Walt Disney World Crowd Level Changes December 2014 to December 2015

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Average posted wait times (in minutes) between October 1 and December 4, 2014

Wait times are up at Magic Kingdom this Fall and we are refreshing the Crowd Calendar to reflect the new trend for the rest of 2014. In fact, Fall wait times are up across all parks compared to last year. Also, we’ve completed a complete review of school schedules and holidays, park schedules and travel trends for 2015 so you will see some updates throughout future dates as well. Despite the increases this Fall our crowd level numbers have gone down for much of 2015. This is because our predictions tend to be conservative the further into the future you go. Now that 2014 is coming to an end, we can be a little more definite about our crowd projections next year.

Crowd trends are dynamic at Disney World as they are in travel generally so these new projections may (and likely will) change. Use the calendar numbers as a guideline to plan your trip and if you have a travel date in mind, click Track This Day to get notified of changes.

Below is a list of the major changes by month.

 

Crowd Calendar Updates By Month
Dates Here’s What’s New
Dec 4-20 Magic Kingdom waits are up, so goes the crowd level for December. We especially noticed an increase to crowd levels on Saturdays when the park hosts extra magic hour evenings in between days with operating hours shortened by Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Parties. Lots of new ‘5’s and ‘6’s at Magic Kingdom, up from ‘2’s and ‘3’s. Pre-Christmas estimates at Epcot have gone up as well, look for Dec 20-21 going up by three levels to ‘7’ and ‘9’.
Dec 21-31 No major changes
Jan 1-14 A mix of changes to Hollywood Studios in response to some day-to-day variations we’ve noticed. Some ‘9’s and ’10’s have become ‘7’s and ‘8’s while some other have gone up a point or two. If there is an exception to the uptrend Animal Kingdom is it. We have a streak of lowering by two or more levels between Jan 1-13 at that park.
Jan 15-31 Our post-Martin Luther King Jr Day predictions were high last year so this Jan 21-22 sees some lowering by 4 levels at Magic Kingdom, and by 3 at The Studios and Animal Kingdom. Epcot remains stable with a few minor bumps.
Feb 1-14 No major increases. Several days at The Studios and Animal Kingdom were lowered, in line with similar levels we saw last year.
Feb 15-28 Stable numbers for Presidents Week and Mardi Gras, still ‘8’s and above although the good news is that post holiday numbers have dropped, likely due to the synchronization of the two holidays.
Mar 1-14 Some early March predictions have dropped at The Studios and Animal Kingdom, while Epcot and Magic Kingdom remain as is.
Mar 15-30 No major changes
Apr 1-14 Again, we’re seeing some lowering of crowd levels post-holiday. Easter week remains high at all parks but the week after is lower than before, especially at Magic Kingdom and The Studios. This follows from our collection of school holiday schedules – 98% of schools are back in session starting April 13.
Apr 15-30 Almost no changes to Magic Kingdom during this period, elsewhere some small adjustments.
May – December Other large changes to the calendar include some July days at Epcot increasing by 2 or 3 levels; lower numbers in late August and early September; and higher numbers for Thanksgiving and Christmas 2015.

 

If you are planning to visit a park whose crowd level has changed we encourage you to review your touring plan if you have not already done so. Also, make sure to re-optimize your plan every so often to ensure it uses the latest estimates of wait times.

For more information of what to do if the crowd level changes for your travel dates click here.

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

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