable to expect crowds to be pretty stable for the rest of the summer and into the fall.
Hollywood Studios
Disneyland’s Star Wars: Galaxy Edge has been open for over a month and it has been interesting to observe the wait times at that park. The new land has been busy, but wait times across the rest of the resort have hit record lows. Overall, attendance is down. As we prepare for Hollywood Studios‘ version to open at the end of August we have to ask ourselves if we will observe a similar impact at Disney World. It is hard to imagine that wait times will hit record lows at this park as well, but this update does include some decreases. For whatever reason, it appears that we will not see the full impact of Galaxy’s Edge on crowd levels until the land opens its second headliner attraction, Rise of the Resistance. Currently, the opening date for Rise of the Resistance is unknown.
The week before Galaxy’s Edge opens will see some dramatic reductions on this update. Given what we saw at Disneyland and what we know about crowd control at the new land it seems likely that the week before it opens will be very lightly attended. We will see some limited previews of the new land, but despite some large school districts being off that week we now expect the park to see very light crowds.
Animal Kingdom
Primeval Whirl has not operated since June 14. Although it is not a super headliner like Expedition Everest or Flight of Passage it does entertain 1000 guests an hour on an average day. Magic Kingdom and Epcot have 30 or more attractions to occupy guests but Animal Kingdom only has about 15. When a park loses one-fifteenth of its hourly capacity it causes a significant impact on wait times. Because of that, the observed crowd level at Animal Kingdom since June 15 has been an average of two points higher than predicted. This update includes an adjustment for Primeval Whirl. If we get notice that Primeval Whirl is coming back online we will make adjustments again.
Our Crowd Calendar does not relate directly to park attendance and this Primeval Whirl situation is a good illustration of why that can be an advantage. If you visited Animal Kingdom since June 14 you would see wait times 10-20% higher than usual for this time of year. However, the actual number of people in the park on those days is probably about average. The walkways, restaurants, parking lots and common areas probably don’t feel any more crowded than usual but a touring plan that includes all the headliners will take you longer than the same day last year with the exact same attendance. In our opinion, it is more useful to know how long you will wait in line than to know how many people are in the park.
Got any questions for the stats gurus? Let us know in the comments.
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How often do you do crowd calendar updates? I’m curious to see how/if the crowd calendar predictions will change now that SWGE has opened.
We typically do an update each month. For September, we postponed the update so we could include data after Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opened. The plan was to do an update on September 15. Unforntatily, Hurricane Dorian caused many guests to shorten, cancel or postpone their vacations. The attendance rate at Walt Disney World August 30 – September 6 is more influenced by the Hurricane. That week’s data is kind of useless for our models. The next update will be October 1.
The last couple of years the park hours for MK over the last 2 weeks of December have been 8:00 AM with EMH at 7:00AM nearly every day. Do you expect this to be the case this December?
Yes. It is very likely that Disney will open the parks early. Hopefully, hours will be extended even more than the past years. September is going to 7am EMH for The Magic Kingdom and The Animal Kingdom, and 6am for Hollywood Studios. Disney is going to be busier the end of December than September.
Have you heard anything about using DAS at Galaxy’s Edge when it opens? Going 30 September now that it shows as a 4!
The Galaxy’s Edge’s attractions will support DAS.
https://disneyparksmomspanel.disney.go.com/question/no-fast-passes-available-galaxy-edge-opens-das-pass-396747/
Just updated my spreadsheet with these numbers for a Sept 29-Oct 4 trip and only minimal changes, which is great. I have three shots still at a CL1 day at Magic Kingdom just to say I’ve experienced one.
Big question which I hope has a very good answer is with either 3 or 4 parks having EMH each day, I’m hoping the EMH crowds at all four parks (including DHS) are going to be even lighter than usual. Clearly DHS is the target (and yes I plan to be there for rope drop), but with the other three parks also open for EMH, even that should taper DHS’s crowd a bit, shouldn’t it?
will
I totally agree with you. It is hard for most people to get to 8am EMH. 6am and 7am is going to be even harder for those guests. Having EMH every day is going to make it less special and spread out the guests who use morning EMH.
For morning people with park hopping the Extra, Extra Magic Hours is a huge benefit. For Hollywood Studios and its new FastPass+ Tiering, I would not use FastPass+ at Hollywood Studios. I would get FastPasses for the afternoon at a different park. Do Star Wars: Galaxy Edge one morning, and the rest of the park on a different day.
Steve:
🙂 Those are my exact plans for DHS, get in early, spend 6am-9am inside SWGE (well, plus Star Tours), then diddle around a few other attractions before heading to another park late morning where I will have my fastpasses. Kind of neat having a decent sized touring plan that *ends* at 9am! For MK there are a slew of CL1 days when there is MNSSHP, so hitting that park in multiple half-day tours without fastbasses, then hopping to other parks for the afternoon/evening with fastpasses.
