Walt Disney World Crowd Report – April 27 to May 3, 2014

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Predictions did very well again this week with only one prediction missing by more than two levels. Among the other 34 predictions, only 5 were off by more than one. Rain kept crowds moderate at the end of the week and despite some special events at three of the four parks, crowd levels were unaffected, as we predicted.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week.

The Crowd Report
The Crowd Report
The Walt Disney World Crowd Report
April 27 to May 3, 2014

Sunday, April 27, 2014 

Our prediction for moderate crowds on Sunday were accurate with a resort wide crowd level of ‘5’, one higher than the ‘4’ we predicted. Magic Kingdom and Epcot were also a ‘5’ on our scale, about what you would expect for late April. The other two parks went in opposite directions from our predictions. The Studios ended up two levels lower than the ‘4’ we predicted while Animal Kingdom was two levels higher than the predicted ‘5’.

Monday, April 28, 2014

No surprises on Monday however with every prediction hitting the mark within one index level. Guests of the Studios enjoyed the lowest crowds. That park only reached a level ‘2’ on our scale. Resort wide, no park hit a level above ‘5’ which kept the overall level at ‘4’, as predicted.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Tuesday’s crowds were one level lower (3) as predicted including a ‘5’ at Magic Kingdom. Epcot was a ‘2’, The Studios a ‘2’ and Animal Kingdom a ‘3’. Extra Magic Hours didn’t seem to have much impact on The Studios (morning) or Epcot (evening) according to average wait times like  65 minutes at Toy Story Mania and 41 minutes at Test Track.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Isolated thundershowers in the afternoon on Wednesday affected wait times at some parks. We saw surprisingly low crowds at The Studios (‘1’, we predicted ‘3’) and surprisingly high crowds at Epcot (‘5’, we predicted ‘2’).

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Happy 25th Anniversary Disney’s Hollywood Studios! The celebration of The Studios anniversary included a re-dedication ceremony, an early evening parade and a special fireworks display. Many questioned our predictions for a quiet crowd at The Studios on Thursday amid rumors of extra staffing and capacity crowds. Like our prediction for a quieter than normal Easter weekend our prediction proved correct on Thursday. We predicted ‘3’, it was a ‘2’. Granted, small crowds did attend the special ceremonies but overall the park was manageable. Toy Story Mania averaged 58 minutes between 10am and 5pm. That is very, very low.

Special events occurred at Magic Kingdom as well on Thursday where media invitees took a tour of the new Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. Crowds were a moderate ‘5’ on our scale as expected.

Friday, May 2, 2014

Epcot’s crowd on Friday was the biggest surprise of the week, reaching a level ‘7’ on our scale thanks to higher than expected waits at Soarin’ (79 minutes) and Mission: Space Orange (32 minutes). We predicted a ‘3’. Elsewhere, steady rain kept crowds moderate all day, including a ‘5’ at Magic Kingdom and a ‘4’ at Animal Kingdom as predicted. The Studios came in at a ‘3’, one level higher than expected.

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Rainy weather continued for most of Saturday keeping crowds moderate with a resort wide ‘4’. The Expedition Everest Challenge run at Animal Kingdom had no impact on crowds that day. Not surprising since the event occurred several hours after park closing. Only Epcot reached a level above ‘4’ on Saturday.


What to Expect This Week
May 4 to May 10, 2014

Crowd Calendar Example

Late April and Early May is a great time to visit Walt Disney World if you are not fond of crowds, especially early May. We don’t expect crowds to rise above average until late May. Watch out for Star Wars Weekends and Memorial Day, otherwise touring is generally relaxed. Note that Magic Kingdom is open for 24 hours on May 23.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

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Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

One thought on “Walt Disney World Crowd Report – April 27 to May 3, 2014

  • May 6, 2014 at 10:36 pm

    I have been watching your DW crowd tracker for the last several days, since the announcement of the opening of Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at MK on May 28. I have noticed that the expected crowd level has not changed for that day and the few days following. We are planning to be in MK on May 30; I just wondered if the crowd level might actually be higher than expected with the opening of a new ride. Any ideas on this?


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