What Is Happening with Genie+ Pricing at WDW?
Last week, we celebrated the birthday of Genie+ with OH SO MANY articles and analytics. But one thing I wasn’t yet ready to present was any data about variable Genie+ pricing. It was just so new! And it still is. But we’re starting to accumulate some data. I don’t think we’re anywhere near being able to predict how much Genie+ is going to cost, because Disney is obviously still playing around with pricing. But I can let you in on a little of my thinking and analyzing to see what we can find out together.
Level 1: Genie+ Prices vs Ticket Price
The first thing that would make logical sense would be if the price of Genie+ is tied to one-day ticket cost. Disney has already priced these days out based on what they expect from crowds and how they want to manipulate demand. So maybe, maybe Genie+ prices will track with those ticket prices.
HA! Just kidding. That would make entirely too much sense. Obviously it can’t be that easy. These two lines don’t track. At all. Genie+ price is just 100% not tied to ticket prices, not one tiny bit.
Level 2: Genie+ Price vs Crowd Level
Now we’re digging a little deeper and maybe cheating a bit because we’re mixing Disney data and TouringPlans data. I don’t think any of us are thinking that Disney execs are peeking at our crowd calendar and basing their pricing decisions on what we’re predicting. But … Disney has their own predictions and knowledge of such things. And maybe our predictions are close to theirs. If so, maybe they’re basing Genie+ pricing on those crowd levels.
Well, I think we can say that this is one step in the right direction at least. These lines are at least … moving along in the same general direction. They’re not on top of each other, but they’re tracking. Does this mean that if the crowd level jumps to 9, the price of Genie+ will jump to $25? Well … maybe. Or if the crowd level goes down to a 2, will the price of Genie+ drop to $5? Absolutely not. Small data set. And as we explore the next chart, we’ll get into some of the reasons this might be slightly misleading.
Level 3: Genie+ Price vs Average Posted Wait Time
We can get even more granular by looking at the data behind the crowd level, which are those posted wait times. If the price tracks with crowd levels, should it not also track with posted wait times? Let’s talk some math here before we look at the results. The average posted wait on the graph below takes every posted wait time from every attraction throughout the entire day and then averages them all together. There is a massive amount of data behind this graph.
Well, hello there, overlapping lines. This is even more remarkably correlated than what we saw before. You might see this graph and think to yourself “Disney is GENIUS!” They pick a price the night before, and it totally exactly predicts what the average posted wait time will be the next day! Tomorrow, if they price Genie+ at $22, we can expect a resort-wide average posted wait time of 35 minutes. Done, no more predictions needed.
Alright, you trusting graph-reader, you. Let me introduce you to the mind of a skeptic. You see, this overlap is actually too good. And that’s because we’ve drilled down into two data points that are both … controlled by Disney. You know who prices Genie+? Disney. You know who determines posted wait times? Also Disney. They could make this graph look like whatever they wanted it to. Now, it’s unlikely that Disney is checking their average posted wait time throughout the day and manipulating it until it closely tracks with the Genie+ price for the day. That would be a bit bonkers. But the point is that we can’t really use one to predict the other, because both can be manipulated.
Level 4: Genie+ Price vs Average Actual Wait Time
What’s something that Disney can’t control (as much)? Actual wait times. The posted wait times that they decide upon will, to some extent, impact human behavior and therefore change actual wait times. But this is a more realistic comparison. These actual wait times are the ones recorded in the Lines app while in the parks. Again, lots of data here!
Less pretty, and that’s a good thing. I think we’re starting to get to the point where we’re learning some interesting things. Posted wait times were slowly decreasing on the whole from the 12th to the 24th. But actual wait times are dropping more. Genie+ prices aren’t dropping as quickly. And so at the beginning of this time period, Genie+ was a relative “value” compared to average actual wait times. But since about the 19th, Genie+ prices have gotten “expensive” compared to average actual wait times. Any time orange line is above blue line, Genie+ is a comparative value. Any time that flips, it’s more expensive. All based on those actual wait times. So by this view, Disney hasn’t been dropping Genie+ prices by perhaps as much as they should have.