The theory is good, and if practice turns out anywhere close, it is going to be a great trip. It is definitely a morning person friendly setup.
will
i’d really love to be able to do this, but as a family with 2 very small kids plus stroller, it’s honestly super stressful to go from park to park. we do have a hopper and will try to use it as we’re able, but the best we can do is follow a plan within a park. this is my first TP subscription and i’m going to try following as much as we can. i love your idea, wish we could do that more easily. maybe in the future.
Laura:
Been there, done that! Kids are now all graduated from college now, but do remember touring with small kids. Hang in there.
will
Laura-
With small kids, it is helpful to take a break. A nap and pool time can help everyone de-stress.
thanks will and steve. yes, our plan is to try that out this time, will be the first trip with doing the break thing. hoping we don’t miss out on too much if we can help it.
Those are my dates too. I’m confused about HS on Oct 1 though. Is it the change of month that makes it so much more crowded than the day before and the same day of the week the previous week or is there an event I’m forgetting? We have a Disney Jr breakfast reservation that day that I haven’t been able to move to any other day and it’s top priority for my kids.
So for a family with 4 little kids, I should stick to my plan of skipping HS all together since we are there the first week of Sept. ? A 10 scares me.
I feel if you can get into the park, and avoid Star Wars, the rest of the park will be manageable in the morning. Most people are going to head to Star Wars Galaxy Edge. We will be watching the crowd flow and report how it is going.
following
Hmmm, my plans (12 day trip in April/may 2020) were low on the initial planning then went up like 3 points average last month or so and now went back down an average 3 points. That’s on all the days and on all the parks. The article says I should not see big changes since only 15 changes were 2 points or more…
We will learn a lot about the impact of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge before your trip. Don’t be too tied to our predictions until 3-4 months before your trip. Having 12 days and using a touring plan you will be able to do everything you want.
Take a look at my blog post about crowd level and touring: https://touringplans.com/blog/2019/07/09/crowd-levels-and-touring/
we got slammed with the week after GE opens interrupting our what should have been extremely low crowds for labor day week. after having already moved things around twice, i had us at HS on thursday 9/5, a full week after GE opens, which had been sitting at a 7 forever, but suddenly is a 10?? but yet, that saturday, which i’d expect to be more crowded, is still at an 8? and several of my other days went up a point. what changed? i don’t believe park hours have changed or any new refurbishment news.
Star Wars: Galaxy Edge will be crowded, but the rest of the park will be manageable. In the morning the current Hollywood Studios is going to resemble a ghost town. I expect Disney is going to regret The 7am and 6am opening times in September.
let’s hope! our plan is to be there at 6am opening… so you would recommend we not see GE during that timeframe? if we see everything else, do you think we will be able to get into GE later in the day? thanks Steve! you guys really have saved my vacation from disaster.
i should clarify- should we still ride smuggler’s run during EEMH, then move to other things and come back to see the rest of GE later?
If Hollywood Studios is anything like Disneyland, it is best to skip Smuggler’s in the morning and go in the afternoon. The wait times will quickly rise, and then drop off in the 3rd hour. Then wait times will plateau between 30-60 minutes. To get on Smuggler’s run in the first 30 minutes, you will need to arrive at Hollywood Studios before 5 am.
At this point, this is all speculation. After the first few days, we will know if this is correct. We will have recommendations on touring strategies before your trip.
thanks again steve
Hi all – my crowd calendar for HS went from a 6 to a 10! I’m going on 9/12 though and expect it fo be nuts.
Any particular reason 9/12 is a 10 all day where dates just before and after have the normal lows in the early AM? Something special happening that day that I missed?
We are going this day as well. Would love to know why it went from a 6 to a 10!!
Sept 26 up to a 9 now, hope the weather cooperates otherwise not gonna be fun especially with new Fastpass Structure
It is very likely that late September’s crowd levels will go down with the next crowd calendar update. With Rise of the Resistance opening only a few months later, most people making a special trip to see Star War’s Galaxy Edge will wait. If you can do Extra, Extra, Magic Hours you could get all of the current attractions done before 9 am.
I had a few Crowd Level changes for my early December trip, but Hollywood Studios on the opening day of RotR was not one of them (December 5th). Is this expected to affect crowds at all? I thought this would have changed HS to be a ‘10’ crowd for the day.
It will. This update was supposed to be loaded earlier. The changed due to Rise of the Resistance will show up with the August update.
If Hollywood Studios is expected to have “very light crowds” the week before Galaxy’s Edge opens, why do Saturday and Sunday still rate as a “9” on the crowd calendar?
Unfortunately I don’t go because of the no smoking policy. I actually know a lot of family with members who smoke that now attend Universal Studios. The Food & Wine festival is going to be interesting with the no smoking section available.
if it makes things less crowded, you won’t hear me complain.