Disneyland Crowd Calendar updates went live today. So, if you are tracking any days, you may get a notice that crowd levels have changed. Most of the big changes are drops in crowd level at Disney California Adventure Park between mid June and the end of September. DCA crowd levels were all over the map in the second and third quarter of 2022 with drastic swings between crowd level ‘3’ and ’10’ in short three-day stretches. The Disneyland summer promo for California Residents drove a lot of those high levels during the week. If another summer promo is announced this year these crowds numbers will have to be adjusted.
For a complete analysis of how the Disneyland Crowd Calendar performed in 2022, check out Becky’s great post here.
As for this update, here is a month by month breakdown of what you can expect.
Almost no changes for March. All of the changes that were made are small, a rise or drop of one index point. The west coast Food and Wine Festival begins on March 3 and you can also see Disneyland After Dark dates on the calendar starting March 7.
Only minor changes for April as well. The only date with a change of more than 1 index point is Easter Monday, April 10 at Disney California Adventure. It increase two points to a ‘8’.
You won’t notice many changes in May as a result of this update. There are only a handful of changes and all of them are by ‘1’ index point. When our model updates result in a change of only 1 index point that is usually a good sign that our predictions are well-tuned.
June is when it starts to get interesting. Our last update in August 2022 pushed some of these June crowd levels into the upper part of our scale. Some of that is being adjusted in this update. A lot of the ‘9’s and ’10’s are dropping to ‘7’s and ‘8’s. Once again, this might change if we hear of another summer promo for Californians.
A lot of the ’10’s at DCA in July are dropping by a point or two in this update. But a ‘8’ or ‘9’ is still a very busy day so you should definitely use a touring plan if you plan to visit either park in July.
Our crowd predictions for August 2022 proved to be too high in 2022 so many of the dates in August 2023 are seeing a drop in crowd level as well. Many of those ‘8’s and ‘9’s in August are now ‘5’s and ‘6’s. Some days are dropping even lower, to a ‘3’ or ‘4’. Most of these changes are at DCA where our 2022 Crowd Calendar tended to over-predict last year. Disneyland crowd level predictions remain relatively unchanged.
Crowd level predictions at DCA are returning to historically averages as a result of this update. The ‘2’s, ‘3’s and ‘4’s are coming back. Even the ’10’s’, ‘9’s and ‘8’s around Labor day are coming down a few points as well. Of course, September is a long way away so it is always possible that these numbers will be changed again before the fall arrives. For now, these are the best estimates based on current conditions.
October crowd level predictions are heading the other way, with mostly increases of 1 or 2 points. This is not surprising given how we tended to underpredict crowd levels last October (and overpredict September).
November and Beyond
The numbers in November and December won’t change that much as a result of this update.
If you have a trip to Disneyland planned that doesn’t include dates in September or October your plans likely won’t change that much as a result of this update. If they do, re-optimizing your plans is a very good idea, In fact, it never hurts to reoptimize.