Disney World Crowd Calendar Update for Mid-April 2021
This Crowd Calendar update has updates going through 2022. For the rest of April and summer, the crowd levels are adjusted based on recent activity. Even with Spring Break being over, crowd levels have increased. Park Pass reservations have become more difficult for guests to acquire. More Disney cast members have been called back to work. We have seen more backstage areas being used for extended queues, and ride vehicles being loaded with more guests. This week we have seen more dining reservations and Park Pass reservations becoming available. There has been no official word from Disney, but these are all signs that Disney has or is preparing to increase attendance. As U.S. vaccination rates and Disney cast member vaccination rates increases, so will crowd levels.
March 2021
Looking back at March data, wait times at attractions that are running at 100% capacity are significantly lower than pre-pandemic times. Social distancing rules have caused attraction queues to extend beyond the attractions’ entrances. The extended queues wind through the parks, going through closed attractions and restaurants, and even going backstage. Disney has been very creative in finding room for the extended queues. 
April and May 2021
We expect crowd levels to remain at current levels. Weekends will be busier than during the weeks, as locals visit the parks. Wait times are a bit higher than March, but still manageable.
Summer 2021
We expect Disney will be at 50% capacity by this summer. With an increase in capacity, we expect more experiences to open up. Disney has not announced dates, but we expect the Festival of the Lion King show at Animal Kingdom will be returning this summer. The first nighttime spectacular at Disney World will likely be Harmonious at EPCOT. Disney will still be limiting capacity. Demand will higher than available. If you are planning on visiting this summer, make your plans now.
Fall 2021
We hope and expect that Holiday parties will return to the Magic Kingdom in 2021. The Crowd Calendar is assuming the Magic Kingdom will close early for parties and party days typically have guests avoiding the Magic Kingdom. Party dates have not been released, and the party schedule we are using is based on prior years. October 1, 2021, will be the start of “The World’s Most Magical Celebration” an 18-month celebration of Walt Disney World’s 50th anniversary. Disney will use the celebration and new attractions in marketing to encourage people to return to Walt Disney World.
Winter 2021-2022 and beyond
We expect that Thanksgiving, Christmas, and into 2022 will have crowds similar to crowd levels prior to COVID-19. Many schools are preparing for a return to normal in-person schedules this fall. Domestic and International travel should return back to pre-pandemic levels. Bob Chapek, Disney’s CEO, said he believes the tightened pandemic safety rules won’t be needed by 2022.
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Is there an anticipation that FP+ might return by 2022 or will all rides continue to be Standby?
Disney hasn’t said one way or another. It’s a Small World recently got a new FastPass+ sign, so that’s something. I do think whatever Disney does with FP will include a paid component.
What is the basis for your rating scale on the crowd calendar? Is the 4 out of 10 for 4/30/21 based on the number of people attending when there’s a max of regular capacity or max of reduced capacity? It’s confusing.
Park crowd levels are based on average wait times at select attractions. On a crowd level “4” day in 2021, will have similar wait times as other “4” days in 2020 and 2019.
If you go to an attraction page, like Space Mountain, you can the average peak wait times by park crowd level. Using a Touring Plan will help you avoid the highest crowds on any day.
Do you know when UO crowd calendars will be updated? VelociCoaster is currently showing a 0-minute wait for June 10. Thanks!
Universal Crowd Calender will be updated in the next few days.
OK…thanks.
We are unable to make a trip this year and have been very envious of the lower wait times and the walk arounds we watch with the crowds looking so low. The next trip we have booked is for 10 days late January into early February. Do you think this is the best time to go if we are really trying for the lowest crowds possible? Thanks for the info!
Yes, late January and early February will have the lowest crowd in 2022, until September. Weather can be anywhere between cold & wet and awesome.
I’m curious about the huge jump in crowd levels for mid-November – post Veteran’s Day but before Thanksgiving. Is this based on predicted return of holiday parties, a Disney marathon, or other event?
We do expect parties to return. The Magic Kingdom on days between parties will have higher crowd levels. If parties don’t return crowd levels will change. We don’t expect any Run Disney events in 2021.
I booked July 2021 for a week 20-27. My family and my first time. We are from LA and familiar with Disneyland but really looking forward to this trip. Then one of the first things I read in the book was maybe not to go right now if this is your first time. I guess I should have dug a little deeper before booking. The trip is refundable but not the airfare. Oh well. In a way I am looking forward to more crowds because I feel with more crowds might mean more shows-parades-restaurants etc. open, and longer hours.
Glad I didn’t book my park reservations yet. The days we are visiting in May just jumped to higher crowd numbers. UGH
We are booked Dec 18-27 and I guess can’t say I’m surprised crowds jumped to 8,9 and 10 for the most part. We are coming from Canada so fingers crossed we even can come by Christmas. We have never visited during the Holiday season and always thought we’d go late November early December, but we really want to go away for the actual holidays. I know it will be very busy that’s why we plan to follow the touring plans and hope that fast pass is back by then. We would be rope dropping most days and taking it easy in the afternoons and evenings. I have to say we are worried what we are in for, but at the same time it will be a little over 2 years when we go since last trip to WDW (we have gone every year since 2012 when our kid was a toddler) usually in the summer/Fall time frame.
We haven’t booked our park reservations yet, do you think there is any danger of the days selling out soon? I’m hoping to find more info on traveling over Christmas on your site. School is out from Dec 17 where we live and do I imagine that the week leading up to Christmas will be busier than if it was out say Dec 22?
I would not expect that Park Pass reservations would not start to fill up until 3-4 months before your visit. As soon as you have your tickets you should make your Park Pass reservations. Atleast make reservations for Hollywood Studios and the Magic Kingdom, as they fill up first.
We are currently collecting school schedules for the largest 125 school districts in the U.S. This data will be incorporated in the next Crowd Calendar update. With Christmas being a Saturday, the last day of school before the winter break will be spread between the 17th and 24th. This will make the winter break go from December 18 to January 9. This is a bit longer than normal and will spread the holiday crowds across more days.
I saw the week AFTER new years go to ten! Is that normal? I figure people would be back at school and work and would lower crowds after Monday Jan 3rd, no?
It really depends on when schools go back in January. We currently acquiring more than 100 school districts’ schedules and will make needed adjustments in the next update. You can take a look at the Historic Crowd Levels and see that in prior years the crowd levels do not drop off immediately on January 2.
Thank you for the info for Jan 22!
I’m going to miss these empty Covid park days so much. ;-; I had three awesome trips this last year and was able to be completely spontaneous with rides and walk right into sit-down restaurants. Looks like when I go in 2022, I’ll actually need to use the Lines app for more than just logging actual wait times…
Ahhh! Presidents’ Day week 2022 jumped back up big time. I figured it was coming but I was also crossing my fingers it might not. Oh well, that why we have touring plans. Thanks for all the hard work.