Disneyland Crowd Calendar Updates For November, December 2015

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Wait times are up at Disneyland and there are plenty of reasons to believe that the crowdedness will continue through the rest of 2015. Season of the Force comes to Disneyland on November 16 which will push wait times significantly higher at Star Tours and Space Mountain in the short term. In addition, Disneyland has added multiple parades and fireworks between November 21 and 28 which means they expect crowds to be significantly higher than usual.

Taking this into account as well as the increase in wait times we have seen in fall 2015, today we are pushing updates to the Disneyland Crowd Calendar between now and the end of 2015.

As always, the crowd calendar is subject to change and we expect that further updates to the calendar may be required for dates in 2016 once we see how wait times play out during the rest of 2015.

 

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

17 thoughts on “Disneyland Crowd Calendar Updates For November, December 2015

  • November 11, 2015 at 10:26 am
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    Are times for this weekend changing? Wishing you guys had pushed this out earlier.

    Reply
    • November 11, 2015 at 1:55 pm
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      Thanks Sarah, we know that earlier is always better but we needed to make sure that we trusted what our predictions were telling us. Even now, we expect that further changes will be required in the coming few weeks and months. We expect changes to the wait times themselves to appear within a few days.

      Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 12:19 pm
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    Does anyone with more experience know how Season of the Force will affect the rest of Disneyland, i.e. the non-Tomorrow Land areas? I would expect that initially Star Tours and Space Mountain will be extra busy, but will that spill over to other parts of the park? I have never attended during a special event such as this.

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    • November 11, 2015 at 1:54 pm
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      With any new event like Season of the Force the effect on the park is completely unknown. We have seen events like this that pushed wait times much higher across the resort and other events that had no effect whatsoever. However, if I had to guess I would say that Space Mountain and Star Tours will experience 50-75% increases in wait times but other attractions will be unaffected.

      Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 1:12 pm
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    When will the new updated ride wait times be available? I have a trip to replan for that’s in a couple of days. Nothing like having your level 2 and 3 days change to all 9’s. That was a major shock.

    Reply
    • November 11, 2015 at 1:51 pm
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      Alicia, your current touring plan will work well no matter the wait times. Many people find that when the wait times go up across the board, the optimal touring plan doesn’t change much. I would keep your plan as is then update it while in the park from your mobile device if possible.

      Updates to the wait times will take place over the next few days.

      Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 1:33 pm
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    I am beyond disappointed in this website as it is a huge jump as the above poster stated. Actually these crowd levels are not new to the fall as I have had these wait times three years ago in September.

    Reply
    • November 11, 2015 at 1:49 pm
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      Thanks for the feedback Holly, it pains us to have to raise the crowd levels because we know how many of our users trust the numbers we publish far in advance but in this case we had little choice. Even Disney itself was not prepared for the surge of guests that flocked to the Disneyland Resort between August and November, in numbers that we have never seen for this time of year.

      Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 2:54 pm
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    I know this isn’t an exact science but the fact you guys released these numbers less than a week before this event when it been announced on Disney’s site for over a month is very frustrating. We use your site to plan our trip but I don’t think we will be renewing our subscription again.

    Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 5:00 pm
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    I’m not sure I’m buying your explanation. I read about Season of the Force months ago. Are you telling me you guys didn’t know about this? And if you did, you didn’t think to estimate crowds at a safe 5? The least you could have done was to put an asterisk by the day and say “There is a special event planned for this week, and while we can’t be sure of crowds, you may want to be aware of this.”

    I should have known your calendar was less than accurate (or even close to accurate) when you had Veterans’ Day listed as a 2 (which you then moved up to an 8). How can you say you didn’t know Veteran’s Day would be crowded? Every Disney-related site on the web says it’s been that way for years. Not cool, Robert Frost.

    Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 5:35 pm
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    The predicted crowd levels have been off all summer, early fall, and currently. If I was a total newbie and made the mistake of basing my trip around your crowd level predictions, I would be beyond irritated and very disappointed. The only thing that has been worth the subscription price is the in-park chat which does contain useful information. As a couple of posters have said, there must have been awareness of crowds surrounding Veterans’ Day and Season of the Force. IMO your crowd predictions are just not worth the subscription price and I am not sure I will be renewing.

    Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 7:03 pm
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    I may be beating a dead horse, but I just can’t tell you how disappointed I am by the change in crowd levels posted recently. I literally planned our entire trip around the crowd levels being predicted as low for next week. I also know it’s not a perfect science, but you sell your crowd calendar on the basis of having the best methods for predicting crowds, and that is what has sold me year after year. I used the crowd calendar last year for the same purpose, and it was pretty accurate. The predictions didn’t change. Now, to go from a crowd level of 2 on Wednesday to 9 at Disneyland – how can your equations have been THAT off?? This changes our vacation completely, for the bad. I avoid high attendance days for a reason. My heart sunk when I read the website today. I truly feel like our vacation is ruined. I would have planned our vacation very differently had this information been available earlier. I am SO disappointed in your crowd calendar.

    Reply
  • November 11, 2015 at 7:10 pm
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    We appreciate the feedback everyone, even if it is critical. We would all agree that the updating process needs to be faster. Hopefully, these new estimates will end up being an overreaction to the trends we have seen in the fall.

    Reply
  • November 12, 2015 at 8:46 am
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    Love how the corwds during my trip have jumped from 2s, 3s and 4s to 7s, 8s and 9s. I’ve used TP for a few years now and as the years go by, the crowd predictions get less and less accurate. I even recommended it to a few of my friends who used it and were less than impressed at how inaccurate the crowd predictions were. I will not be renewing my subscription for them after it expires and will not recommend it to anyone.

    Reply
    • November 12, 2015 at 8:51 am
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      Also, DLR crowds are ALWAYS high on the weekends yet you continue to predict them at a 3 or 4. Then when the actual data comes out, they’re always a 7 or 8. I don’t understand why you continue to predict low crowds when the weekends are ALWAYS crowded.

      Reply
  • November 12, 2015 at 11:44 am
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    I agree with everyone here. I’ve seen increasing issues with WDW crowd predictions as well (albeit, generally not as drastic as the issues in this case). Numbers are great, but you also need to look at the big picture with some common sense. I’m finding decreasing value in TP overall.

    Reply
  • November 12, 2015 at 11:58 am
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    With the two day touring plan with children puts princess meet and greet at number six on the list. However the description of the event says to get in line 15 before official park opening. Now that you have predicted next week as hell , what should one do to meet the princesses.? I also wanted to say that even if you doubled crowd numbers from 3 to 6 due to fall increase you are saying Star Wars makes it go up three more which could have been posted much sooner. I wish I had seen how much was involved with Star Wars sooner and I could have cancelled the trip.

    Reply

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