Level 5: Genie+ Price vs Posted Wait Time Inflation
I’ve written before about posted wait time inflation. If you’re not familiar with the concept … you should be. Go check out this article for a thorough explanation coupled with an in-parks test. Disney is motivated to make the posted wait time higher than what they think you’ll actually wait. For a number of reasons. Mainly, psychology. Humans that wait less than what you tell them they’ll wait are happy humans. But they could also be motivated by, say, wanting more people to purchase a line-skipping capability. So if we got way deep into skeptic-land, we’d guess that the more expensive Genie+ gets, the more motivated Disney will be to inflate those posted wait times.
To measure inflation, in this case, we’re going to take the posted wait time divided by the actual wait time, for every actual wait time we’ve gotten in the Lines app on each of these days. Higher numbers = more inflation.
Well, hey, it’s good for skepticism to be proven wrong sometimes. Still a little crazy that on some days the posted wait time is averaging double of the actual wait time. But the higher Genie+ prices absolutely do not mean that wait time inflation goes up to induce more folks into purchasing Genie+. Wait time inflation is just always high 🙂
What Does This All Mean?
- Genie+ pricing is still relatively unpredictable. As a general rule, if the crowd level is expected to be lower, the price will be lower. If the crowd level is supposed to be higher, the price will be higher. But there is no exact “Crowd Level 8 = $XX Genie+ Price” equation.
- Demand has already decreased for Genie+ since it’s no longer available to purchase with your vacation package. Availability is way up. Expect Disney to keep dialing in how much they can charge for this without totally eliminating all demand. It’s better for them to sell Genie+ at $50/day to 5,000 people than it is for them to sell Genie+ at $15/day to 15,000 people. More money, and more reservations available for those that choose to pay.
- Make no mistake – Genie+ can still save you an absolutely large amount of time compared to standby. Especially if your touring style plays nicely with stacking.
Do you have your own personal “breaking point” for how much you’d be willing to pay for Genie+? How much time would you have to save if you were going to pay $20 or $25 per person per day? Let us know in the comments!
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We are 5 heading to Disney during Christmas break. I bought G+ for our entire trip (6 park days) on the very last day when that was still an option. After dropping about $3k on tickets another $450 seemed like a worthwhile insurance policy to save us some time, irritation and standing around. I probably wouldn’t have done it if we were those people that go to Disney every year, but as people with kids that will probably only go this once while they are little (11 and 7), it felt like a very reasonable expense. Now if we didn’t get it in advance and had to do it now for $650….honestly I’d still probably do it, I’d just be mad I didn’t do it when it was cheaper!
The “fast pass” system – express passes – at Universal is so much easier to use – they are different prices depending on how busy they predict the parks to be. And, unless it’s changed, you buy the express tickets and can enter the express lane of each participating ride/show etc at whatever time you want – either once per ticket or multiple times per ticket depending on what express pass you purchased. Now isn’t that so much easier! Having said that we have yet to purchase Genie+ and have managed without. I absolutely love WDW but it’s not as magical as it was in the past. There is so much to see and do – who wants to be glued to their phone trying to book the next experience and miss what’s going on all around!
I see this point made often, but as is so often true in all aspects of life, you get what you pay for. Express Passes cost anywhere from $80 per person per day for a one park EP in the value season to $280 per person per day for a two-park EP. As it is much more expensive than Disney’s Genie+, it should be easier to use.
The only thing that seems consistent is Genie+ price is a good reference for what each Individual Lightning Lane will be (so far). So instead of waiting until 7am to find out what the prices are, you already know. I’ve been tracking so can at least know if Genie+ is $X then the Individuals will be $Y. Keeps me from having to make a 7am decision to purchase or not.
We just returned from WDW 10/15- 10/22. We took 3 generations of our family on the trip – kids and grandkids. I have been to WDW about 16 times over the last 30+ years so you could say we have been big fans. But I will probably not go again. I paid a small fortune on this trip. The first day we went to Animal Kingdom and did not buy G+. I quickly realized that without G+ our days would be spent mostly waiting in lines – so the tickets would have little valve you for my family. After that I purchased G+ each day for the rest of our stay – cost was $22/day/person Epcot, $15 /d/p MK and $20 /d/p HS. Without doing that this would been a pretty frustrating vacation. As it was we never were able to purchase a ILL for Cosmic rewind and standby lines were not available the day we were at Epcot. Disney rules seem to change – you can buy genie+ at Midnight and make your 1st reservation at 7 AM, but ILL you can only buy when the Park opens. Several blogs indicated both occurred at the same time. MK was the easiest to use G+ because they are able to spread the reservations out over several headliner rides – at the other parks this is not the case so you have to be on top of it. The Disney App is a C+ at best. I felt I spent my first day of Genie Plus service just learning the system – so a couple of hundred $ just to learn.
