WDW Crowd Calendar Update: October and November 2021 Again

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Typically we don’t do a Crowd Calendar update just a week after an update. On October 7, we lowered crowd levels. After having two months of very low crowds, and no significant bump in wait times for the WDW 50th Anniversary we assumed that we would not see higher crowds until Thanksgiving. We are reverting our crowd predictions after having a week of higher crowds this week, especially at Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios.

What Went Wrong (We Think)

Fred’s blog post addresses this question. Our goal is to have the most accurate Crowd Calendar. We are the only Crowd Calendar that uses quantifiable data to generate and evaluate the accuracy. We try to be transparent and we publish actual crowd levels even if we get them wrong. We do not control the crowd levels, we just monitor and report on them.

Prior to the pandemic, October was a popular time to visit Walt Disney World. Typically the weather becomes more moderate and about 25% of schools have a fall break during October, with Columbus Day week being the most popular week for a fall break. Even for schools that don’t have an official fall break, about 40% of schools have Columbus Day off. This makes a good week to pull students out of school for a vacation since they will only miss four days of classes. We minimized the impact of fall breaks this year as we had seen less travel in August and September. Florida’s lower COVID-19 numbers seem to be making people more comfortable traveling.

What To Do If Crowd Levels Are Wrong

You can have an excellent day in the parks regardless of the crowd level. The TouringPlans Lines app dynamically updates based on conditions in the parks. Re-optimizing plans throughout the day will create the optimal plan regardless of the crowd level. To be clear, the prediction for the crowd level will not change but the predictions for the wait times on your plan will change. This is true every day of the year. Every five minutes we refresh our predictions for wait times but the figures in the Crowd Calendar are updated manually on an ad hoc basis.

As always, we stand behind the quality of our product and all the benefits that you get for your subscription, however if you are interested in a refund, please email webmaster@touringplans.com.

 

Have any questions about this update? Let us know in the comments.

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Steve Bloom

By helping TouringPlans.com continue to reach the most accurate crowd level predictions, Steve finally found a way to meld his training in statistical analysis with a lifelong passion for Disney. He first visited the Magic Kingdom in 1972, just a few months after it opened. Now he enjoys frequent trips with his two kids. At age four his son insisted on wearing cowboy boots to reach the height requirement for Test Track, and his daughter believes that a smoked turkey leg and Dole Whip make a perfectly balanced meal. Even though she doesn't quite get it, Steve's wife is supportive of his Disney activities.

11 thoughts on “WDW Crowd Calendar Update: October and November 2021 Again

  • October 15, 2021 at 7:48 pm
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    Yeah, you probably should have known better – your credibility just took a hit for sure.

    Reply
  • October 15, 2021 at 9:30 pm
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    It is a strange and unpredictable time to be modeling data for.
    You’re doing fine, keep up the good work.

    Reply
  • October 15, 2021 at 10:16 pm
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    Really not happy about this. I changed my plans around based on the previous update.

    Reply
  • October 15, 2021 at 10:45 pm
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    Agree with Ferret: I will also cut you some slack in these very crazy times. And, I still trust you more than anything I would hear from The Disney Marketing Machine! A subscription to your information is a very great value.

    Reply
    • October 16, 2021 at 12:07 am
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      Agreed. Very good value indeed! Stick to the plan and optimize…that’s the best weapon you’ve got.

      Reply
  • October 16, 2021 at 2:46 am
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    As a travel agent I saw this coming late last year. My bookings have been off the charts for Oct-Dec with twice as many bookings as usual. This, December is going to be crazy busy… BEYOND what the charts can even fathom IMO.

    Reply
  • October 16, 2021 at 6:36 am
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    We’ll be heading to WDW next week for an extended stay while renovations are being done on our house. I’m glad to have this updated info now so I can adjust our plans if necessary. I still believe you’re the most reliable source for predicting crowd levels and appreciate your openness about your process. I can’t even begin to imagine how difficult it has been to predict crowd levels since the parks reopened, but am grateful that you keep trying – and also very curious to see what Disney’s crowd levels look once Genie launches. (Can’t believe they stole your product either.)

    Reply
  • October 16, 2021 at 8:33 am
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    I’m wondering if the announcement of the start of Genie+ and Lightning Lane on October 19 has had a significant impact. Perhaps a lot of annual pass holders are getting in last rides on Rise of the Resistance and other major attractions before they have to pay $20 for one ride. Between Lightning Lane and Genie+, a family of four could easily spend an extra $140 per day for rides. Makes sense annual pass holders may be squeezing in one last trip.

    Reply
  • October 16, 2021 at 9:00 am
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    Even if you were off on these crowd levels, and predicting in this pandemic is not easy, a subscription still offered me the ability to optimize my plan. I can take data that is maybe 5 min old and use it to adjust my touring style. My subscription still saves me time in line.

    Reply
  • October 17, 2021 at 10:15 am
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    The lack of normalcy in the crowd levels since the pandemic certainly makes predicting them very challenging. You all are doing the best you—or anyone—can with the data you have. On top of that, you are honest and open about your conclusions and process, and quick to respond to changing data and trends. You’re doing great work! Touring Plans has saved me a lot of time since I started using it, and I’ll continue to subscribe for every trip.

    Reply
  • October 18, 2021 at 11:48 am
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    I am here and I feel the crowds are the worst I have seen in October. You can not control the weather, crowd, or change in peoples minds. I appreciate you & all that your team does to try to keep numbers correct.

    Reply

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