Only 12 days ago we did a Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar update. We lowered our predictions for August and September, and we were a bit worried we were being too aggressive with reducing the crowd levels. Well, it turns out that we were not aggressive enough. Since the last update, we have been seeing Crowd Levels of 1 at all parks, with a few days hitting a 2 at the Magic Kingdom. With kids returning to school, and the COVID-19 Delta variant raging across the country we do not expect rising crowd levels before October. Jennifer’s blog post goes into all the signals we are seeing that supports our belief that crowds will remain low.
The charts below show the observed crowd levels for 2019 and 2021. The black line is the 2-week trend over time.
The Delta variant of COVID-19 and the return of masks indoors at Walt Disney World have taken their toll on attendance. Without an end in sight, we do not see high crowds returning to Walt Disney World.
Data is suggesting a plateau in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Florida. Knowing that cases are still rising across the country and many Florida schools are returning without a mask mandate, I expect to see new cases will increase in two weeks.
October and Beyond
At this time we are not adjusting crowd levels beyond September. People are canceling vacations after September, but at this point, we don’t know when guests will feel comfortable traveling to Florida or Walt Disney World. We know some guests have been holding off their vacation until the 50th anniversary, and some will want to be at Walt Disney World on October 1, for the anniversary. Any bump in attendance will be short-lived. Disney’s celebration is going to last 18 months, and more attractions will be open in 2022. If you are going to visit Walt Disney World once during the 50th anniversary, 2022 is going to be a better choice.
Let us know in the comments if you have changed your plans for visiting Walt Disney World.