Happy New Year!
Back in June and July, we mentioned that there will be tweaks to the Crowd Calendar in 2017. The changes are minor and are intended to better differentiate the crowd levels on different days. Looking back at the 2016 data, the crowd levels were skewed. We want the distribution to be a “normal” or bell-shaped curve. Having half the days in a year a 8, 9, or 10, is not good. We are not re-writing history; we are re-defining what the crowd levels mean. For example, an average wait time of 100 minutes at Space Mountain was a “10,” but with the 2017 adjustment it will be an “8.” It will now take an average wait time at Space Mountain to be above 127 minutes to be considered a 10. Wait times have increased, so an adjustment is needed.
What Is Not Changing
Crowd levels are based on wait times at core attractions. Each of the core attractions is scored on a scale from “1” to “10.” We show the details of the predicted and observed data that determined the crowd levels. Just go to the Crowd Calendar page and use “Jump to Date” on the left-hand sidebar to go to a specific date and then click “Click here to see individual attraction details used in determining crowd levels” under each park.
What Is Changing
The new algorithm will use daily average wait times between 11 am and 5 pm. This is dropping the 10 o’clock hour from the prior algorithm. The early hours of the day are not good indicators of an entire day’s crowd level. Attraction thresholds for assigning the “1” to “10” scale are being adjusted to ensure that attractions’ average wait time distributions are evenly covered.
We have applied the new algorithm to the 2015 and 2016 data on our Disney World Historical Crowds page. This will give the current analysis a historical view of the past data using the same method that the future crowd levels are using. The daily Crowd Calendar pages will only show the observed data. We are not showing the predicted values because we don’t have predictions based on the new algorithm. We have archived the old observed 2015 and 2016 Crowd Calendar data, and you can download it here.