Disney World Crowd Calendar Update For August 2022
Average Errors by Park
The Disney World Crowd Calendar is having a good year. Not perfect, but good. In 2017 our average year-to-date errors at the four parks were Magic Kingdom 1.29, EPCOT 1.36, Hollywood Studios 1.45 and Animal Kingdom 1.41. That was our best year. So far in 2022 our averages year-to-date are 1.39, 1.86, 1.63 and 1.34 respectively.
So Animal Kingdom is better than our best year, Magic Kingdom is slightly behind, Hollywood Studios is a little off, and EPCOT is bonkers. The error rate at EPCOT is relatively balanced with 105 days coming in higher than we predicted and 84 days coming in lower so it isn’t likely a systematic issue (like a bias or error in our models). We know that EPCOT only has a few major headliners so when one or two of those has an operational interruption the impact is significant. For the rest of 2022 you can expect EPCOT crowds to be the most unpredictable of the four parks. Sometimes it will be much more crowded than expected, sometimes much less. Not to sell ourselves short – about 40% of the time our predictions are within one index point too, which isn’t bad.
Increased Crowd Levels at Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom
Hollywood Studios is a very different park now than it was in 2017 so hitting that year’s target error is a little more difficult. We are consistently underpredicting crowd levels at Hollywood Studios so you can expect to see some increases on this update. Most notable attractions with longer than normal wait times are Tower of Terror, Alien Swirling Saucers and Toy Story Mania. Tower of Terror is particularly crowded these days with a staggering average posted wait time of 100 minutes since the beginning of April. Historically, that attraction averages a posted time of 50 minutes.
Changes at Animal Kingdom will be a little bit more subtle. So far in 2022 we have under predicted wait times at about half the rate that we saw at Hollywood Studios. There aren’t any standout attractions at Animal Kingdom in terms of underestimation but Flight of Passage and Kilimanjaro Safaris do show a trend in that direction. So, if you have plans to visit Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom this fall, our crowd level estimates are going up as a result of this update.
Why Update Now?
These decent results are why we haven’t updated the calendar in a while. We hesitate to tinker with the numbers when the accuracy is doing well. Still, it is important to refresh things now and then to make sure we are using the most up-to-date data in our predictions. Our indicators suggest that some fall dates are currently underpredicted so you will see some levels increase. However, September is still a great time to visit with most dates under a ‘5’.
This update includes changes to the calendar between August 15, 2022 and December 31, 2023 (even though only one year of forecasts are visible at a time). If you see a crowd level increase on one of your dates, don’t panic. If you follow a touring plan you can beat any crowd by minimizing your wait in line.
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What months of the year are the MOST reliable for the year with predictions for crowds? I just got back and initially I planned my trip for Aug 22-26 because the TP calendar had MK:3 Epcot:2 AK:2 and HS: 1 for each day I had planned. With the adjustment references in this article my EP went to a 4 and my HS went to a 4.
I checked the historical crowd record and my actual CL’s for these days were: MK:6 Epcot:6 AK:6 and HS: 6 . The calendar did not end up being very useful for my trip, but no worries, I used my touring plans, watched my touring plans teaches videos and also did genie+ so we had an awesome trip. But I’m curious what months can I look at a day that says crowd level 3 and it’s not going to be a 6 in reality?
Tracy, I’m “optimizing” after every ride because the app will utilize user submitted wait times during your day of visit, thus giving the most up-to-the-minute data to minimize wait times.
Makes sense! I appreciate the help! We are heading there next week and SO ready for this trip!! 🙂
Levels for my December trip jumped from an average of 4.0 to an average of 6.0… ouch.
In December my Epcot days jumped by 3/4 and Hollywood Studios by 3. It is still far enough away that maybe they will drop. Fingers Crossed.
Our level for our trip in 2 two weeks just jumpd from 1 or 2 on some days to a 5! Im pretty annoyed right now. 🙁
On both our previous trips to WDW, pre-pandemic and pre-Genie+, we used TP and LOVED IT! That said, feeling very nervous about our upcoming trip in two weeks because of not knowing when and what Genie+ LLs we’re going to be able to secure until we’re already in the moment. That uncertainty throughout the day feels like it makes having a set touring plan less useful? Or is there a hybrid way you’d recommend? Thank you!
Touring Plans has a ton of great information to answer all your questions, refer to the G+ Blog Articles, YouTube Videos, & Discussion Forums.
That uncertainty is why I decided not to buy Genie+ for my trip. Also means I won’t need to be glued to my phone as much. And I agree, I do feel Genie+ makes a touring plan less useful (unless you use Lines and recalculate things on the fly).
Will stick to a solid touring plan + purchase ILL for 1-2 attractions… that seems more predictable.
We did not purchase G+ for any days on our trip last month. We just rope dropped and stuck with a touring plan. Had a great time.
Question for anyone – is it better to keep “recalculating” your TP while in the park, or mainly stick with what you had planned before you entered the park? If you refresh, it doesn’t seem like it is worth the time to even set anything up as far as a plan of when to do what?? Thanks for any help on this!
I thought Tower of Terror was only running one side for multiple months up to mid June.
I spent three days last month at HS, and both shafts were running. However The rumor is that the shaft that did not shut down in the spring will be shut down this fall.