I had purchased a Park Hopper pass but never used it and probably would not purchase in the future. Disney has changed. I actually would skip Animal Kingdom in the future, not enough headliner attractions for the cost. The race you through Kilimanjaro Safaris so fast anymore you do not get to see anything.
I already reached my breaking point. If I knew all I know now I would never book a trip to Disney! November will be our first trip and the last one. The park tickets are already expensive now we need to pay more to wait less. What don’t they reduce the number of parks tickets to lower the crowd level? We know why they’re all about $$$$
I don’t like the uncertainty in a Disney trip crowd level projections aren’t always right you just don’t know what to expect
You pay genie+ and then at 7 am you can’t book because of a general IT glitch. Enough is enough!
Disney never again!
For our family – G+ is a NO. We just returned from our 1st trip to DW (Oct. 12-23); it may be our 1st and last trip if Disney doesn’t change course from the G+ & ILL model /pay extra to get better treatment. Once in a life-time vacationers should not have to pay even more out of pocket to enjoy their park day. I knew a lot about G+ going into the trip, and we chose not to use it because we were already paying a CRAZY amount for basic park tickets (8 day passes) and to top it off – we were paying Canadian/US exchange – 38% – Ouch! We decided to rope drop every morning and use Becky’s EE suggestions instead. The plan worked for us, but we noticed – especially on busy days – by late morning the G+ users start flooding through and the standby lines came to a virtual stand-still. I was surprised by the negative emotion that rose up in us and our kids as we stood in the standby line watching the river of LLers being rushed through – with only a small % of standby permitted. LLers had virtually no wait which inflated SB considerably. For instance, after already waiting 30 in SB, we waited 30 min. more to move the last few feet to a Safari vehicle our 1st morning at AK b/c the cast member was rushing through only LLers; he was literally calling down to far-off, distant LLers for them to hurry along/run – instead of simply allowing a few families from SB to go through. It was infuriating. The ratio improved a bit after that day, but at best it was 70% LL to 30% SB (98% to 2% at worst). G+ has created a significant divide in the parks of “haves” and “have nots”, which left a bad taste in our mouths (and we are shareholders)! I refuse to use the G+ system out of principle. Disney is pricing too many families out of the market which is really disappointing.
A number that Disney definitely knows, but that we cannot ever see for ourselves, is the number of people that have booked park reservations for a given day.
With the strong correlation shown above between G+ pricing and wait times, and with wait times largely being a function of the number of guests in the park, maybe the total number of park reservations booked is driving the G+ price-of-the-day.
Unfortunately, reservations aren’t a great predictor. That’s mostly because even when reservations are totally sold out (which happens often), the resulting crowd level could be a 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10. We’ve seen all of them. That means very different posted wait times, and also different Genie+ prices. All on “sold-out” park reservation days.
I didn’t say “sold out,” I said total number of park reservations booked. 🙂
The fact that a “sell-out” crowd can be anywhere from CL5 to CL10 tells us that not all sell-outs are created equal, as they are subject to manipulation by Disney as well.
My hypothesis can’t actually be tested, since Disney’s not going to tell us how many actual reservations have been made for a given day. But it could explain why the G+ price appears to predict the day’s wait times.
I agree with you Andy. Historical park reservation data for each specific park, coupled with the historical wait time data and considering the extra park hopping visitors, must have increased Disney’s accuracy when predicting per-park attendance numbers for the purpose of calculating the pre-set posted wait times for each day.
I think you are closer to being able to predict the price than you think, Becky. I have a feeling there is some higher-up at Disney who is reading this article and exclaiming, “That darn Becky Gandillon! She’s got it figured out already!”
Ha, well thanks for the vote of confidence 🙂
Could G+ pricing be tied to park demographics?
More high spenders expected in the gates…
the higher Genie+ pricing needs to be for the system to stay reasonably functional.
So maybe not dependent on crowd levels but what mix the crowd is expected to be.
I’m past my breaking point. I literally just cancelled my next Disney vacation today. It’s still on your vacation planner. I have to go in and delete that. Unless something changes with Disney management we are not going back and we used to go at least twice per year but Disney doesn’t care. You do realize that Disney is basically eliminating annual passes?